Starting Pitcher Avg EV Regressors — Through June 4, 2023

Yesterday, I shared and discussed six starting pitchers who have improved their average exit velocity (EV) against the most compared to 2022. While the correlation isn’t strong, there definitely is a positive correlation between EV and BABIP, whereby the higher the EV allowed, the higher the BABIP, and vice versa. Let’s now flip to the pitchers who have allowed a higher average EV this year.

Avg EV Regressors
Name 2022 2023 Diff
Dylan Cease 86.8 91.1 4.3
Zac Gallen 87.8 91.2 3.4
Brady Singer 89.3 92.7 3.4
Marco Gonzales 86.7 89.7 3.0
Bryce Elder 88.1 91.1 3.0
Braxton Garrett 89.4 92.2 2.8

After a strikeout rate spike driven breakout in 2021, followed by a sub-3.00 ERA in 2022, Dylan Cease has made himself into the elite pitcher his former top prospect status suggested he was capable of. Sadly, that version of Cease has been MIA this year. His average EV against has jumped above 90 MPH for the first time, even including his first two seasons when he wasn’t good. He has lot a mile per hour on all his pitches, but still averages nearly 96 MPH with his four-seamer, so you wouldn’t think the drop in velocity would have such a dramatic effect on his EV against. His SwStk% and strikeout rate have also collapsed, which is bad news for a pitcher who still struggles with control issues and can’t see to get his walk rate into single digits for good. Maybe it really just comes down to his velocity, so he’s a tough one to evaluate for the rest of the year.

I am guessing no one that owns Zac Gallen cares about his appearance on this list. What’s interesting here is that his EV surge has coincided with his BABIP spiking to worse than league average for the first time. In his first four seasons Gallen has posted below league average BABIP marks, and even including this season, owns just a .271 BABIP. So his current .316 mark is very out of character and quite surprising. One look at his batted ball profile explains a lot — his LD% has skyrocketed to an absurd 27.5%. It’s the third highest mark among qualified starters. That’s something new for him as he posted better than average marks, below 20%, the last two years. His pitch mix and velocity are generally in line with history, so it’s baffling why he has allowed so many line drives. HIs strikeout and walk rates are also normal. I don’t know what’s going on here, but guessing both his LD% and BABIP will improve the rest of the way, while his HR/FB rate rises.

Brady Singer’s average EV has jumped above 90 MPH for the first time as well and it’s killing his BABIP, which is up to .341. Without a strong strikeout rate and pinpoint control, that results in far too many baserunners. It’s no wonder his ERA stands at an ugly 6.45. His sinker velocity is also down about a mile per hour, as is his slider. Since he’s essentially a two-pitch pitcher, he can’t afford to lose velocity on those two pitches. He seems pretty unstartable right now, and unless he regained that lost velocity, I don’t see him becoming startable again.

This is the highest average EV allowed of Marco Gonzales’ career, who actually just hit the injured list. It has led to his first .300+ BABIP since 2018 and is a reminder that betting on a low strikeout guy to maintain value based on a low BABIP is a risky endeavor.

Bryce Elder is allowing lots of hard contact, but has somehow managed to maintain a sub-2.00 ERA, despite mediocre strikeout and walk rates. I do love the high GB%, putting him in the company of guys like Alex Cobb and Marcus Stroman. Despite the hard contact, he has still managed a league average .291 BABIP. It’s the 87.4% LOB% that has fueled the sub-2.00 ERA, but there’s little chance that lasts. I don’t think he implodes, but his ERA is clearly heading higher, and perhaps much higher the rest of the way.

Gosh, Braxton Garrett has struggled with BABIP throughout his short career, as he sits with a career .335 mark over about a season’s worth of innings pitched. It’s pretty amazing that he has missed so many bats when he barely throws over 90 MPH. With a CSW% of 31.1%, you would expect a much higher strikeout rate, so overall this skill set looks like it could be solid. However, he allows a high rate of line drives and rarely generates pop-ups, both of which seem to be a skill, or lack thereof. I still prefer betting on these types than the Marco Gonzaleses of the world.





Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.

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