Sergio Romo Out — Who’s In?
Sergio Romo is out. The committee is in. And so we get our divining rods out and try to figure out who will leave the heap on top.
I’ve talked about Jack Moore’s great piece on the relevance of strikeout rate and velocity on possible closer changes before, so it seems relevant to mention now that only Koji Uehara has a slower fastball than Romo among relievers with more than two saves. But it’s working for Uehara, based on awesome command (3.2% career BB%) and a great splitter. Seems like Romo’s awesome command (5.2% career BB%) and great slider should be enough, particularly since he added a change-up this year.
But Romo, he hit a bad stretch, and now velocity and strikeout rate are relevant. Let’s just make a handy chart then.
| Name | FBv | K% | BB% | SV | HLD | IP | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Casilla | 94.3 | 18.6% | 8.0% | 1 | 10 | 31.1 | 1.15 |
| Juan Gutierrez | 93.8 | 19.7% | 4.2% | 10 | 36.1 | 3.22 | |
| Jean Machi | 92.8 | 20.5% | 5.7% | 2 | 11 | 33 | 1.36 |
| Jeremy Affeldt | 91.6 | 20.9% | 6.4% | 12 | 27.1 | 1.98 | |
| George Kontos | 91.5 | 28.6% | 8.9% | 14.2 | 3.07 | ||
| David Huff | 91.1 | 12.0% | 6.5% | 1 | 20 | 6.3 | |
| Yusmeiro Petit | 89.1 | 25.0% | 8.1% | 30.2 | 2.64 | ||
| Sergio Romo | 87.9 | 20.5% | 5.5% | 22 | 31.1 | 5.17 | |
| Javier Lopez | 85.7 | 9.7% | 12.5% | 6 | 16.1 | 3.31 |
Santiago Casilla jumps off the page when it comes to velocity, even if he cedes some strikeout ability to other pitchers on the list. By this analysis, his biggest competition comes from Juan Gutierrez and Jean Machi. Let’s call it close enough to try and parse the difference — all three are obvious being used in close and late situations, given their holds numbers.
Of course, we’ll have to go off the reservation a little to do this. There’s very little correlated with closer change in a meaningful way when you ask the numbers. So let’s freelance for a second.
Juan Gutierrez has been a find this year, using improved command — or a nice home park — to avoid homers at a career-best rate. The culprit in the past has been his change-up. He has the highest homer rate on his change-up among any of his pitches. Despite it having a great whiff rate (22%), it’s risky pitch. He doesn’t throw it a lot, though. More important is perhaps the fact that BrooksBaseball has him throwing a worse slider more often than his better curve ball. But he can command the curve. In any case, Gutierrez is being used in losses — five straight in fact. Usage suggests he’s not a contender.
Jean Machi has 93 mph velocity, a better strikeout rate, and was used in a win more recently. If his last two bad outings can be ignored, he might be a better option than Casilla. He was once a closer in Mexico! (Yes, that’s irrelevant.) Machi is very Uehara-ian in that he throws the splitter almost as much (if not more) than his fastballs, and it’s working because so far he’s shown excellent control. The only thing that’s weird about Machi’s line is that his major league walk rates have all been far superior to his minor league ones. Only once did he have a walk rate under 6% in the minors, and his major league walk rate is 5.5%.
Casilla has the best velocity of the three, but the worst strikeout rate. It’s the worst strikeout rate of his career, and really only his fastballs and curve are any good by whiff rates, so it’s not surprising. His sinker gets 73% grounders, though, so he’s a fairly safe pitcher. It’s strange that his fastball usage is down recently, but we haven’t heard that his recent hamstring injury is acting up or anything. Casilla has also been used in wins and gotten more holds than the other three recently.
Jeremy Affeldt is reportedly part of the picture, and has been used in close and tight games. He’s also no LOOGY — Lefty One Out GuY — not with a 3.87 vs 4.03 L/R FIP platoon split and a curve/splitter platoon-busting arsenal. But a recent breakdown doesn’t bode well, and managers don’t prefer lefty closers. His velocity is the worst of the contenders, and his strikeout rate does not seem to do enough to make the case by itself.
Given that the Giants are in contention, it seems doubtful they’ll hand the role to a newbie, even if closer experience hasn’t been shown to be predictive in the past. So even if Jean Machi could close for the Giants in the long-term future, the near-term future seems to be all Santiago Casilla’s.
At least until Sergio Romo gets it back. After all, Casilla was once the closer before Sergio Romo, so they’ve proven the hierarchy once before. And look through Romo’s peripherals, and it’s virtually impossible to find anything that’s out of whack with his career numbers. Sure, he’s throwing the change more, but none of the homers that are mucking up his overall line have come off the pitch. Expect a little homer regression and Romo to get his role back from Casilla in the future.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
I’ve got to believe that a trade for Steve Cishek or some other established closer(are there any of those left?)is coming down the pike.
Huston Street? Addison Reed?
is romo a trade candidate? I know everyone is an upgrade for Anaheim and Detroit at times, but he seems like he could return a decent prospect or two rather than leave for nothing at the end of the year.
