Starting Pitcher Chart – April 1st, 2025
Daily SP Chart archive
Welcome back to the Daily SP Chart! The chart includes their performance for 2024 until we get some actual data for this year (I changed over in late-April last year), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from last year (not a perfect solution as teams change in the offseason, but better than using just a few days of data from this year), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
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Let me know if you have any questions or comments below!
| RK | PITCHER | GAME | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | wOBA RK | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Logan Gilbert | SEA v DET | x | x | x | 208 | 3.23 | 0.89 | 23% | 22nd | |
| 2 | Corbin Burnes | ARI at NYY | x | x | x | 194 | 2.92 | 1.10 | 17% | 1st | |
| 3 | Chris Sale | ATL at LAD | x | x | x | 177 | 2.38 | 1.01 | 26% | 2nd | Aces only at LAD and Sale is, of course, an ace |
| 4 | Logan Webb | SFG at HOU | x | x | x | 204 | 3.47 | 1.23 | 15% | 8th | |
| 5 | Michael King | SDP v CLE | x | x | x | 173 | 2.95 | 1.19 | 19% | 26th | |
| 6 | Justin Steele | CHC at ATH | x | x | x | 134 | 3.07 | 1.10 | 18% | 14th | |
| 7 | Sandy Alcantara | MIA v NYM | x | x | x | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0% | 11th | |
| 8 | Nathan Eovaldi | TEX at CIN | x | x | x | 170 | 3.80 | 1.11 | 18% | 19th | CIN could become that avoid kind of offense at home if they meet expectations and I know they cooked Rocker, but I’m still running someone like Eovaldi until CIN proves it |
| 9 | Kodai Senga | NYM at MIA | x | x | x | 5 | 3.38 | 0.56 | 40% | 21st | Perfect landing spot to ease him into the season after just 3 ST starts |
| 10 | Shane Baz | TBR v PIT | x | x | x | 79 | 3.06 | 1.06 | 13% | 28th | While I have some skepticism on him overall, he’s a firm start in matchups like this |
| 11 | Casey Mize | DET at SEA | x | x | x | 102 | 4.49 | 1.47 | 11% | 18th | Open to running him anywhere with a trip to T-Mobile Park on deck |
| 12 | José Berríos | TOR v WSN | x | x | 192 | 3.60 | 1.15 | 13% | 20th | Another dud would raise eyebrows, but I’m not benching him off a dud v. a great offfense (BAL) | |
| 13 | Hayden Wesneski | HOU v SFG | x | x | 67 | 3.86 | 1.14 | 16% | 25th | Eager to see one of my breakout starters debut | |
| 14 | Dustin May | LAD v ATL | x | x | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0% | 17th | I know ATL isn’t hitting so I see streaming him anywhere, but if he walks a few, we’re almost certainly looking at sub-5 IP | |
| 15 | Luis Severino | ATH v CHC | x | x | 182 | 3.91 | 1.24 | 13% | 14th | Worked around 4 BB bc of the SEA’s offense and home park; CHC might not be as forgiving | |
| 16 | Will Warren | NYY v ARI | x | 22 | 10.32 | 1.90 | 17% | 3rd | I’m running the 2-start w/at PIT this wknd, but I’m OK skipping ARI in daily moves lgs | ||
| 17 | Shane Smith | CHW v MIN | x | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0% | 10th | Excited for the Rule 5 standout, but tempering expectations even against a sputtering MIN; going in eyes wide open if I throw him | ||
| 18 | Michael Lorenzen | KCR at MIL | x | 130 | 3.31 | 1.24 | 7% | 7th | Standard streamer with an OK matchup; might pick him up early for next wk’s 2-step (MIN/at CLE) even if you don’t like this start | ||
| 19 | Matthew Liberatore | STL v LAA | 86 | 4.40 | 1.27 | 13% | 20th | Kind of a sucker for Liberatore dating back to his prospect days, so I’m keeping tabs on him (at PIT/PHI 2-step next wk) | |||
| 20 | Logan Allen | CLE at SDP | 28 | 5.46 | 1.50 | 9% | 19th | Similar to Liberatore as I’m a long-time fan so keeping a close eye on him in case this goes well (CHW/KCR 2-step next wk) | |||
| 21 | Kyle Hendricks | LAA at STL | 130 | 5.92 | 1.45 | 8% | 15th | ||||
| 22 | Simeon Woods Richardson | MIN at CHW | 133 | 4.17 | 1.29 | 12% | /30th | I’m off the MIN streams until I see something from them (Ober/Paddack smacked me)… plus I’m not the biggest SWR fan | |||
| 23 | Trevor Williams | WSN at TOR | 66 | 2.03 | 1.04 | 16% | 12th | Was running hot when he got hurt last year, not sure it was a legit breakout | |||
| 24 | Carson Spiers | CIN v TEX | 90 | 5.46 | 1.53 | 13% | 24th | ||||
| 25 | Chad Patrick | MIL v KCR | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 13th | ||||
| 26 | TBD | PIT at TBR | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 29th |
Hey Paul, would these rankings be good for daily fantasy like Draftkings?
yes, definitely viable for DFS-based stuff
thanks Paul, is there for hitters to look at as well? or someone that does a chart for hitting vs SP
You can mostly reverse engineer it. I.e., take hitters who are facing the bottom ranked SPs
thats a good point