Starting Pitcher Chart – April 11th, 2025
Daily SP Chart archive
Welcome back to the Daily SP Chart! I figure the first weekend was pretty straightforward which is why I didn’t fire it up on Thursday. Now that we’re in the swing of things, it’s time to get it going again.
The chart includes their performance for 2024 until we get some actual data for this year (I changed over in late-April last year), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from last year (not a perfect solution as teams change in the offseason, but better than using just a few days of data from this year), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
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| RK | PITCHER | GAME | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | 2024 wOBA RK | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacob deGrom | TEX at SEA | x | x | x | 10 | 1.69 | 1.13 | 30% | 18th | |
| 2 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | LAD v CHC | x | x | x | 90 | 3.00 | 1.11 | 23% | 14th | |
| 3 | Tanner Bibee | CLE v KCR | x | x | x | 173 | 3.47 | 1.12 | 20% | 13th | |
| 4 | Bryce Miller | SEA v TEX | x | x | x | 180 | 2.94 | 0.98 | 18% | 24th | |
| 5 | Aaron Nola | PHI at STL | x | x | x | 199 | 3.57 | 1.20 | 18% | 15th | |
| 6 | Taj Bradley | TBR v ATL | x | x | x | 138 | 4.11 | 1.22 | 19% | 17th | One bad inning (4 ER/2 HR at TEX) makes his early work look modest (4.91 ERA), but the 23% K-BB is all I need right now to stick w/him |
| 7 | Kris Bubic | KCR at CLE | x | x | x | 30 | 2.67 | 1.02 | 28% | 8th | 2 fantastic starts w/16 Ks and just 7 H allowed in 12.7 IP v. a pair of playoff tms (MIL/BAL) |
| 8 | Reese Olson | DET at MIN | x | x | x | 112 | 3.53 | 1.18 | 15% | 10th | LAD caught up to him in the 5th of his season debut, but I’m standing by him everywhere for another several starts |
| 9 | Nick Pivetta | SDP v COL | x | x | x | 145 | 4.14 | 1.13 | 23% | 16th | 36-pitch 2nd inn. at CHC was vintage Piv and nottt in a good way; great bounceback spot here before a CHC rematch next wk |
| 10 | Brady Singer | CIN v PIT | x | x | x | 179 | 3.71 | 1.27 | 15% | 28th | A 4-run 5th at MIL really cooked the outing, buuttt the 7 K/1 BB was still strong and v. PIT is an easy go right now |
| 11 | Mitchell Parker | WSN at MIA | x | x | x | 151 | 4.29 | 1.30 | 14% | 29th | Schedule finally relents after PHI/ARI to start so hopefully Parker can stay hot here |
| 12 | Robbie Ray | SFG at NYY | x | x | 30 | 4.70 | 1.14 | 22% | 10th | SEA couldn’t punish him for 5 BB/2 K effort w/just 1 ER in 6 IP; NYY won’t be so forgiving, but we’re running him | |
| 13 | Griffin Canning | NYM at ATH | x | x | 171 | 5.19 | 1.40 | 9% | 23rd | I’m in on the Canning Renaissance, but I’m showing some caution w/running guys at ATH, espec. guys w/historical HR issues so I understand skipping here | |
| 14 | Bowden Francis | TOR at BAL | x | x | 103 | 3.30 | 0.93 | 17% | 5th | Got the BABIP Boyz down here w/Francis & Blanco; BF is maintaining his hit suppression but his BB% has doubled to 11% thru 2 starts… | |
| 15 | Ronel Blanco | HOU v LAA | x | 167 | 2.80 | 1.09 | 14% | 27th | …RB meanwhile has seen his Stuff+ plummet 20 pts to 72 w/his BABIP & BB% soaring to .421 & 18%, respectively | ||
