Spin-vestigation!

Before the gates coming crashing down upon my head, let’s make things crystal from jump street. I’m not a mathematician and I’m certainly not a statistician. I don’t even pretend to be one in my Twitter bio. Me? I’m just a fantasy hack with a penchant for Ockham.

Do you know who doesn’t have said penchant? Major League Baseball and Commissioner Rob Manfred. If they did, they wouldn’t have detailed how enforcement will work in regards to pitchers using grip enhancers in a memo with a Florida-sized sea of gray areas. If they were being honest about their intentions and goals, the solution would be simple (and obvious).

1. Come up with a standardized solution designed to help with grip but is difficult to weaponize in the name of advanced spinnery.
2. Clearly detail how, when, and how much the said substance can be used.
3. Harshly punish anyone using anything else.
4. Rinse, repeat.

However, why would baseball do that when they can instead villainize the players before likely contentious CBA negotiations? Why speak the truth when they can just act like this is the fault of rogue pitchers who have decided to cheat without any team executives knowing anything about anything? Because it’s the MLB, that’s why. Seemingly forever determined to come up with complicated solutions to simple problems, tromping through a field of rakes in oversized shoes.

Why would they use science to come up with a solution that’s accepted by both pitchers and hitters, when they can instead send out increasingly threatening memos before finally dropping the hammer. And by hammer, I mean making a system where Joe West and Angel Hernandez are the judge, jury, and executioner of a league-approved snitch cartel.

Regardless of where you fall on the spectrum of what is and isn’t cheating in regards to pitchers using non-rosin, grip enhancers, the can of worms is now open and will have repercussions. And whether players heeded earlier warnings, waited until June 2 when four minor leaguers were suspended 10 games for violations, or won’t quit until the “official” day of enforcement on June 21, those repercussions are coming.

What? You don’t think they’re going to try and make an example out of a big-name player? How else will Theo Epstein continue on his path to a commissionership if he doesn’t land some large, public fish?

As we get more and more data, loads of smart people with loads more mathery will come along to explain just how big of an overall effect the new enforcement of rules will have on pitching and offense. I’m not them and this isn’t that. I don’t have their names, I don’t have their titles, I don’t have their lands. But if you give me a moment we can speak about command.

And more importantly, we can talk about what red flags on your fantasy rotation might need to be scrutinized. Because all I really am is someone who read fa-aar too much Sherlock Holmes and tends to find all information important when trying to solve a puzzle, no matter the sample size or seemingly insignificance. Even if the only usefulness lies with using said examination to eliminate it from the things that do actually matter.

Someone alert Will Smith – no, not him…or him – because it’s time to get sticky wit it. Nah-nah-nah, nah, nah-nah, nah.

 

Spin Doctoring

We’ll be looking at changes in raw spin, as well as Bauer Units (BU), in starting pitchers since June 3. If unaware, Bauer units are calculated by dividing spin (in RPM) by velocity. While we’ll look at both, I find evaluating BU to be superior to just spin, as it takes out the effect of pitches gaining or losing spin sheerly because the velocity changed.

While we’ll be grouping by changes in spin and (BU), not all pitchers are the same in terms of their differences, or what they could mean. Some might have significant changes in spin rates across their pitch mix, some may only have dropped on one or two pitches. Some have relatively small changes in their spin rates but significant ones in BU, and vice-versa. This isn’t about finding a singular smoking gun in such a small sample, it’s about taking in the whole picture to try and suss out which pitchers will be most looking to ruin our fantasy dreams.

This general picture attack is why you’ll see pitchers with a low number of pitches thrown since June 3, with 10 pitches (per individual pitch type) set as the minimum. Can we make hard conclusions about Spencer Howard dropping 394 rpm from his slider (12 pitches, 10% usage), 332 rpm from his curveball (11 pitches, 10% usage), and 44 rpm from his changeup (10 pitches, 9% usage)? Not really. But when you also consider that his four-seamer (82 pitches, 71% usage) has dropped 218 rpm, those other large changes start adding more color to the rest of the picture. Context!

