Spring Training Notes (3/23/17): Updated Friday Afternoon

This post will provide updated information on the upcoming draft weekend. I’ll update as I find relevant news over the weekend.

• A notice to those owners setting their Sunday waiver claims: I will be hosting a RotoGraphs chat every Sunday during the season from 8:00 pm EST for an hour or so starting this weekend. It will run every Sunday during the season. I may not host it every week but someone will fill in.

Friday Afternoon Update

• Erick Aybar has opted out of his Twins contract meaning Eduardo Escobar will be the Twins the second baseman until Jorge Polanco returns from this 80-game suspension. As a replacement, owners could do worse than Escobar as a replacement. He’s projected for home runs in the high teens with a few steals.

• Albert Almora Jr. seems to be batting 8th quite a bit. His value swings a ton depending if he is leading off or in the 8th spot (fewer AB and SB).

• Here are the spring training team stolen base totals with the new managers in yellow.

• The Mariners are running which is good for Dee Gordon.
• Of the teams with new managers, the Phillies and the Yankees have been the most aggressive.
• I’m worried about Mookie Betts with the Red Sox near the bottom. Several people on Twitter have pointed out that the Red Sox plan on running more this year. Since spring training stolen base rates weakly correlate to in-season rates, I don’t believe the Red Sox will steal more this year.

Friday Morning (initial post)

• For one-stop shopping on injury news and return times, follow MLB.com’s Injury Report.

• Miguel Cabrera is still missing his elite power. He has hit two home runs this spring but neither has been impressive.

Right now he looks to be a high-average, 20-homer first baseman.

• While Cabrera hasn’t hit the ball hard, Michael Brantley did this in his first at-bat back (27-second mark).

That swing should move him up at least 100 spots in ADP from a current value of 241.

• Bryce Harper may sometimes bat leadoff.

Would he ever consider Bryce Harper hitting leadoff?

“Maybe,” Martinez said. “We’ll talk about it. Play with it, but before I do, I’ll definitely have a conversation with him.

Martinez actually asked Harper how he would like leading off before a Grapefruit League game on Saturday against the Mets; Harper smiled and said yes. He did so then because Martinez wanted him to get his two at-bats quickly before he left the game, but perhaps on some occasions during the regular season, the 2015 National League Most Valuable Player Award winner could also serve as the Nats’ table-setter.

The move doesn’t sound like it would be permanent over the season, just on a game-to-game basis. If he did lead off, his RBIs would plummet, but he may steal more. May. In this year’s first round with so many talented hitters, this may drop him down a few spots.

• Matt Carpenter is trying to lower his launch angle.

Fully committed to hitting the ball in the air more, Carpenter’s home runs spiked from eight in 2014 to 28 in ’15. He left the yard at almost an identical rate in ’16. He raised his average launch angle that year to an average of 17 degrees, aligned exactly with that of Nationals second baseman Daniel Murphy, one of the fly-ball revolution’s most successful acolytes.

But last year Carpenter raised his average angle four more degrees, putting his swing in the same neighborhood as all-or-nothing sluggers Mike Napoli and Joey Gallo. Carpenter’s launch angle even increased in two-strike counts, from 21.4 degrees to 21.9 degrees. Few hitters swung more from their shoes when the situation called to shorten up.
…
Carpenter hit more balls in the air, but his average exit velocity on fly balls fell more than 2 mph. The former gap-to-gap specialist morphed into a three-true-outcomes type. Carpenter’s batting eye and slugging percentage didn’t rate all that differently in 2013 than they did in ’17, but by the end of it, he’d sacrificed 77 points of batting average in four years, giving mid-career Carpenter the statistical look of a young Adam Dunn.

Carpenter is a perfect example of taking the fly-ball revolution too far. It would be great if he could lower his swing about five degrees. In 14 at-bats this spring, he’s posting a .20 GO/AO ration, which is a career low and equates to a 12% GB% and a 30.3-degree launch angle. Even though we’re not seeing the change yet, I like Carpenter as a sleeper with the improved launch angle, and he’s no longer dealing with a shoulder issue.

• Kolten Wong is batting eighth in spring training. There go his stolen-base chances.

Fastball Velocities: From pitch-tracking system installed at Salt Rivers (Rockies and D-Backs home park), teams with a broadcast radar (Mets, Nationals, and Yankees home games), and Twitter. Complete spreadsheet.