Shortstop ADP Market Report: 1/31/22
With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can find all the pieces in this series here.
Top 100 Players Rising
None
Top 100 Players Falling
Marcus Semien (-9.82)- Check out the piece in this series on second basemen.
Corey Seager (-12.17)- Seager is dropping after signing a deal with the Rangers which places him in a much worse park and lineup than before when he was in Los Angeles. My bigger issues with Seager are about his health and lack of speed. The last time he hit 600 plate appearances in a season it was 2017 and with the depth at the shortstop position, it is hard to want to invest in a player that has stolen three bases in the last four seasons.
Top 200 Players Rising
Willy Adames (+10.92)- After being traded from Tampa to Milwaukee, Adames was fantastic. He hit .285/.366/.521 with 20 home runs and four stolen bases in 413 plate appearances. He also sported a 10% barrel rate with a 112.5 max exit velocity. Adames has always had talent in the bat and getting out of Tampa was exactly what he needed.
Chris Taylor (+14.41)- Check out the piece in this series on second basemen.
Gleyber Torres (+12.97)- I think Torres is rising after bouncing back in the second half in 2021. He hit .289 with six home runs and stole eight bases down the stretch for the Yankees. This is an encouraging sign after he was unusable in fantasy in 2020 and the early part of 2021. As encouraging a sign as this is, I don’t think we will ever see the type of power that we saw in 2019, but he could be a 15/15 guy with a good average.
Amed Rosario (+15.88)- Rosario started off the season a little slow in 2022, but after May 23rd, he was moved to the second spot in the Guardians lineup and hit .299 with nine home runs and stole 10 bases. Rosario played so well that the Guardians felt comfortable enough to demote Andres Gimienez. He enters 2022 with a locked down role at shortstop and hitting second in Cleveland.
Luis Urias (+18.92)- Urias is rising as people are getting excited about his growth in 2021 and the multi-positional eligibility. Urias has always been a contact and on base guy, but projected to have very little power or speed. However, he gave up some of that contact and patience for a more aggressive approach and it resulted in 23 home runs. While I don’t see any more power growth, I love this profile and I think there is some bounceback potential in the batting average, making him a great target where he is going.
Top 200 Players Falling
None
Top 300 Players Rising
O’Neil Cruz (+51.17)- The hype train is full speed ahead for Cruz and I am the conductor right now! Cruz is a massive talent, figuratively and literally. There is a ton of power in the bat and he is deceptively fast. Projections love him as well with the only concern being whether the Pirates hold him down to manipulate service time. Either way, he should get 130-140 games in which he can hit 20+ home runs and steal 15+ bases and potentially much more.
Andres Gimenez (+34.41)- Check out the piece in this series on second basemen.
Top 300 Players Falling
Gavin Lux (-16.27)- Check out the piece in this series on second basemen.
Nicky Lopez (-54.4)- I understand people aren’t buying into Lopez, but man, the hate is going way too far (shoutout to the #06010). Speed is at a premium and Lopez offers that later than most other stolen base assets. He should play regularly and there are reasons to buy the average he put up last year with a 92.8% zone contact percentage. Will there be some regression? Sure, but even if he hits .260, it is coming with 20+ stolen bases.
Others of Note
Isiah Kiner-Falefa (-89.22)- IKF is dropping after the signings of Semien and Seager. With them in town and the impending call up of Josh Jung, Falefa will likely be heading to a super utility role. That being said, there are paths to playing time for him. The Rangers outfield is pretty bare and he had been a catcher before moving into the infield, so he could end up back there. I think he has value in deep leagues, especially once he starts picking up eligibility in other places.
Jeremy Pena (+140.57)- Pena is rising as he appears to be the next man up at shortstop for the Astros. Pena has an interesting profile, but I would guess Correa ends up back in Houston or they bring in a different veteran.