Next, a word on significance, both technically speaking and narratively. According to Eno Sarris’s research($), one standard deviation for a single pitcher changing within a year is 115 rpm (1.15 rpm/mph), which by definition, means that changes below those levels aren’t necessarily significant. But as mentioned, I’m no mathematician. I’m just looking for clues.

This is why I’ve included non-significant deviations on the charts below. I want to give a sense of a pitcher’s whole arsenal and we’re not just looking for the extreme spider tackers. If pitchers feel they have to go full zero on everything, eschewing even the previously (mostly) acceptable sunscreen rosin mixes, there is going to be a period of adjustment (and hopefully not injury). And seeing these adjustment periods coming – whether they last, or not – is information I believe to be significant for fantasy players.

So, generally speaking, the numbers that jump out to me are the drops of greater than 100 rpm and 1.0 BU. But individual changes not meeting one (or both) of those levels doesn’t necessarily disqualify them from scrutiny in my eyes. Do any of the individual changes from Alex Cobb and Andrew Heaney seem significant? No, not really. However, drops over most of their pitch mix become more significant to me when also considering that they both play for the Angels. Because don’t forget that we’re dealing with humans, not Excel columns, and most humans have a bit of common sense. If you play for a team that has earned a fair bit of infamy for their special clubhouse goop, are you really going to keep using it?

Team context is the other simple “metric” I find significant, as you’ll see that some teams (Los Angeles (both), Tampa Bay, Milwaukee, Houston, Spin-cinnati, etc.) are more represented than others. This doesn’t mean we’re (necessarily) looking at team-wide conspiracies to get as sticky as possible. It might also just mean that some teams have been more proactive in demanding that their players cut out everything, whether it’s the hard stuff or the substances that used to be considered more innocuous.

This is why I’m also listing pitches that aren’t necessarily going to be improved by artificially adding spin (like split-fingers and changeups). Do I think that Frankie Montas dropped 305 rpm and 3.4 BU on his split-finger because he stopped using Spider Tack? No, but such massive decreases can’t be ignored, even if he’s pitched well in his three starts since June 3. Maybe he’s just used to throwing with some sort of mild grip enhancer and is going to go through a period of adjustment after being forced to go completely dry. However, my dear Watsons, that possible adjustment period is what’s going to be on my mind when considering whether to start Montas in what looks to be a decent matchup against the Texas Rangers on Monday.

 

Trolls Hunting Coles

Before getting to the wider swath of pitchers, let’s take a look at our control subject, as we can virtually guarantee that Trevor Bauer has been rolling in that sticky-icky. You know, because he told everybody? Here’s how Bauer’s pitch mix has been spinning prior to, and following MLB’s warning shot on June 3.

Golly, I wonder what happened here? Well, we all know exactly what happened. Bauer told everyone what was going on and then he told us what could be done when a pitcher weaponizes these super grip enhancers to turn baseballs into whiffle balls. And then he did exactly that and his spin-rates went, “Wheeeeeeee!”,  all the way to a 1.73 ERA and an NL Cy Young in 2020.

I mean…

The story is the same when looking at changes in the unit named after him:

There is no guessing here because Bauer told us what was coming. You’re free to form your own opinions on his motivations but I don’t see him as some paragon of pitching virtue who simply wanted to clean up the system. Condemning a mob for their actions becomes duplicitous once you join the same mob and enjoy its benefits while ceasing to speak on the issues you originally had with them.

Pausing for some reckless speculation, I’m more prone to think that the green monster driving Barry Bonds to the juice bar after seeing Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa steal his attention, also helped drive Bauer to weaponize the sticky in the name of fairness, and help blow this whole thing up. Particularly after seeing his arch-nemesis (and former UCLA teammate), Gerrit Cole, turn his career around in Houston, which in Bauer’s eyes, was driven by his artificially-enhanced spin.

Speaking of Cole, how’s he been spinning on the ones and twos since the third of June?

Naughty, naughty, Mr. Cole. Is three starts worth of pitches a damning measure? No. However, given all the smoke around Cole, connecting these dots doesn’t make for much of a stretch.

