Setting a Fantasy Value on Jose Reyes

Looking over some recent real and mock fantasy drafts, one name which is coming up as a potential sleeper is Jose Reyes. His fantasy value is unknown with his projected value being quite a bit different than the position he is being taken in fantasy drafts. Dan Swartz had him ranked 34th using Steamer projections while he was actually going 151st in NFBC drafts. The reason for the huge difference comes down to his pending criminal charges for domestic abuse. While the legal, ramifications may take a while to go to court, MLB has enacted a new domestic violence policy which has yet to be tested. I can see why people are reluctant to draft Reyes. Well, here is an attempt to put a reasonable fantasy value on him for 2016.

Estimating games missed

To get the expected games suspended, I went with two methods to find the answer, asking the crowd and asking the expert. Both sources generally agree with the time missed.

For the crowd, I asked my Twitter followers how much time they expected Reyes to be suspended. Most people put the value between 25 and 50 games with an average value near 35 games.

Then I moved on to FanGraphs legal expert Nathaniel Grow. When I asked him how he expected the situation to play out, here is his response.

While Reyes’ status remains uncertain, a suspension somewhere in the 25-50 game range would probably be a reasonable, conservative estimate of the punishment he is likely to face from the league.

So somewhere between 25 and 50 games, which is around where the crowd put the number. I will take the view of a conservative owner and go with a 50 game suspension to figure out his value. If an owner wants to take a chance, they could assume fewer days missed.

Setting replacement value

Note: I created a similar procedure for pitchers a couple weeks ago to help value Yu Darvish. The following is the exact procedure except, with the hitting sheet and stats.

As I step through the process, it will be best to have this spreadsheet open. All of the cells shaded yellow will need to have information filled in. Here are the steps.

1. Total plate appearances: This cell estimates the plate appearances both the hitters, injured and replacement, will hit over the course of the season. For pre-season estimates, I will use 600 PA. An owner will need to adjust these values for an injury or time loss occurring during the season. If two months into the season a hitter is going to miss the next two months, the total plate appearances would need to be around 200.

2. Name

3. % of plate appearances: This is the amount of the total innings you expect the hurt pitcher to pitch. With Reyes, I expect him to miss 50 games. This means he will play in 69% of the games.

4. Hitter Projection: I have the spreadsheet set up so that a person can go to the pitcher’s Standard projection and copy-and-paste the projection (link to Reyes’s data). If you don’t like a FanGraphs projection, feel free to make your own. Also, note that the plate appearances are not adjusted. The spreadsheet automatically adjusts the values based on the initial total plate appearances.

5. Finding the replacement level pitchers. These are the hitters who should be easily found on a league’s waiver wire or extras on a team’s bench. During the season, they are easy to determine because all the players are drafted. Before the season, the best way to find these replacement players is to find a draft ranking. For ease of calculations, I am going to use Dan’s rankings mentioned above as my draft ranking and assume a 12 team, 13 pitcher league for a total of 156 hitters starting. Three middle infield hitters near the replacement-level ranking are Erick Aybar, Joe Panik and Starlin Castro. An owner can use a larger sample of hitters, but I find three samples are generally enough. Finally, add the projections for the replacement level hitters just like it was done for Reyes to the spreadsheet. Again, don’t adjust the plate appearances.

6. Composite Player. This is the projection to value Reyes in a 12-team, 9 pitcher league. Looking at the normal five categories stats, I found one similar hitter, Jason Kipnis. The problem finding comps is Reyes’s projected high batting average and steals.

According to Dan’s draft value data (link above), Kipnis is being taken around the 80th overall pick which is about 70 picks before Reyes is being taken. Right now, it looks like Reyes is a value. Owners don’t even need to jump and take him around 80th. The could wait a few rounds and probably pick him up around the 120th pick if they desire.

Reyes is not the only know hitter who will miss some time to start the season. Michael Brantley and Jung-ho Kangk will miss time at the season’s start. Other hitters will acquire spring training injuries and their overall value can be calculated before the draft using the above method. By using the above method I used to determine Reyes’s value, the values for other hitters can easily be calculated.