Second Half Surges & Crashes

Aside from rooting for my own teams to finish in a prize spot at the end of season, I also find myself doing a different kind of rooting. That is, I love to see players continue their offensive surges and crashes that could potentially lead to overvaluation or undervaluation in next year’s drafts and auctions. If a hitter has enjoyed a surprising surge, let that continue to ensure my leaguemates will pay through the nose for him! Likewise, if a hitter has suffered a surprising crash, the hope is there’s no turnaround before the season ends as I love to scoop up players coming off down years, as they are typically undervalued.

So today during the regular season’s final week, let’s review the hitters that have experienced both surges and crashes in wRC+ over the final three months. Rather than use traditional half splits that overweights the first half, the first period will be cut off at the end of June, with the second beginning when July commences. Do we think these are going to be some of the names that are overvalued and undervalued next year? Let’s discuss.

After last year’s injury marred and disappointing performance, it would have been easy to assume Bo Bichette has legitimately regressed as a hitter after another ho-hum for three months. Then he suddenly caught fire after the calendar flipped to July and he mashed until he hit the IL.

One of the most significant improvements on the season is a career best strikeout rate, which fell precipitously into the mid-teens. That was even paired with a career high walk rate, though that mark still remains below league average. His BABIP rebounded back to his career average as well, so combined with the reduced strikeout rate, he returned to being a strong batted average contributor.

Unfortunately, his home run power is still off, as while it rebounded from last year, more than doubling, it still represents his lowest in a full season by a meaningful margin. His Statcast metrics remains good, though his Barrel% still lags his 2021-2023 season. Still, this was a reminder that baseball players are human, sometimes have random down seasons, and usually bounce right back assuming the decline wasn’t age-related. He’s not going to be overvalued next year, as he’ll be right back to being valued before this season’s drafts.

What on Earth got into George Springer?! He already did have a strong first half, rebounding off his weaker last two seasons, but he’s been out of his mind since the beginning of July. A 203 wRC+, seriously?! And he just turned 36 years old, so this definitely wasn’t expected.

There are quite a few drivers of the renaissance. First, his FB% jumped back above 40% for the first time over a full season, after last posting such marks in partial seasons in 2020 and 2021. Next, his BABIP surges to its highest mark since all the way back in 2015, his season season in the Majors. Third, he rediscovered his power stroke, and his HardHit% and Barrel% marks both sit at career highs.

After middling seasons the last two years, though still valuable in fantasy circles, this was unexpected, to say the least. Do you trust that the now 36-year-old is a new man or worry that aging effects will win out and he’ll resemble the 2023 and 2024 version more closely? I’m going to guess he won’t be overvalued because fantasy owners heavily weight age and likely won’t be willing to bet big on a repeat here. That said, I’m curious where his price ends up landing and whether he ends up being worth the risk.

Welcome back Willy Adames, we missed you in the first half! Departing one of the better parks for right-handed home runs for one of the worst clearly wasn’t going to end up well for Adames’ home run power. But we certainly expected more than just nine home runs and a batting average at risk of dipping below the Mendoza Line.

Clearly, he got the memo, as he has been much more like the guy the Giants thought they were getting. He still struggles at Oracle Park, posting just a 11.7% HR/FB rate, versus a 17.7% mark on the road, but the second half has been strong enough that his full season mark is now right in line with last year. Outside of a drop in BABIP, the second half essentially brought all of his metrics right in line with expectations. He won’t be overvalued next year, but he’s definitely not going to be undervalued like he was trending toward earlier in the year.

Brenton Doyle went from just a deep leaguers in 2023 to an exciting power/speed combo platter last year. Alas, it wasn’t meant to continue. He endured a brutal first half which cost him PAs, but he has rebounded completely in the second half, posting a wRC+ right in line with where he finished last year. He still owns the power/speed mix and plays excellent defense, which should help keep him in the lineup.

One note here is that he’s best deployed at home only. Over his career, he has posted a .336 wOBA at home, with 11 more home runs and steals, versus just a .250 wOBA on the road. It makes him a tougher start for weekly transaction leaguers who sometimes have to decide whether to go with a half home and half road slate for the week, but he’s an excellent daily league asset. Again, won’t be overvalued, but his playing time outlook will be key.

Okay, Michael Harris II’s monthly wRC+ splits are comical. By month, and including March with April, he’s gone 65, 65, 11, 131, 142, 4. Yes, he has posted a wRC+ of 4 over 75 September PAs. That performance has completely ruined his second half and attempts to fully rebound off his poor first half. What’s funny is that aside from his wOBA, his fantasy stats are similar to last year, which is to say, reasonably valuable, though I don’t understand how he has managed to score just 51 runs all season with his speed.

While there are some flaws here, like the microscopic 2.6% walk rate, the skills here are perfectly good and should be delivering significantly more. He’s still going to be just 25 years old next year so it would be silly to write him off as he has what he is. The cool thing about the awful September is it might keep him cheap next year, as his July and August outburst could have pushed his price back up near what he cost this year.

Wow, this was quite the rebound season for Trevor Story! What’s crazy is that he was so awful early in the season that he was actually dropped in my 12-team mixed league (I didn’t even care to pick him up). Oops. This is the most PAs Story has accrued since 2019. Want to bet on him clearing 600 PAs again next year?!

