Single-Season & StatCast Projections

Last season, I introduced two independent projections to help fantasy managers evaluate players. One is based on just the hitter’s previous season production and the other is based entirely on StatCast data. It’s time to have them available for 2021 draft prep.

As I previously stated, this is the reason behind the projections:

I created the projections with inspiration from “The Model Thinker” by Scott Page.* The author states, “do not put too much faith in one model”. To further explain this stance, he states:

“The lesson should be clear: if we can construct multiple diverse, accurate models, then we can make very accurate predictions and valuations and choose good actions.
…
Keep in mind, these second and third models need not be better than the first model. They could be worse. If they are a little less accurate, but categorically (in the literal sense) different, they should be added to the mix. “

Several projection systems already exist. Other projections take many projections and combine them. The issue is that projections are exclusively based on the previous season’s results (e.g. stolen bases, home runs) while incorporating some various levels of regression, aging factors, and yearly weightings. My goal is to create projections that don’t follow this standard cookie-cutter formula. I expect the projections to not be the most accurate because “all models are wrong.” I’m wanting a unique perspective on a hitter’s talent.

They are just a couple more tools to use going into 2021.

Single-Season Projections

While the background and parameters are available in the previous article, I just want to remind everyone these values are regressed… a lot. The regression influences batting average because each hitter only has around 250 PA… at best. Strikeout rate will drive batting average way more than BABIP (see: Tim Anderson). So, here are top-20 hitters ranked by just OPS and prorated to 600 PA (full list).

The top hitters don’t surprise me at all, but some of the small sample players start showing up like Jared Walsh and Anthony Santander. Both were lights out in the “sticky” stats (i.e. power and plate discipline). If I’m going to take a chance on a player based on 2020 results, it’ll be based on these projections.

StatCast Projections

The results of these projections are a little more controversial and are based on two or three-year weighted averages depending on the input (full explanation). One missing input is the effects of shifts. Many lumbering, pull-happy hitters (e.g. Kyle Schwarber) float to the top. Also, 2020 results won’t have much weight at all. So here is the top-20 (full list).

All stop. Even I want to know what is going on with Gary Sanchez’s projection. I know the previous seasons will have quite a bit of weight and I will dive in will an article later this week. The list is full of some hard-hitting dudes.

The knowledge for 2021 is starting to come together, but there is so much more to investigate. For the majority of drafters, we still have months to prepare.