Bryson Stott (+75.09)- Stott is rising as he looks to be the next shortstop for the Phillies with Gregorius past his prime. Stott has shown decent contact skills and a great eye at the plate. He doesn’t have much more than average speed or power, but if he gets playing time he could be an interesting accumulator in a nice park and lineup and if the Phillies don’t sign anyone else.
| 12/18/21-1/30/22 | Player | Team | Position(s) | 10/1/21-11/14/21 | 11/15/21-12/17/21 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.25 | Trea Turner | LAD | 2B, SS | 1.94 | 1.78 | 0.53 |
| 2.46 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | SS, OF | 1.67 | 2.04 | -0.42 |
| 5.23 | Bo Bichette | TOR | SS | 5.22 | 5.07 | -0.16 |
| 36.42 | Tim Anderson | CWS | SS | 38 | 38.89 | 2.47 |
| 36.96 | Trevor Story | COL | SS | 43.17 | 41.44 | 4.48 |
| 40.15 | Marcus Semien | TEX | 2B, SS | 27.78 | 30.33 | -9.82 |
| 47 | Xander Bogaerts | BOS | SS | 39.83 | 42.56 | -4.44 |
| 49.63 | Francisco Lindor | NYM | SS | 51.78 | 50.11 | 0.48 |
| 56 | Wander Franco | TB | SS | 48.5 | 48.33 | -7.67 |
| 64.46 | Javier Baez | DET | 2B, SS | 67.06 | 66.63 | 2.17 |
| 72.52 | Jazz Chisholm Jr. | MIA | 2B, SS | 76.17 | 72.96 | 0.44 |
| 85.06 | Corey Seager | TEX | SS | 62.72 | 72.89 | -12.17 |
| 85.44 | Jorge Polanco | MIN | 2B, SS | 89.22 | 90.96 | 5.52 |
| 90.79 | Bobby Witt Jr. | KC | SS | 90.61 | 89.07 | -1.72 |
| 107.6 | Carlos Correa | HOU | SS | 91.67 | 97.78 | -9.82 |
| 125.08 | Jake Cronenworth | SD | 1B, 2B, SS | 122.83 | 124.59 | -0.49 |
| 127.9 | Dansby Swanson | ATL | SS | 126.78 | 125.26 | -2.64 |
| 132.23 | Willy Adames | MLW | SS | 139.56 | 143.15 | 10.92 |
| 142.96 | Chris Taylor | LAD | 2B, SS, OF | 161 | 157.37 | 14.41 |
| 146.44 | Gleyber Torres | NYY | SS | 160.78 | 159.41 | 12.97 |
| 151.23 | Amed Rosario | CLE | SS | 174.28 | 167.11 | 15.88 |
| 157.6 | Luis Urias | MLW | 2B, 3B, SS | 180.39 | 176.52 | 18.92 |
| 171.44 | Brendan Rodgers | COL | 2B, SS | 155.83 | 163.81 | -7.63 |
| 210.31 | Oneil Cruz | PIT | SS | 265.17 | 261.48 | 51.17 |
| 212.23 | Brandon Crawford | SF | SS | 207.17 | 212.41 | 0.18 |
| 219.6 | Eugenio Suarez | CIN | 3B, SS | 204.44 | 209.07 | -10.53 |
| 223.6 | Gavin Lux | LAD | 2B, SS | 207.89 | 207.33 | -16.27 |
| 228.4 | Josh Rojas | ARZ | 2B, SS, OF | 248.67 | 238.59 | 10.19 |
| 231.81 | Andres Gimenez | CLE | 2B, SS | 282.67 | 266.22 | 34.41 |
| 236.25 | Nicky Lopez | KC | SS | 192.83 | 181.85 | -54.4 |
| 265.75 | Jonathan Villar | NYM | 3B, SS | 280.83 | 267.3 | 1.55 |
| 275.25 | Gio Urshela | NYY | 3B, SS | 271.22 | 278.15 | 2.9 |
| 308.46 | J.P. Crawford | SEA | SS | 310.67 | 308.93 | 0.47 |
| 320.5 | Miguel Rojas | MIA | SS | 355.56 | 343.11 | 22.61 |
| 324.44 | David Fletcher | LAA | 2B, SS | 318.33 | 326.04 | 1.6 |
| 342.96 | Isiah Kiner-Falefa | TEX | SS | 250.33 | 253.74 | -89.22 |
| 345.38 | Joey Wendle | MIA | 3B, SS | 353.56 | 343.67 | -1.71 |
| 356.73 | Ha-Seong Kim | SD | 2B, 3B, SS | 398.06 | 384.04 | 27.31 |
| 372.71 | Jose Barrero | CIN | SS | 398.06 | 408.48 | 35.77 |
| 395.6 | Edmundo Sosa | STL | 2B, SS | 360.33 | 380.74 | -14.86 |
