Sporer Report Issue #5 – Cervelli’s Power Surge

The first month of the season is in the books! It was an exciting month with some incredible breakouts like Didi Gregorius being baseball’s best player while Mike Trout and Aaron Judge picked up right where their 2017 seasons left off. However, you might’ve missed some of the good-but-unheralded performances that are still worthy of attention including a veteran catcher raking, an offseason bargain smacking the ball, and a former prospect on the rise.

Francisco Cervelli’s Power

Even at his best, Cervelli has been a contact-first singles hitter with some walks, but at age-32 he has joined the flyball revolution. The early results have been impressive. He hit four homers in April, leaving him one shy of his 2017 total and just four away from a new career-high. He has a 49% flyball rate, 19 points higher than his career average and it has paired with a 37% hard contact rate to generate a .263 ISO.

That mark is almost higher than his last three seasons of ISO added together (.285, with a high of .121 last year). He is fourth among catchers on ESPN’s Player Rater, yet on just 64% of rosters over there. Cervelli had a dominant spring ahead of his big April with a .405/.488/.838 line, four homers, six walks, and six strikeouts in 42 PA. A few names I’d definitely have Cervelli over in one-catcher leagues include Evan Gattis, Russell Martin, and Jonathan Lucroy.

Mike Moustakas Still Really Good

Moose was a free agent afterthought and then re-signed with the Royals on a mega-cheap deal, but hasn’t missed a beat from his 2017 breakout. He continues to be a great combination of power and contact with eight homers, a .299 AVG, and 12% strikeout rate in 123 PA. He’s even managed a solid 19 RBI despite being on the inept Royals offense (3.5 runs/game, 28th in the game).

Daniel Robertson’s Insane OBP

Robertson has been on base nearly 50% of the time this year thanks to a .333 AVG and 19% walk rate in 84 PA. The 24-year old is definitely riding that .404 BABIP for all it’s worth, fueled by a great 28% line drive rate. He will come down from this perch, but there’s definitely some talent here. Marc Topkin has this piece on Robertson about how he could be a Zobrist in the making and reworked his swing to get back on track. Robertson had some prospect hype a couple years ago, but faded after a mediocre 2016 and it stuck with him a bit:

“But from there it was like I started falling on all the prospect lists, dropping down. I was kind of like, ‘Dang, I’ve seen a lot of guys get injured and they don’t move down lists.’ I’m not going to name names, I was kind of just observing. From there I thought I was going to be a guy coming up, that I was going to be the next guy.”

He filled the 25th-man on the roster role well enough last year, logging regular time at 2B, SS, and 3B, but the bat wasn’t there at all. He remade himself a bit under the tutelage of several Rays and he detailed these changes with David Laurila in a great piece yesterday:

“I got knocked for what I did offensively last year. I feel that I impressed with what I did defensively, but for my whole career I’ve always been a hitter. I think I’m starting to show that again this year, thanks in part to things I worked on in the offseason. I’m putting myself in a better position to hit and that’s translating into me seeing the ball a lot better, as well as doing damage rather than having a defensive swing and just slapping it around.”

I think this is the kind of guy who will get dismissed by anyone just scouting his Fangraphs profile thanks to the gaudy BABIP, but there’s plenty of room for that to smooth out and allow Robertson to remain productive. The discipline isn’t new, either. The 18% rate is of course peak performance, but he’s always gotten his walks. He had a 10% rate in the minors and his 11% in the majors last year was the only positive in his stat line. Ideally, I can get Robertson into the lineup as an injury substitute so that gives me a “free” look at him, but even if that’s not possible this is worth a short-term look in leagues with a middle infielder position.