Select Late-Season Arms (Ashby, Gomez, Richardson, Rom, & Rosenberg)
Note: For the next few weeks, I’m going to focus on some pitchers who I thought were interesting but haven’t had time to dive in. Most were late-season debuts while others had an arsenal change. Others came of the IL as the season was coming to a close. I’m just going to work through them in alphabetical order and once done, I move to my normal late-round starters.
Our 51st-ranked prospect, Aaron Ashby is recovering from shoulder surgery.
Aaron Ashby is another Brewers youngster recovering from shoulder surgery, but it doesn’t appear as though Ashby’s comeback attempt will lead to a return during the regular season or postseason. The left-hander hasn’t pitched at all in 2023 due to arthroscopic surgery in April, though he has pitched in seven rehab outings in September, advancing from high-A ball to Double-A to Triple-A. While rehab assignments are more about getting healthy than bottom-line results, the 15.43 ERA Ashby has posted over his seven total minor league innings indicates that he isn’t quite right yet, so it seems highly unlikely that the Brewers would turn to him as an option for a postseason roster.
While little info can be gleaned from his rehab starts, he threw 61 pitches in AAA so there are at least velocity readings from his pitches.
Pitch: 2022 Velo, 2023 Velo
- Four-seam: 95.6, 91.5
- Sinker: 95.8, 92.1
- Change: 89.3, 87.0
- Slider: 83.7, 78.7
- Curve: 79.8, 76.7
Across the board, his velocities were down two to four ticks. Additionally, he walked 14 batters in seven innings. I can’t see a way to consider him until he re-establishes himself in Spring Training.
The 23-year-old Yankee made 19 AA starts with some decent results (3.58 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and 10.7 K/9). He got promoted to the majors and threw two shutout innings. In the majors, he threw a 95-mph fastball and four other pitches (curve, change, cutter, slider).
When evaluating small samples (31 pitches) like these, fantasy managers need to lean into the STUFFF metrics. In the two innings, Pitching Bot gave him an overall grade of 59 (56 Stuff). Stuff+ gave him a 114 Pitching+ (94 Stuff+). The two metrics grade him out as a Plus arm.
Now, his fastball velocity might have been playing up in the bullpen because in AA there was a report of 92-93 mph.
Yankees RHP Yoendrys Gómez has yet to give up a run with 9 strikeouts in 8.2 innings this year with Somerset. Threw 3 scoreless in this start working mostly with a 92-93 MPH fastball and slider combo pic.twitter.com/RuLpS3lZZD
— Trevor Hooth (@HoothTrevor) June 10, 2023
He has not been in any recent prospect reports but I want to see how he gets valued when deeper team reports emerge (e.g. Baseball America Top-30). Depending on his role, he’s someone I don’t want to lose track of in draft-and-holds.
Over four different levels (A to MLB), the 23-year-old righty made 28 starts with his combined minor league stats at 3.50 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 13.0 K/9. The Red struggled in the majors with an 8.64 ERA (6.60 xFIP), 1.92 WHIP (8.1 BB/9), and 6.5 K/9 in 16 IP.
The only plus trait he flashed in the majors was a 96-mph fastball (6% SwStr%). None of his secondaries had a swinging-strike rate over 10%. In AAA, his changeup did have a 17.6% SwStr% (9.4% in the majors).
He didn’t have a slider the first time he was called up but did the second time. Here are its comps.
The comps aren’t the worst and might be worth pairing with just the fastball and change.
His lack of control will keep him off fantasy radars, but he has some interesting pieces to focus on.
In eight major league starts with the Cardinals, the 23-year-old lefty struggled with an 8.02 ERA (5.60 xFIP), 2.08 WHIP (5.1 BB/9), and 8.6 K/9. While he was able to strikeout batters in the minors last season (10.5 K/9), walks were also issue (4.8 BB/9).
I’m surprised he gets as many strikeouts as he does with near 90-mph fastballs (91 mph four-seamer, 88 mph sinker) that he throws for a combined 68% of the time. Besides the two fastballs, he throws a slider/sweeper (6% SwStr%) and Splitter (10% SwStr%). In AAA, hitters were chasing all of his pitches with the four-seamer, slider/sweeper, and splitter getting swinging-strike rates over 18%.
The disconnect might be that hitters in the majors can discern his two different release points.
Rom pitched like someone who knows the Orioles as well as anyone, deceptively changing arm angles and locating 63 of his 93 pitches (68 percent) for strikes.
As seen here:
Usually, he drops down against lefties who he only throws fastballs (75% combined usage, no splitters).
Overall, he’s a complete mess with no major league swing-and-miss since he relies on his 90-mph fastball too much.
The 28-year-old lefty struggled in 33 IP with a 3.82 ERA (4.87 xFIP), 1.48 WHIP (3.8 BB/9) and 7.9 K/9. While his stat line will show only three starts, he had an opener for three of the other seven games where he went five innings in each. In 100 IP in AAA, the numbers were similar at 4.95 ERA (4.91 xFIP), 1.51 WHIP (4.1 BB/9), and 10.8 K/9.
He attacked hitters with a 91-mph fastball that doesn’t miss bats (6% SwStr% in majors, 7% in AAA). His changeup is his best performing pitch with a 17% SwStr% in the majors (23% in AAA). Also, he throws a slider and curveball which perform below league average.
I can’t recommend a pitcher with just a plus changeup but everything else is below average including his control. The Angels have ignored him, fantasy managers can also.
Previous Select Late-Season Arms articles.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.