But wasn’t Cole pretty good in his last two starts (after allowing 5 ER in 5 IP on June 3), posting a 2.57 ERA over 14 IP and fanning away all of that smoke and putting a wrench in your spinvestigation? Well, not exactly.

For one thing, Cole’s 2.57 ERA in those two starts was backed by a 5.23 FIP, as his four earned runs allowed came via four solo home runs, also giving up one versus Tampa Bay in his start on June 3. That’s five home runs in his last three starts, after allowing five home runs total in his previous 11 starts, allowing zero home runs in eight of those starts.

Of those five home runs, one was a 98 mph four-seamer away that Miguel Sano managed to take out the other way. That’ll happen. However, of the other four, three were dead-red meatballs in zone five (4-Seam, sinker, curve). And while the fourth was listed in zone seven, that’s giving too much credit for how much of the plate it caught.

Everyone occasionally hangs a curve or throws a heater down the pipe and even great pitchers can go through bad stretches. But everyone also remembers the pre-Houston version of Cole, right? The one that had a massive home run problem, allowing a 1.44 HR/9 and 1.25 HR/9 in his last two years at Pittsburgh before they went poof as an Astro, and now Yankee?

One more interesting thing about Cole’s last five games. In addition to the spin rate drops, he was faster. Across the board.

I know, just more small-sample smoke. But in addition to worrying about what the new crackdown will do to performance, there has been plenty of concern that it will lead to more over-gripping, over-throwing, and injuries to pitchers who try going cold turkey. Just ask Tyler Glasnow.

Since we’ve covered the nuance and the control, as well as New York’s new face of villainy, let’s now going hunting for coals of fire, instead of coles of Gerrit. Or at least a little smolder, in regards to this first table. These pitchers mostly don’t have any massive drops but have shown decreases on multiple pitches. These embers might speak of an overall change or they may get stamped out after a few more appearances, but regardless, onto the radar, they go.

Please remember, this isn’t all about finding cheaters (however it is you define them) or users of Spider Tack/Pelican Grip Dip/etc. You can make your own decisions of who you consider damned. Whether it’s one of those substances being used or something previously found acceptable, this is about trying to identify players who are being affected by the new crackdown. Baseball players are creatures of habits and large, wholesale changes to their process will force adjustments. The more prepared you are for their adjustments, the more adjustments you can make for your own purposes.

* Players are listed in alphabetical orders, with pitches sorted according to their changes in BU. Parenthetical values for the number of pitches and usage are only from post-June 2.

 

• We’ve opened up the Milwaukee division, with NotBurt favorites, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta, making the list. These get filed under interesting but not damning (or concerning). Woodruff (until last night in Colorado) has been spectacular all season and Peralta has a 1.96 ERA in his three starts since June 3. Although, there is a whole mess of Brewers floating around.
• In addition to the team and individual pitch trends, the amount of first- and second-year players making the charts also jumps out. Both of Adbert Alzolay’s main pitches (slider, four-seam) saw significant drops in their BU, with spin drops right under 100 rpm. Regardless of the substance, I’m generally more worried about young players adjusting if they’re forced to suddenly go dry. But at the same time, rookies often being inconsistent with their mechanics from start to start is going to happen. Add that to Alzolay going on the IL with a blister after his last start and you can color me not worried until we have more concerning evidence.
• Max Fried has only seen a significant change in one pitch but the fact that it’s his money ball is concerning. And looking at how it’s been thrown since 2018, the drops in 2021 (both before and after June 3) stick out even more.

 

Fire Rising

Let’s start pumping the bellows a bit and see what red flags are burning a little brighter. Maybe it’s just one pitch that has seen a dramatic change but from a key offering (Trevor Rogers), or someone who has an extreme drop on one pitch but smaller drops across the rest (Frankie Montas). Or perhaps the changes aren’t extreme (yet) but the drops are consistent across their mix (Jake Arrieta).