| 16 | David Festa | MIN v DET | x | 64 | 4.90 | 1.32 | 19% | 22nd | I like Festa, but I loove Zebby so I was hoping he’d get the first call; DET isn’t an auto-start so I’m down to roster Festa but not necessarily run him yet | ||
| 17 | Eduardo Rodriguez | ARI v MIL | x | 50 | 5.04 | 1.50 | 13% | 13th | Big 12-K effort last time out helped soften the blow on a 3-run 1st inn. | ||
| 18 | Andre Pallante | STL v PHI | x | 121 | 3.78 | 1.30 | 9% | 9th | Early 15% SwStr and 78% GB are neat, but it’s 9 innings and there’s definitely risking running him anywhere | ||
| 19 | Matthew Boyd | CHC at LAD | x | 39 | 2.72 | 1.13 | 20% | 2nd | His NL West tour continues after 11 scoreless at ARI & v. SDP, but it’s still aces-only v. LAD… I meeeaannn, maaayyybee… LAD hasn’t hit vL… I dunno, be careful! | ||
| 20 | Sean Newcomb | BOS at CHW | x | 10 | 6.30 | 1.70 | -2% | 30th | He’s living on the wire and the .538 BABIP exposes just how thin his margins are; if you’re ever gonna stream him, this is the spot | ||
| 21 | Bailey Falter | PIT at CIN | x | 142 | 4.43 | 1.29 | 9% | 22nd | Meltdown 5th inn. v. NYY sank him (5 ER), but this is a streamable spot as CIN is really sputtering | ||
| 22 | JP Sears | ATH v NYM | x | 180 | 4.38 | 1.22 | 12% | 5th | Sharp at SEA, survived at COL; needs to tap into 12% SwStr to improve his 18% K or this could go sideways; HR-heavy lean means there’s always looming downside | ||
| 23 | AJ Smith-Shawver | ATL at TBR | 4 | 0.00 | 1.15 | 11% | 29th | Might just wanna see a good one before diving in, especially w/a minor lg park on tap | |||
| 24 | Tomoyuki Sugano | BAL v TOR | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 12th | A 5% K-BB just can’t survive, lowest qual’d last yr was 9% (Canning!); he has to have a tiny BB% to live w/the terrible K% so 7% is actually too high rn | |||
| 25 | Germán Márquez | COL at SDP | 4 | 6.75 | 2.25 | -5% | 4th | I want to be able to trust him on the road, but it’s not exactly Márquez of old just yet w/a 2% K-BB & 9% SwStr | |||
| 26 | Chad Patrick | MIL at ARI | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 3rd | This would move Patrick from Saturday so maybe it’ll be Jose Quintana (0 IP at AAA) getting called up… not looking to start either at ARI | |||
| 27 | Jack Kochanowicz | LAA at HOU | 65 | 3.99 | 1.19 | 6% | 8th | It’s not that he can’t be successful for multiple starts in a row, it’s that the duds will erase 3-4 gems and there’s no K% upside (9% SwStr) | |||
| 28 | Cal Quantrill | MIA v WSN | 148 | 4.98 | 1.52 | 6% | 20th | The NL’s Kochanowicz | |||
| 29 | Davis Martin | CHW v BOS | 50 | 4.32 | 1.46 | 11% | 6th | ||||
| 30 | Marcus Stroman | NYY v SFG | 154 | 4.31 | 1.47 | 8% | 25th |
Off topic but it would be nice to have aHitter Probable grid, like the pitching grid but it shows all upcoming pitchers a team will be facing. You can do it with the Pitcher Probable grid but you have to jump around to figure it out.
I say this as someone rostering Joc who needs to know whether the Rangers are facing any lefties coming up.
(BTW, it flies under the radar but Joc has actually become an OK hitter against lefties the last few years with a wRC+ over 100 in 4 of the last 5 years. He clearly doesn’t hit for the same pop against LHP but he draws a TON of walks. Every team has used him as pretty much a platoon bat but the Rangers probably should give him a shot at being the everyday DH at this point)