Starting Pitcher Chart – April 8th, 2025
Daily SP Chart archive
Welcome back to the Daily SP Chart! I figure the first weekend was pretty straightforward which is why I didn’t fire it up on Thursday. Now that we’re in the swing of things, it’s time to get it going again.
The chart includes their performance for 2024 until we get some actual data for this year (I changed over in late-April last year), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from last year (not a perfect solution as teams change in the offseason, but better than using just a few days of data from this year), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
Another gem for Hunter Greene, coming an out shy of a shutout. I won’t run from my L if he pops off this year, not conceding after three starts, either. He does look amazing, though… does Sugarfree Red Bull go well with crow?
—
| RK | PITCHER | GAME | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | 2024 wOBA RK | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Skenes | PIT v STL | x | x | x | 133 | 1.96 | 0.95 | 27% | 15th | |
| 2 | Zack Wheeler | PHI at ATL | x | x | x | 200 | 2.57 | 0.96 | 22% | 17th | |
| 3 | Garrett Crochet | BOS v TOR | x | x | x | 146 | 3.58 | 1.07 | 30% | 28th | |
| 4 | Framber Valdez | HOU at SEA | x | x | x | 176 | 2.91 | 1.11 | 16% | 24th | |
| 5 | Tarik Skubal | DET v NYY | x | x | x | 192 | 2.39 | 0.92 | 26% | 10th | |
| 6 | Cole Ragans | KCR v MIN | x | x | x | 186 | 3.14 | 1.14 | 20% | 12th | |
| 7 | Chris Sale | ATL v PHI | x | x | x | 177 | 2.38 | 1.01 | 26% | 3rd | |
| 8 | Dylan Cease | SDP at ATH | x | x | x | 189 | 3.47 | 1.07 | 21% | 23rd | |
| 9 | Pablo López | MIN v KCR | x | x | x | 185 | 4.08 | 1.19 | 20% | 13th | Good surface results despite meager underlying stats (15% K-BB, 17% K) isn’t bad if you think the skills will come around to start earning the sparkling ratios, he remains a lineup fixture while we find out |
| 10 | Luis Castillo | SEA at HOU | x | x | x | 175 | 3.64 | 1.17 | 18% | 8th | Damn near carbon copy of López where his 10% K-BB is not earning the 3.00 ERA/1.00 WHIP; he’s riding the .182 BABIP; my confidence isn’t quite as high that he’ll smooth out, but I’m sticking around for a good while longer |
| 11 | Sonny Gray | STL at PIT | x | x | x | 166 | 3.84 | 1.09 | 24% | 28th | Gray’s the inverse of López & Castillo as his 29% K-BB is fantastic but a 2.5 HR9 has saddled him with a 5.73 ERA; his GB% is down nearly 20 pts which has to be a 2-start anomaly so I feel like the 21% HR/FB will also regress some especially if his skills remain this strong |
| 12 | Shane Baz | TBR v LAA | x | x | x | 79 | 3.06 | 1.06 | 13% | 27th | Great chance to stay hot with LAA coming to visit after an amazing season debut v. PIT |
| 13 | Clay Holmes | NYM v MIA | x | x | x | 63 | 3.14 | 1.30 | 17% | 21st | I don’t think these 2 starts should radically change the opinion you had of him in draft season; he hasn’t missed nearly as many bats as in ST, but a 68% GB rate can cover some gaps; hold firm |
| 14 | Nick Lodolo | CIN at SFG | x | x | x | 115 | 4.76 | 1.20 | 17% | 9th | Another in the López/Castillo camp, but to an extreme degree with a 1.42 ERA/0.71 WHIP despite a 10% K-BB; he has 0 BB and a .195 BABIP to make up the extreme lack of Ks; easy hold but curious to see where this goes |
| 15 | Freddy Peralta | MIL at COL | x | x | x | 173 | 3.68 | 1.21 | 18% | 16th | It’d be rash to make too much of 2 starts, but Peralta has a pair of gems in Coors w/13 and 10 Ks; the 13-K game was his MLB debut |
| 16 | Landen Roupp | SFG v CIN | x | x | 50 | 3.58 | 1.37 | 10% | 19th | Bumpy showing in HOU with a pair of 2-BB innings in 4+ IP of work, but there was good raw stuff & 8 Ks; real upside–needs to cut BB | |
| 17 | Shane Smith | CHW at CLE | x | x | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 26th | I took the shot on Smith this wk (BOS this wknd :grimace: ); some compelling stuff despite the negative K-BB rate in his debut, let’s riiide! | |
| 18 | Merrill Kelly 켈리 | ARI v BAL | x | x | 73 | 4.03 | 1.17 | 15% | 5th | Destroyed at NYY bc of course he was, I barely count that against him as it was an easy skip; back home where he thrives so now he’s in play | |
| 19 | Jameson Taillon | CHC v TEX | x | 165 | 3.27 | 1.13 | 14% | 24th | Bounced back well from opener dud and he’s right on that streamer line in 12s; maybe scoop him now if available in case you want the 2-step next wk | ||
| 20 | Ben Lively 라이블리 | CLE v CHW | x | 151 | 3.81 | 1.25 | 11% | 30th | CHW still worth picking on, but there’s always risk running Lively | ||
| 21 | Charlie Morton | BAL at ARI | x | 165 | 4.19 | 1.32 | 15% | 3rd | For all the hit fortune Castillo & Co. are getting, it has to go somewhere and it seems to have funneled directly to Morton w/a .478 BABIP despite an early return of his Ks (31%); might still skip this one and check-in for CLE/CIN at home next wk | ||
| 22 | Justin Wrobleski | LAD at WSN | x | 36 | 5.70 | 1.38 | 6% | 26th | Threw 5.7 scoreless at AAA so he’s stretched out; I’m down to give pretty much any LAD SP a look | ||
| 23 | Jeffrey Springs | ATH v SDP | 33 | 3.27 | 1.36 | 18% | 4th | 1 up, 1 down with the opponents and venues no doubt playing a role (at SEA/v CHC) making this a skip for me | |||
| 24 | Easton Lucas | TOR at BOS | 11 | 10.80 | 2.23 | 2% | 11th | Berríos was jumped to Monday so Lucas will go Tuesday, here’s my comment from yest: If there’s anything behind that 15% SwStr from his debut, he could survive this wk (at BAL this wknd), but I’m not paying to find out… will revisit after the 2-step | |||
| 25 | Carlos Carrasco | NYY at DET | 103 | 5.64 | 1.40 | 13% | 22nd | Not sure DET is an auto pick-on spot, espec. vR right now | |||
| 26 | Kyle Hendricks | LAA at TBR | 130 | 5.92 | 1.45 | 8% | 29th | ||||
| 27 | Connor Gillispie | MIA at NYM | 8 | 2.25 | 1.13 | 9% | 11th | ||||
| 28 | Kyle Freeland | COL v MIL | 113 | 5.24 | 1.41 | 12% | 13th | ||||
| 29 | Patrick Corbin | TEX v CHC | 174 | 5.62 | 1.50 | 11% | 16th | ||||
| 30 | Brad Lord | WSN v LAD | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 2nd |
Was Miami really 3rd in woba last year??
Dangit, that’s twice that pulled in the last 30 days of 2024 instead of the season… no they did not finish 3rd
Fixed it, it was just pulling in the Last 30 Days wOBA ranking from last yr and putting it in the full season column on one of my sheets in Excel. Got it fixed up for today’s board & going forward