Starting Pitcher Chart – April 9th, 2024

April 9, 2024

The chart includes their last season performance until we get some actual data for this year, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from last year (and then I’ll add the last 30 days outlook next month), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them (notes will be more statistical-based once we get some sample to work with). Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Starter Notes April 9, 2024

RK	PITCHER	GAME	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	wOBA RK Season	NOTE
1	Cole Ragans	KCR v HOU	x	x	x	96	3.47	1.16	18%	7th	Ragans is the lone ace at home so he gets the top spot even w/a tough draw
2	Tyler Glasnow	LAD at MIN	x	x	x	120	3.53	1.08	26%	5th	One inning shy of 3 QS so far, looking great… please stay healthy!
3	Corbin Burnes	BAL at BOS	x	x	x	193	3.39	1.07	17%	8th	Didn’t have his Ks last time out, but hasn’t walked a guy in 2 starts, either
4	Zack Wheeler	PHI at STL	x	x	x	192	3.61	1.08	22%	9th	Just a single earned run in 2 starts so far
5	George Kirby	SEA at TOR	x	x	x	190	3.35	1.04	20%	11th	Gonna take some time to work off the 6 ER v. CLE; I’m not worried
6	Joe Musgrove	SDP v CHC	x	x	x	97	3.05	1.14	19%	12th	I know it was irrational, but I needed to see a gem to calm down on him (6 IP/1 ER/7 Ks last time out)
7	Aaron Civale	TBR at LAA	x	x	x	122	3.46	1.16	16%	5th	Holding skills spike from post-trade last yr except w/out the .370 BABIP we saw last yr
8	Nathan Eovaldi	TEX v OAK	x	x	x	144	3.63	1.14	15%	29th	Great setup for a 3rd straight gem
9	Cristian Javier	HOU at KCR	x	x	x	162	4.56	1.27	14%	26th	Legit new changeup (31%) gives him a new dynamic
10	Reynaldo López	ATL v NYM	x	x	x	66	3.27	1.27	18%	16th	A sharp 2-step this wk (at MIA this wknd) could put him on the radar for v. TEX next wk
11	Chris Bassitt	TOR v SEA	x	x	x	200	3.60	1.18	15%	14th	Trips to TB and HOU has been a tough early draw; sticking w/him, though
12	Logan Allen	CLE v CHW	x	x	x	125	3.81	1.40	13%	30th	CLE will lean on Allen a bit more w/Bieber out for the year
13	Carlos Rodón	NYY v MIA	x	x	x	64	6.85	1.45	13%	21st	It hasn’t been great, but if you can’t run him v. MIA, should he be on the roster?
14	Frankie Montas	CIN v MIL		x	x	1	0.00	2.25	0%	24th	A former fave of mine is luring me in again; def running this to lock in the 2-step (at CWS this wknd)
15	Martín Pérez	PIT v DET		x	x	141	4.45	1.40	7%	28th	It’s kinda anyone v. DET right now
16	Patrick Sandoval	LAA v TBR		x	x	144	4.11	1.51	8%	4th	Don’t have to run him here, but a gem would make me consider him for at TBR/at CIN next wk as insane as that seems
17	Kyle Harrison	SFG v WSN		x	x	34	4.15	1.15	16%	25th	It’s just 9 starts dating back to last yr, but still haven’t seen his premium K% in the majors
18	Casey Mize	DET at PIT		x	x	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	20th	Bumpy debut, but we’re not letting not one start completely take us off the hype train
19	Brayan Bello	BOS v BAL			x	157	4.24	1.34	13%	17th	Doesn’t miss a ton of bats and BAL is always a bit scary
20	Merrill Kelly 켈리	ARI at COL			x	177	3.29	1.19	16%	19th	Just 4 ER in his L3 starts at COL since 2022… feeling lucky? (please be careful!)
21	A.J. Puk	MIA at NYY			x	56	3.97	1.18	27%	27th	He hasn’t looked anything like the potential breakout we saw last yr & this spring; totally understand a sit here
22	Sonny Gray	STL v PHI			x	184	2.79	1.15	17%	6th	Going to be limited to about 65 pitches so while he could get 5, it won’t be easy
23	Louie Varland	MIN v LAD				68	4.63	1.22	19%	2nd	Felt alright running Ober v. LAD, but I don’t have that kinda confidence in Varland yet
24	Joe Ross	MIL at CIN				#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	10th	Was very lucky to give up 0 ER in his debut w/8 base runners in 3.7 IP
25	Michael Soroka	CHW at CLE				32	6.40	1.48	12%	22nd	Running the ol’ negative K-BB rate thru 2 starts
26	Josiah Gray	WSN at SFG				159	3.91	1.46	9%	23rd	Has not been sharp in either of his 2 starts
27	Adrian Houser	NYM at ATL				111	4.12	1.39	13%	1st	Don’t even love the v. KC this wknd and then it’s at LAD next wk… yikes!
28	Alex Wood	OAK at TEX				97	4.33	1.43	7%	3rd	Crazy .500 BABIP thru 2 starts overshadows a decent 17% K-BB
29	Drew Smyly	CHC at SDP				142	5.00	1.43	14%	18th	No thanks
30	Cal Quantrill	COL v ARI				99	5.24	1.46	5%	13th	Quantrill really upped his degree of difficulty by taking his 11% K-BB to Coors

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues