Soriano The Setup Man

As they are wont to do, the Yankees recently identified a hole on their ballclub and shored it up by rebuilding the engine when a simple tune-up would have sufficed. Rafael Soriano as the beneficiary of their latest splurge, becoming the game’s fifth highest paid relief pitcher on an average annual value basis, and he won’t even get the responsibility of working the ninth inning. That will still belong to the unparalleled Mariano Rivera, and it takes a bite out of Soriano’s fantasy stock. It goes without saying that he’s a must have in leagues that count holds, but what if yours doesn’t?

As amazing as Rivera is, remember that he is 41 years old. Last season he was unavailable for a total of eleven games due to a nagging oblique issue, and in 2009 he battled a sore groin and a sore shoulder at different times. The offseason before that, he had surgery on his throwing shoulder. Rivera’s innings pitched total has declined every year since 2004, falling from 78.2 IP that season to just 60 IP in 2010. It’s been two full seasons since he eclipsed the 70 IP plateau, and even then it was only by two outs. Furthermore, the Yankees haven’t used him in back-to-back-to-back days since June of 2009. Seven saves went to non-Rivera pitchers in 2009, plus another six in 2010.

The Yanks have clearly been taking it easy on their aging yet still otherworldly closer, and Soriano’s presence will allow them to do that even more. Predicting save opportunities is a tricky business, but it wouldn’t be a huge surprised if the new setup guy finishes the season with around ten saves, just from subbing in for Rivera on occasion. Given the latter’s age and recent injury history, it could end up being quite a bit more.

The move to Yankee Stadium will probably hurt Soriano’s ERA and WHIP, though I think those concerns are generally overblown. Yes, he’s an extreme fly ball pitcher (31% grounders for his career) moving into a park that has inflated homer output by more than 34% since opening its doors (according to ESPN’s park factors), and his issues with lefty batters (career 4.00 FIP vs. LHB, 2.62 vs. RHB) will assuredly surface from time to time, but it shouldn’t happen with enough regularity to turn him into a 4.00 ERA reliever. I don’t think he’ll replicate the 1.73 ERA he had in 2010 just because that’s extremely tough to do, but sub-3.00 (something Soriano’s managed in each of his last four full seasons) is a very safe bet. As scary as Yankee Stadium can be, he’s just a reliever and will throw maybe 35 innings there next season.

Even with the great Rivera occupying the same bullpen, Soriano is the rare middle reliever worth carrying in a standard 5×5 league. He’ll give you a low WHIP, possibly sub-1.00, and should also supply a low ERA with a healthy dose of strikeouts. The team’s caution with the aging Rivera will always leave the door open for the occasional save opportunity as well.

Side note: Keep an eye on another Yankee reliever, David Robertson. Joe Girardi likes to use him in a fireman role but gave him some more traditional setup time in 2010. Soriano should push Robertson (and his career 11.31 K/9) back into those middle innings, where he could vulture some wins given the team’s current fourth and fifth starter situation.