Sergio Santos is Underrated

As someone who drafted and trusted Matt Thornton last year with one of my closer spots, I made sure to pick up his handcuff after that awful first week for the White Sox’s left-handed reliever. I was extremely happy with what Santos provided the rest of the way through, specifically during the first part of his closer tenure in Chicago. Over his first 20 innings, he recorded six saves and allowed no runs.

Looking at the above graph, and focusing solely on the 2011 portion, you can see that there were basically two rough spots for Santos last season. His ERA spiked from mid-May to mid-June and throughout September. Other than that he was rather impressive. Of course, you cannot simply just overlook two months of poor performance, but you can see the potential in Santos’s skills when looking at his strong stretches of play.

His peripherals are the most promising part of his game. Netting a 2.87 FIP, 2.69 xFIP, and most impressively a 2.26 SIERA – ranked inside the top 10 for relievers – is certainly the biggest reason to like him entering this year. His actual 3.55 ERA did not correlate with those ERA estimators, but I do not see any glaring sign that this should become a trend.

While his walk rate is high, his strikeout and walk rates are not entirely dissimilar to Craig Kimbrel’s or Kenley Jansen’s. He strikes out slightly less batters, but he looks like a poor man’s version of what may be the two best relievers in the game at this point. With a minimum of 50 innings pitched, Santos had the fourth highest strikeout percentage of 35.4%, behind only the two aforementioned relievers and David Robertson.

Moving to Toronto, a team that should be rather competitive this year, and with the job right out of the gate, Santos should see more save opportunities this season. Moving to the AL East also means tougher competition, but he was already playing in a hitter’s ballpark and has the stuff to compete against any lineup.

Carlos Marmol and Joakim Soria are being drafted before Santos according to Mock Draft Central, but Santos looks like the better pitcher on paper. Both Marmol and Soria have seen their strikeout-to-walk rates decline, while Santos is only improving as he gets accustomed to the mound – he was a shortstop until 2009.

There are better closers and set up men in baseball than Santos, but not many have the type of upside that Santos can have for your fantasy team this year. There is a reasonable opportunity for him to produce Kimbrel-esque numbers for a fantasy bullpen while being drafted much later than the top tier relievers. While he has only 115 Major League innings and just over two seasons as a professional pitcher, any reliever who can amass a career FIP under 3.00 over two full seasons is a reliever worth targeting. The potential for a save total near 40, an ERA in the upper twos, and close to triple digit strikeout numbers make Santos a reliever I have targeted in every draft. You should do the same.