Starting Pitcher Chart – April 30th, 2024
Daily SP Chart archive
Y’all, why do I keep starting Griffin Canning? Like what is this power he has over me?!
Tuesday morning update:
- Yu Darvish is off the IL and starting for SDP… he is a toss-up for me depending on what other options you have with a slight lean toward getting him back in where you can. I’d say it’s 52/48 to the yes for me. I’ll be putting him back in my lineup after this start almost regardless of how it goes, though.
| RK | PITCHER | GAME | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | wOBA RK | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Logan Webb | SFG at BOS | x | x | x | 38 | 2.33 | 1.11 | 12% | 8th | The stud righty headlines a fun day with several big arms on the docket |
| 2 | Freddy Peralta | MIL v TBR | x | x | x | 28 | 3.18 | 0.99 | 25% | 17th | |
| 3 | Cole Ragans | KCR at TOR | x | x | x | 30 | 3.90 | 1.43 | 20% | 8th | |
| 4 | Luis Castillo | SEA v ATL | x | x | x | 34 | 4.15 | 1.30 | 24% | 2nd | Castillo is on the shortlist of aces I will start against ATL |
| 5 | Reynaldo López | ATL at SEA | x | x | x | 25 | 0.72 | 0.88 | 17% | 22nd | The 97% LOB and .220 BABIP will no doubt regress, but he’s good enough to be a mid-3.00s ERA Win machine even at his regressed level |
| 6 | Jack Flaherty | DET v STL | x | x | x | 29 | 4.91 | 1.16 | 26% | 24th | Only Joe Ryan (29% K-BB) and Jared Jones (28%) are topping Flaherty’s 26% K-BB right now |
| 7 | José Berríos | TOR v KCR | x | x | x | 36 | 1.23 | 1.04 | 11% | 14th | |
| 8 | Mitch Keller | PIT at OAK | x | x | x | 35 | 5.14 | 1.49 | 12% | 29th | If you can’t run him at OAK, send him to the wire |
| 9 | MacKenzie Gore | WSN at TEX | x | x | 26 | 3.12 | 1.38 | 21% | 18th | 15% SwStr v. LAD was his 2nd-best this yr, fueling some confidence for this gm espec. if you’re considering the 2-step in a weekly lineup lg | |
| 10 | Spencer Turnbull | PHI at LAA | x | x | 27 | 1.33 | 0.85 | 19% | 20th | Hanging on another week as they’ll let all 6 SPs get a start this week, but don’t cut him even if he does get a skip soon; the cooled down version still has upside | |
| 11 | Simeon Woods Richardson | MIN at CHW | x | x | 11 | 2.45 | 1.00 | 20% | 30th | Opening at DET, CHW, at CHW is a remarkably soft landing as he transitions into the rotation | |
| 12 | Ryan Feltner | COL at MIA | x | x | 25 | 5.68 | 1.74 | 17% | 27th | Isn’t exactly invincible on the road, but I looove this matchup | |
| 13 | Tyler Anderson | LAA v PHI | x | x | 30 | 1.78 | 1.05 | 7% | 9th | ||
| 14 | Jon Gray | TEX v WSN | x | x | 24 | 2.92 | 1.46 | 19% | 10th | ||
| 15 | Tyler Alexander | TBR at MIL | x | x | 24 | 4.74 | 1.30 | 12% | 28th | Great spot and he’s allowed just 4 ER in 15.3 IP after 9 in his first 9.3 IP | |
| 16 | Kyle Gibson | STL at DET | x | x | 31 | 4.35 | 1.19 | 6% | 28th | ||
| 17 | Jordan Montgomery | ARI v LAD | x | 13 | 2.08 | 0.85 | 12% | 10th | I don’t blame anyone for sitting him, it’s probably the prudent move | ||
| 18 | Nestor Cortes | NYY at BAL | x | 36 | 3.50 | 1.00 | 19% | 3rd | BAL is a viable skip with any non-ace; for Cortes specifically the bullpen and matchup mitigate his W upside | ||
| 19 | Landon Knack | LAD at ARI | x | 11 | 3.27 | 1.00 | 11% | 26th | Soft landing w/B2B outings v. WSN, this is a bit more difficult, but not something run from if you’re chasing Wins | ||
| 20 | Dean Kremer | BAL v NYY | x | 27 | 4.61 | 1.06 | 18% | 4th | High-risk/high-reward: his great outings have high W probability (even if he’s just 1-2, the Ws will start coming if he has 4 good-great starts per 5 outings) and he’s added some Ks early on (+3 K% to 24%) | ||
| 21 | Javier Assad | CHC at NYM | x | 27 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 16% | 12th | |||
| 22 | Sean Manaea | NYM v CHC | x | 24 | 3.33 | 1.44 | 12% | 2nd | 4 BB ran up his pitch count to 101 and left him an out shy of 5 IP | ||
| 23 | Hunter Brown | HOU v CLE | x | 17 | 9.68 | 2.49 | 5% | 19th | Wasn’t great at WSN after solid 6 IP/2 ER v. ATL… running the 2-step if I have him, but my confidence has waned | ||
| 24 | Nick Martinez | CIN at SDP | x | 23 | 5.48 | 1.39 | 15% | 5th | |||
| 25 | Cooper Criswell | BOS v SFG | x | 11 | 2.38 | 1.15 | 10% | 16th | He’s coming off 5 scoreless w/a solid matchup; decent lineup, but shaky bullpen support undercutting W potential | ||
| 26 | Roddery Muñoz | MIA v COL | x | 5 | 3.60 | 0.60 | 33% | 15th | Live arm looked good at CHC in MLB debut and the Rockies are always worth a look away from Coors | ||
| 27 | Jhony Brito | SDP v CIN | 14 | 4.40 | 1.40 | 5% | 21st | ||||
| 28 | Alex Wood | OAK v PIT | 27 | 6.59 | 1.98 | 9% | 12th | ||||
| 29 | Carlos Carrasco | CLE at HOU | 23 | 4.63 | 1.63 | 7% | 7th | ||||
| 30 | Michael Soroka | CHW v MIN | 29 | 6.83 | 1.69 | -3% | 18th |
The chart includes their 2024 stats (this changed over from last year’s stats on April 22nd), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far (this is changed as of April 11th), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them (notes will be more statistical-based once we get some sample to work with). Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
Looks like Darvish is returning today. Would you start him or hold off?
I’m open to getting him back in where I can, but it’s a toss-up depending on options. In weekly moves leagues, SD has already played so he’s locked, but daily movers can get Darvish back in.
Thanks Paul!!