I think trading for an established closer is like #6 or 7 on a list of improvements they would go after. They have glaring holes in CF, 2B, and their rotation and you think they will move anything of value to get a closer when they have shown in the past a willingness in using Casilla + Affeldt + others to close out games?
Besides, if Romo is in fact 100% healthy then its only a matter of time before he gets straightened out enough for Bochy to put back in for the 9th.
If you know anything about Sabean’s trade deadline habits, you know the bullpen will be his #1 priority, although he will probably go for someone nobody has thought of. Remember Lopez and Ramirez from 2010?
“And look through Romo’s peripherals, and it’s virtually impossible to find anything that’s out of whack with his career numbers.”
Huh? Romo has the worst K% (20.5%) of his career, and his highest BB % since 2010. His previous worst K rate was 23.2% (last year), which was already down from 28-29% in 2010-12 (excepting the 40% outlier in 2011). I’d say that’s a little alarming? It may come from pitch usage (throwing the slider less), but isn’t there a fair likelihood that reduced slider usage is a permanent change that comes from either (a) a conscious choice to trade strikesouts for long term health or (b) an arm injury? Prior to last season’s K% drop, the last time he threw his slider this infrequently was 2009-10, he was throwing a fastball that has since declined 1-2 mph in velocity.
His strikeout rate isn’t stabilized yet, his swinging strike rate is as high as it’s ever been, and he’s throwing the slider more than last year, and it’s hard to throw the slider as much when you’re throwing a change-up in order to try and have a weapon against lefties. Honestly not worried about Romo except that injury is always a concern with him.
Any chance he might be playing through an injury now?
If you are on Instagram, check out Romo’s posts from early in the season when he was still having better results. I think they provide clues to a frame of mind that may have something to do with this.
How do you think their contract status will play into this if at all? Romo is a FA after this year but Casilla under contract for up to 2 more years…
Giants are looking to win this year and don’t appear to be too worried about their finances, so they’ll probably just go with the best option. That being said, Romo and Casilla are both cost-certain, while Machi could start getting expensive if they install him as full-time closer (he’s still pre-arb). However, if Romo is fine, they’ll probably put him back in the ninth soon, and it won’t make a significant difference.
however brian wilson also won them a title as ‘the closer’ and was shown the door promptly upon free agency. romo was around for that drama.
Huh? Wilson won a title as closer in 2010, and was not “shown the door” until after the 2012 season after undergoing his second TJ surgery at the beginning of that season.
So how is his slider grading compared to previous years? I bet you’ll find that it’s grading much worse this year. And Romo without a top line slider is…well…what he is right now.
around 18%, which is above average but not the 21% he had last year. I don’t really see a worry from pitch-type stuff other than his bad fastball, which has always been bad.
If you watch the games, he is throwing way more hanging sliders and they are getting hammered.
I watch the goddam games, especially SF games since my entire family is made up of Giants fans. We can disagree on something without breaking out that old tired piece of non-argument every time.
…well at least you didn’t overreact.
Sorry. Just feels like a decade of comments from DrB, they got old about three years ago.
Watch the games, listen to Krukow’s commentary, read the beatwriter’s blogs, track what pitches the hard hit balls are coming off of. I’m telling’ ya, he’s hanging his sliders and they are getting hammered. It’s as simple as that.
Ah, if it was short-hand for ‘be a better Giants fan,’ I’m afraid I can’t compete. I have to pay attention to all the teams, not just one. So my conversations with Pavlovic and Romo don’t count for enough, I guess. He’s hanging sliders! Five homers this year on the slider. Problem is, that doesn’t tell us anything about the future. Since Pavlovic and Romo don’t actually seem that worried when I talk to them, and he has a loooong track record of throwing that slider well, I’m going to bet with the meat of his history.
Ya Im sure Eno doenst watch the Giants at all.
Cmon Dr B, I dont even know Eno but just form reading his chats and articles here its readily obvious that he watches a ton of Giants game, many of them in person. Would not be the least bit surprised if he watched more innings of Giants baseball than any other team.
Im sure someone who frequents Fangraphs as often as yourself has caught on to this? Dont you notice that most of his interviews are done when the players team is in SF for a series?
It’s not just watching the games. It’s watching them with Krukow dissecting every pitch. It’s reading Extra Giants by Alex Pavlovic afterwards. Track the hard hit balls pitch-by-pitch. I guarantee he’s hanging his sliders and they are getting hammered! He also has a terrible L-R split and opposing managers have figured that out.
That L-R split is old news and the change-up is the best it’s ever been, from eyes and stats. I don’t think that’s what’s going on here.
Do you guys like Santiago Casilla or Jason Grilli rest of the season in a 12 team mixed roto? Thanks!
I would go Grilli. I think the Angels are dead set against the idea of using Smith as the full time closer and unless they make another trade I think Grilli will have a decent enough rope on the job.
I think within a week or two Romo gets the job back and maybe they use Casilla more in terms of not using Romo more than two days in a row or something, but if I need saves I would rather have Grilli just because I think his path to getting and keeping the job is so much easier.
I see. Guess someone else will pick him up on waivers then…