| 408.98 | Bryson Stott | PHI | SS | 502.06 | 484.07 | 75.09 |
| 417.88 | Ramon Urias | BAL | 2B, SS | 467.17 | 425.48 | 7.6 |
| 426.79 | Paul DeJong | STL | SS | 432.61 | 438.56 | 11.77 |
| 429.98 | Tyler Wade | LAA | 3B, SS, OF | 581.56 | 509.48 | 79.5 |
| 432.46 | Didi Gregorius | PHI | SS | 401.44 | 416.04 | -16.42 |
| 460.65 | Jeremy Pena | HOU | SS | 639.56 | 601.22 | 140.57 |
| 470.83 | Kyle Farmer | CIN | SS | 502.89 | 520.48 | 49.65 |
| 501.13 | Willi Castro | DET | 2B, SS | 460.44 | 492.15 | -8.98 |
| 505.19 | Nick Ahmed | ARZ | SS | 536.17 | 517.33 | 12.14 |
| 508.92 | Elvis Andrus | OAK | SS | 573.33 | 570.74 | 61.82 |
| 548.44 | Niko Goodrum | DET | SS | 466.22 | 482.44 | -66 |
| 564.15 | Jose Iglesias | BOS | SS | 570.78 | 550.85 | -13.3 |
| 571.19 | Cole Tucker | PIT | SS | 668.67 | 626.89 | 55.7 |
| 572.29 | Alcides Escobar | WAS | SS | 639.56 | 581.11 | 8.82 |
| 577.04 | Taylor Walls | TB | SS | 707.39 | 653.41 | 76.37 |
| 596.96 | Kevin Newman | PIT | SS | 658.44 | 620.78 | 23.82 |
| 626.4 | Mauricio Dubon | SF | 2B, SS, OF | 576 | 586.63 | -39.77 |
| 631.06 | Andrelton Simmons | MIN | SS | 681.06 | 626.59 | -4.47 |
| 633.1 | CJ Abrams | SD | SS | 611.94 | 617.74 | -15.36 |
| 648.29 | Geraldo Perdomo | ARZ | SS | 642.78 | 640.37 | -7.92 |
| 689.6 | Thairo Estrada | SF | SS | 716.72 | 699.67 | 10.07 |
| 702.79 | Jeter Downs | BOS | SS | 658.33 | 661.52 | -41.27 |
| 709.67 | Royce Lewis | MIN | SS | 597.89 | 626.04 | -83.63 |
| 727.92 | Jordan Groshans | TOR | SS | 717.11 | 715.56 | -12.36 |
| 727.94 | Luis Rengifo | LAA | SS | NA | 740.96 | 13.02 |
| 730.65 | Harold Castro | DET | 2B, SS | 698.11 | 696.52 | -34.13 |
| 734.1 | Oswald Peraza | NYY | SS | 709.17 | 715.26 | -18.84 |
| 741.54 | Sergio Alcantara | CHC | 2B, SS | 729 | 720.04 | -21.5 |
| 745.27 | Anthony Volpe | FA | SS | 733.72 | 731.93 | -13.34 |
| 745.69 | Gabriel Arias | CLE | SS | NA | 732.81 | -12.88 |
| 747.29 | Ryan Kreidler | FA | SS | 748.56 | 748.26 | 0.97 |
| 747.56 | Freddy Galvis | PHI | SS | 566 | 603.07 | -144.49 |
| 749.46 | Andrew Velazquez | LAA | SS | NA | 741.04 | -8.42 |
| 749.88 | Ronald Torreyes | PHI | 3B, SS | 727.33 | 739.7 | -10.18 |
| 750.4 | Danny Mendick | CWS | 2B, SS | NA | NA | NA |
| 750.56 | Nick Maton | PHI | 2B, SS | NA | 739.04 | -11.52 |
| 750.6 | Dee Strange-Gordon | MLW | SS | NA | 747.63 | -2.97 |
| 750.81 | Jonathan Arauz | BOS | SS | NA | NA | NA |
| NA | Richie Martin | BAL | SS | 748.5 | 747.93 | NA |
| NA | Zack Short | DET | SS | NA | 747.74 | NA |
Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.
According to ESPN, Globe Life and Dodger Stadium were almost identical last year, both just slightly worse than average for runs scored.
Things were different in 2020, but that was the first year for the new Rangers park, and it was a very small sample.
I’m not certain that the Rangers park is as good as the Dodgers park, but I don’t see much evidence yet to prove it’s worse.
I heard someone say that the park factors on lefty home runs are fairly normal, it’s the righties that get the stick end.