I think his skills suggest most of this is pretty legit, but I certainly wouldn’t bank on 30+ steals again, as he has set a career high there. I think that he might have the best chance of being overvalued after an absolutely best case scenario season, depending on where Springer’s cost lands.

Man, after a first half that made James Wood look like an absolute superstar in his sophomore season, he has disappointed since. But interestingly, his overall season numbers are still right in line with the preseason projections, but with some extra power. So here’s an example of a guy hitting well ahead of expectations, but eventually the pendulum swung back and the season line looks normal. This is similar to some names on the surges list, but he reversed the splits.

I love Wood’s skill set…or at least most of it. I’m not too worried about the high strikeout rate because his 12.5% SwStk% suggests a sub-30% mark. He’s simply been too passive on pitches inside the strike zone, swinging at them far less than the league average. It’s a problem I’ve noted before that others hitters have dealt with, but it doesn’t mean it’ll automatically be corrected at some point. I point it out because I’d rather this issue as the driver of a high strikeout rate than a whiff problem.

The other major issue is his FB%. He had always been in the 30% range in the minors, but then suddenly at Triple-A last year, that mark fell below 20%. In his Nationals debut last year, it barely increased, as he posted just a 22.2% FB%, and this year, it’s only inched up again to 26.2%. That’s the FB% you want from a speedy slap hitter, not one with gargantuan power. Of course, the batted ball profile helps his BABIP, but he could do a lot more damage given the 28.1% HR/FB rate.

So that’s the blueprint to a Hall of Fame career — swing at pitches in the zone more frequently and hit more fly balls. That’s it, easy peasy! Oh, and no, he’s not going to be undervalued next year and he’ll end up at or ahead of preseason expectations.

It was a surprise when Cam Smith earned a starting job out of Spring Training after recording just 134 minor league PAs, none of which came at Triple-A. He was quite good early in the season, but crashed since and he lost considerable playing time as a result.

Overall, his season line is acceptable, though not exactly what fantasy owners hoped for. The strikeout rate is high and he could also afford to hit more fly balls. The good news is he looks to have pretty good power upside. His HardHit% and maxEV are both above average, with quite a strong mark in the latter. He’s lagged in Barrel%, but that’s something that can be improved with the raw power he clearly possesses.

Depending on his playing time outlook, he could be undervalued next year after a meh rookie campaign. It’ll take quite a jump in power to become relevant in shallow mixed leagues, but he could be a nice target in deeper formats.

Would you look at that, despite the second half swoon, CJ Abrams’ season numbers are almost identical to last year. Once again, we’re seeing simple regression to the mean as hitters play over or under their heads for stretches, and then experience the other side of the coin. Abrams has been pretty darn consistent since his fantasy breakout in 2023. The only further upside I see is perhaps another level of power given his maxEV, which could result in a mid-teens HR/FB rate one day, maybe. He won’t be undervalued next year.

Gosh, I thought I was so smart for rostering Victor Scott II, thinking perhaps his plate discipline progress and power spike during the small sample of Spring Training were early indications of a breakout. Whoops. He was pretty solid early in the season, but has been useless since. He’s a hitter who has no business hitting fly balls at the rate he does, as he simply doesn’t have the power to do anything with those flies. He should be hitting as many balls on the ground or as line drives as possible!

I doubt he goes into next season as a starter, so I guess that could make him undervalued because he’ll be close to free! Since there are clearly paths to improvement here and he has managed to steal 33 bases with just a .303 OBP, he’s still worth remembering in deep mixed and NL-Only leagues next year.

It’s been a weird season for Riley Greene. His BABIP has plummeted significantly in the second half, which is a big reason for the drop in wRC+. But his home run power has remained pretty consistent, as he alternated hitting six and then seven home runs each month…until September. This month has really dragged down his second half and full season numbers, as he has hit just two home runs with a 51 wRC+. Hey, everyone has a bad month!

For the season, he has been quite strong for fantasy owners, almost assuredly earning them a profit on the 30+ home runs and 100+ RBI. The Statcast metrics easily support to HR/FB rate climbing above 20%. Another driver of his home run outperformance is a surge in FB%. It’s anyone’s guess if this is his new level or he regresses back to the mid-30% range, or gulp, the mid-20% range like he was at in 2022 and 2023. Perhaps he should speak to James Wood about how to increase FB%.

The one metric to watch is his strikeout rate and SwStk%, which have both jumped to career worst. That’s not a great combo with a walk rate that has also dropped. It has crushed his OBP, resulting in identical runs scored, despite 10 more home runs and 51 more PAs. He’s not going to be undervalued next year, of course.

It’s crazy to think that a 20 home runs and 36 steal season from Elly De La Cruz is disappointing, but it definitely feels like it. Of course, no one should have expected anywhere near 67 steals again, but I personally thought there was further home run upside.

The good news is he has cut his strikeout rate, which now sits in the mid-20% range instead of over 30%. He still hits too many grounders and not enough fly balls though, both rates moving in opposite directions than what you’d want. The Statcast metrics still look pretty good, with that elite 117.4 MPH maxEV suggesting some massive power upside.

I doubt he’s undervalued next year, but I do think he’ll hit 30 home runs in a season within the next couple of years. It’ll depend on how many steals that’s paired with to determine whether he earns his owners any profit on what figures to be a hefty price annually.