 

• RIP Tyler Glasnow’s Cy Young campaign. Putting fantasy performance aside, this is the situation I find most troubling. It’s like the MLB has been giving players increasingly bigger amounts of heroin, whether pushing them directly (if Zac Gallen is to be believed) or indirectly via non-punishment and the all-encompassing gray areas of acceptable rule-breaking. But now, the hammer of sobriety drops. I like to be optimistic but in a year that already has unprecedented injuries, this concerns me a great deal. But hey, quitting heroin cold turkey usually goes well, right?
• Call me crazy but if the effectiveness of 41-year-old Rich Hill’s curveball drops, I expect him to do so as well. His hook (n=48, 37% usage) has dropped 149 rpm since June 3, and Hill has allowed a total of eight earned runs in his last two starts. It’s still just smoke but as previously mentioned, these drops carry more weight for me when they come from a team burning like the Rays.
• I mentioned Trevor Rogers changeup (n=90, 33% usage) earlier but consider me not concerned. His four-seamer and slider have stayed virtually the same and I’m generally not worrying about changeup changes unless they come as part of an overall drop across a player’s mix.

 

Just Desserts

Alright, enough of the posers and the veggies of context. Let’s finish up with the pitchers whose changes in spin are screaming that something has changed, with multiple pitches seeing significant drops. It’s too soon to stamp a scarlet spider on these players but something – whether it’s the new absence of an industrial grip enhancer or something else – is up.

Like a guest wearing a white dress to a wedding, or me wearing my white short-shorts after Labor Day, it’s time to get a little tacky.

 

• Corbin Burnes, Tarik Skubal, James Kaprielian, AND my sweet Dylan? It’s almost like the above table was designed to hurt my feeling. Unfortunately, my feelings don’t have many recourses, as Bundy might as well be wearing a sign saying “I used the Angels goop”. Every one of his pitches has dropped significantly in both raw spin and BU; the smallest drops came in at -160 rpm and -1.4 BU. DM’s are open, Dylan if you want to talk.
• Two Detroit rookies make the list, with both Skubal and Casey Mize seeing significant drops on multiple pitches, both in terms of raw spin and BU. The good news with Skubal is that his bread-and-butter four-seamer (n=123, 42% usage) hardly budged but it’s hardly inspiring seeing his slider drop from 26.6 BU in 2020 to 25.1 BU prior to June 3, to now 23.0 BU since. Mize, on the other hand, has significant decreases on his curveball, splitter, and sinker but these are also his three more secondary pitches. His four-seamer (-0.6 BU, 62 rpm) and slider (+0.2 BU, -62 rpm) have also dropped but by small amounts. Also of note, though, is that much like Cole before, his velocity has dropped across his pitch mix, with the curve (-1.4 mph), split (-1.7 mph), sinker (-0.3), four-seam (-0.3 mph), and slider (-1.6 mph) all seeing at least a small downtick. But again, as rookies can be inconsistent with these things, this might just be smoke.
• If you didn’t avoid the last Happ-trap against Seattle (4 IP, 5 ER), perhaps his drop in spinnery will be enough for everyone to finally give up the ghost of J.A. Happ. Whether substance-related or not, the days of the Happ renaissance appear to be coming to an end.
• The recent drop in spin doesn’t seem to be bothering James Kaprielian, who has allowed a total of two earned runs over 11 IP in his last two starts, striking out 13. Seven walks aren’t great but considering one of those starts was in Colorado (5 IP, 2 ER, 6 K), let’s call it a wash.
• In respect of Marcus Stroman, national treasure, I’ll only mention what he’s done in his three starts since June 3. 20 innings, 23 strikeouts, and a 1.35 ERA.
• Shane Bieber may have seen significant drops on three pitches but is also currently on the IL with a shoulder strain. Since we don’t know how long he’s been dealing with this issue, or how it might be affecting his mechanics, it’s difficult to just point and say, “Ah-ha!”. However, it is troubling that the biggest drop came on his best pitch, with his curveball (n=62, 30% usage), losing 253 rpm and 2.9 BU.
• Getting back to wider changes, let me offer Tyler Anderson. It might not be a fire but he’s making a lot of smoke with drastic drops on four pitches, losing between 140 – 197 rpm and between 1.8 – 2.4 BU. Considering he has a 5.71 ERA in three starts since June 3, it might be wise to hold off on any sneaky streaming, for a minute or two.