Shortstop Has Gotten Really Young

We know the game is changing and getting much younger as a result. We just watched perhaps the best rookie class ever. One position that has been especially enriched by the youth movement is shortstop. For a few years it has been the worst fantasy position on the diamond and next-worst wasn’t particularly close. The gap has definitely shrunk and may have done so enough to where it’s not even the thinnest position in fantasy.

Obviously the headliners here are Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor, the two super-phenoms who embarrassed the league’s pitchers for 99 games apiece at the ages of 20 and 21, respectively. Many already see Correa as a first-round fantasy talent thanks in large part to his incredible power at such a premium position. Lindor won’t last too long, either. He went in the fourth round of a 15-team draft I did earlier this month, though he hasn’t yet gone deep into the seventh round of a 12-team mock that I have observed.

Adding two dynamic young talents like that has done wonders for the position, but they are hardly the only intriguing players just getting their careers of the ground. There is also Xander Bogaerts who simply had the top shortstop season at age-22 in 2015. I think there is a lot more coming from him. Using wRC+ with a 400 PA qualifier, Correa, Lindor, and Bogaerts were 1st, 2nd, and 4th at the position in 2015 and Jung-ho Kang, who is hardly old at 28 – especially when so many of the perceived top SS options coming into ’15 were late-20s, early-30s, slotted third.

The result was the youngest shortstop class we’ve seen in quite some time. I only went back 10 years and looked at the average age of the top 15 wRC+ finishers at shortstop (again, min. 400 PA) and 2015 stood out big time:

Just from 2014 to 2015 the average age dropped from 28.9 to 25.3! There is a wave of young shortstops who are ready to make their mark in 2016. Addison Russell, Corey Seager, and Trea Turner are all 23-and-under with huge potential.

Russell could really explode in 2016. He logged 523 PA last year and actually made that top 15 in wRC+, though he was just 13th with a 90. Defense will keep him on the field as the bat continues to mature. He already hit 13 homers, but that’s just the beginning. He only played about 42% of his games at shortstop, but his season was the fifth-best for a first-year shortstop (min. 500 PA) since 1947 by OPS+ (his was 90, just like his wRC+).

He was overshadowed by Kris Bryant and rightfully so. And even when Russell became the full-time shortstop and a more prominent piece (.780 OPS, .206 ISO as SS) of the lineup, he was not only dwarfed by Bryant but also by Kyle Schwarber. The studs around him won’t necessarily recede in 2016, but I think Russell joins them (Soler, too, but this is about shortstops!).

Seager only got 113 PA, but looked every bit like the stud we saw throughout his minor league career. I don’t want to Brett Lawrie him (remember the hype after 171 PA) and get too crazy after such a small sample, but Seager is a much better player than Lawrie so while he won’t have a full season of the 175 wRC+ we saw down the stretch, he is likely to be over 100. I think the downside is Russell’s season which wouldn’t be great, especially since Seager’s price could have that Bryant effect if he has a nice spring, but by no means would it kill you. Even if you overpaid for it.

There’s also a lower level of 25-and-under shortstops who could still improve from what we’ve seen thus far: Ketel Marte (22), Eugenio Suarez, Wilmer Flores (24), and Marcus Semien (25). Plus, we have a handful of veterans at age-26 who have all shown reasons to believe: Starlin Castro, Brad Miller, Andrelton Simmons, Jose Iglesias, Didi Gregorius, and Jean Segura.
There are some viable options on the other side of 30 – Troy Tulowitzki, Jhonny Peralta, and Ian Desmond – but with so much upside at the position, I’m not sure I want to pay the price for any of those three and take on the risk that comes with their age. Either invest early in the premium upside or wait it out and speculate on some youth with more upside than the Erick Aybars and Alexei Ramirezes of the world.

And all of this doesn’t even get into the prospects who’ve yet to reach the majors. J.P. Crawford (PHI), Orlando Arcia (MIL), and Ozhaino Albies (ATL) are on the cusp while the top three picks in the 2015 draft all play the position as well: Dansby Swanson (ARI), Alex Bregman (HOU), and Brendan Rodgers (COL).