Starting Pitcher Chart – April 10th, 2024
Daily SP Chart archive
The internet has done a lot to foster the fantasy baseball community, but those innovations came at the expanse of a scourge: the up-to-the-second standings. They really don’t do us a ton of good at any point in the season, but they can actively hurt fantasy managers early on. Well at least how we react to them can. Your team doesn’t really have clear needs yet, at least not ones that weren’t there coming out of the draft. The exception of course would be a major injury that undercuts you in a stat.
The first two guys just eclipsed 60 PA on April 8th meaning no one is really off to a legitimately slow start just yet. That doesn’t mean you can’t monitor their skills, but there hasn’t really been much that is actionable thus far, outside of injuries. You can obviously churn 2-3 of your late rounders, but if you’re getting rid of any of your foundation (~top 2/3rds of your roster), then you’re probably doing too much. Trust the guys you drafted for some real time before declaring them cuttable. Just be careful out there.
| RK | PITCHER | GAME | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | wOBA RK Season | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tanner Bibee | CLE v CHW | x | x | x | 142 | 2.98 | 1.18 | 16% | 30th | Great bounce back after his opening dud assuaged any tinge of fear |
| 2 | Bobby Miller | LAD at MIN | x | x | x | 124 | 3.76 | 1.10 | 17% | 5th | I think the CHC outing is just a bad outing, still a rotation mainstay |
| 3 | Aaron Nola | PHI at STL | x | x | x | 193 | 4.46 | 1.15 | 20% | 9th | That dud v. ATL will stain his overall line for a while so don’t panic |
| 4 | Logan Gilbert | SEA at TOR | x | x | x | 190 | 3.73 | 1.08 | 20% | 11th | New pitch mix yielding early K% results (+6 pts to 31% K) |
| 5 | Dylan Cease | SDP v CHC | x | x | x | 177 | 4.58 | 1.42 | 17% | 12th | Opened w/SFG 2x and handled them well; this will be a nice matchup to up his degree of difficulty |
| 6 | Kutter Crawford | BOS v BAL | x | x | x | 129 | 4.04 | 1.11 | 19% | 17th | 3 BB ran up his pitch count to 90 so he was lifted an out shy of the potential W |
| 7 | Cody Bradford | TEX v OAK | x | x | x | 56 | 5.30 | 1.21 | 17% | 29th | Could be his last scheduled start for a bit w/Lorenzen on the horizon, but don’t cut him until they say he’s out |
| 8 | Marcus Stroman | NYY v MIA | x | x | x | 136 | 3.95 | 1.26 | 12% | 21st | GB% rate is down 8 pts off his career mark (57%), but otherwise has looked very Stromany |
| 9 | Jordan Hicks | SFG v WSN | x | x | x | 65 | 3.29 | 1.36 | 17% | 25th | 1 BB in 2 starts is definitely the key takeaway from this tiny sample |
| 10 | Hunter Greene | CIN v MIL | x | x | x | 112 | 4.82 | 1.42 | 21% | 24th | 0 HR in 2 starts is just run-hot, he still lives in the air (35% GB rate); but if you’ve got him, you start him |
| 11 | Zack Littell | TBR at LAA | x | x | x | 90 | 4.10 | 1.18 | 16% | 15th | Looks great 2 starts in and lines up for a usable 2-step next week (LAA, at NYY) |
| 12 | Seth Lugo | KCR v HOU | x | x | 146 | 3.57 | 1.20 | 17% | 7th | We’re not seeking out HOU starts even w/their 4-8 record; that lineup can still bang | |
| 13 | Yusei Kikuchi | TOR v SEA | x | x | 167 | 3.86 | 1.27 | 19% | 17th | There’s always meltdown potential bc of the career long HR issue, but there’s still upside w/that risk | |
| 14 | Lance Lynn | STL v PHI | x | x | 183 | 5.73 | 1.39 | 15% | 6th | He’s a higher risk Kikuchi, but same general profile | |
| 15 | Ryan Weathers | MIA at NYY | x | 57 | 6.55 | 1.68 | 5% | 9th | Don’t love the matchup; job could be in jeopardy w/E.Cabrera and Garrett working back | ||
| 16 | Wade Miley | MIL at CIN | x | 120 | 3.14 | 1.14 | 8% | 12th | I’d trust him more if this wasn’t his first start of the season; so *deeeeep* lgs only | ||
| 17 | Patrick Corbin | WSN at SFG | x | 180 | 5.20 | 1.48 | 8% | 28th | SwStr spike (+5 pts to 14%) hasn’t yielded legitimate K% gains (+1 to 17%) | ||
| 18 | Erick Fedde 페디 | CHW at CLE | x | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 22nd | 1.45 WHIP warns of future trouble for that 2.79 ERA if it doesn’t improve | ||
| 19 | Allan Winans | ATL v NYM | x | 32 | 5.29 | 1.39 | 18% | 16th | Not averse to picking on NYM in hopes of a cheap win, just understand there’s blowup downside | ||
| 20 | José Soriano | LAA v TBR | x | 42 | 3.64 | 1.33 | 18% | 4th | Live armed righty (99 mph FB) getting a shot to start could be intriguing; worth keeping tabs on | ||
| 21 | Kyle Hendricks | CHC at SDP | 137 | 3.74 | 1.20 | 11% | 18th | Sit here and revisit for at ARI/MIA 2-step next wk | |||
| 22 | Cole Irvin | BAL at BOS | 77 | 4.42 | 1.28 | 14% | 16th | Be careful in Fenway… | |||
| 23 | Chris Paddack | MIN v LAD | 5 | 5.40 | 1.40 | 32% | 2nd | Can’t run him v. LAD as he’s pretty Varlandian and they dropped a tight 6 on him w/2 HRs | |||
| 24 | Ross Stripling | OAK at TEX | 89 | 5.36 | 1.35 | 14% | 3rd | Might be some streamable spots over the year, but not at TEX | |||
| 25 | Spencer Arrighetti | HOU at KCR | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 26th | Interesting prospect I’ll be watching; does have a 14% BB in 72 AAA IP | |||
| 26 | Jose Quintana | NYM at ATL | 75 | 3.57 | 1.31 | 11% | 1st | No way | |||
| 27 | Austin Gomber | COL v ARI | 139 | 5.50 | 1.49 | 7% | 21st | Don’t get Gombered | |||
| 28 | Tommy Henry | ARI at COL | 89 | 4.15 | 1.36 | 8% | 26th | No |
The chart includes their last season performance until we get some actual data for this year, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from last year (and then I’ll add the last 30 days outlook next month), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them (notes will be more statistical-based once we get some sample to work with). Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
His palms are sweaty, knees weak, arms are heavy,
There’s vomit on his sweater already, Spencer Arrighetti
👏🏻👏🏻 very well done!
He’s nervous, but on the surface, he looks calm and ready
to throw gas, but he keeps on forgetting
the pitchcom, the KC crowd goes so loud
he’s throwin’ but gettin’ no batters out
he’s chokin’ now, everybody’s walkin’ now
Espada’s come out, outing up, over, blaow
omgggg what an amazing follow up!!!