Second Base Consensus Ranks for the Second Half
The baseball world is quiet. Only the All-Stars are stirring, and even that action puts many baseball fans to sleep. 90% of the game is on a three-day vacation — but not the gang here at RotoGraphs headquarters. Given the fact that all the teams have played more than half their games, it’s time to update the consensus ranks for the rest of the season. These are built for 12-team mixed leagues with traditional 5×5 stats, but we extended the rankings as far down as we could in order to give managers of all types a reference for the second half.
You’ll disagree with the placement of some of the names on this list — we disagreed with ourselves. And that was the point. You add your opinion to the three shown on this list, and you’re more likely to understand the different ways a player is valued and how best to take advantage of those different valuations.
Like most of our rankings, the top three haven’t changed much at second base. Well, one important player has dropped like a rock — Dustin Pedroia just can’t stay healthy. And while we always liked Jason Kipnis and Jose Altuve here at RotoGraphs, it’s Kipnis’ sustained speed and Altuve’s health and consistency that have helped them rise above the fallers in the field.
If you’re like us, you’ll disagree on Michael Cuddyer and Michael Young the most — these two veterans have upset saberists at times and aren’t having great years, but they still have the skill set to make the top ten at a tough position. Aaron Hill’s re-break-out confounds, and is worth a second and third look as the season progresses. Everybody wants Omar Infante to get a better ranking, but there’s no reason to believe he’s found power at his age. Speaking of finding power, Trevor Plouffe is number one with a bullet but you’ll find plenty of disagreement about the sustainability of that skill.
It’s a tough position. If I told you I had a second baseman with a rest-of-season projection of oh, about a .265 batting average with seven homers and five steals, you might have to go through ten or so names before you guessed my player. That’s pretty mediocre.
| FanGraphs Consensus Rankings: Second Base |
||||||
| New | Last | Player Name | Eno Sarris | Mike Podhorzer | Jeff Zimmerman | Zach Sanders |
| 1 | 1 | Robinson Cano | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | Ian Kinsler | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 3 | 4 | Brandon Phillips | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 4 | 12 | Jason Kipnis | 3 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
| 5 | 13 | Jose Altuve | 5 | 11 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | 6 | Ben Zobrist | 6 | 5 | 8 | 8 |
| 7 | 9 | Michael Cuddyer | 10 | 3 | 5 | 11 |
| 8 | 21 | Allen Craig | 7 | 8 | 15 | 4 |
| 9 | 2 | Dustin Pedroia | 9 | 15 | 7 | 7 |
| 10 | 7 | Dan Uggla | 8 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
| 11 | 8 | Howie Kendrick | 12 | 9 | 12 | 13 |
| 12 | 20 | Aaron Hill | 11 | 17 | 10 | 9 |
| 13 | 5 | Michael Young | 14 | 7 | 14 | 17 |
| 14 | 11 | Neil Walker | 13 | 13 | 9 | 18 |
| 15 | 14 | Kelly Johnson | 19 | 16 | 18 | 15 |
| 16 | N/A | Kyle Seager | 16 | 23 | 16 | 14 |
| 17 | 38 | Trevor Plouffe | 18 | 19 | 22 | 12 |
| 18 | 23 | Chase Utley | 15 | 12 | 31 | 16 |
| 19 | 15 | Dustin Ackley | 20 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
| 20 | 10 | Rickie Weeks | 22 | 14 | 21 | 21 |
| 21 | 18 | Mike Aviles | 17 | 21 | 20 | 22 |
| 22 | 19 | Danny Espinosa | 21 | 20 | 13 | 30 |
| 23 | N/A | Marco Scutaro | 25 | 24 | 17 | 27 |
| 24 | 24 | Omar Infante | 23 | 26 | 27 | 19 |
| 25 | 16 | Jemile Weeks | 24 | 25 | 30 | 23 |
| 26 | 17 | Daniel Murphy | 26 | 27 | 25 | 29 |
| 27 | 26 | Gordon Beckham | 29 | 22 | 24 | 33 |
| 28 | 30 | Ruben Tejada | 27 | 34 | 36 | 24 |
| 29 | 29 | Darwin Barney | 28 | 32 | 26 | 35 |
| 30 | 22 | Ryan Roberts | 33 | 28 | 29 | 36 |
| 31 | 31 | Mark Ellis | 31 | 33 | 38 | 25 |
| 32 | 36 | Steve Lombardozzi | 32 | 38 | 32 | 28 |
| 33 | 37 | Brian Roberts | 38 | 41 | 29 | 26 |
| 34 | 27 | Sean Rodriguez | 34 | 37 | 35 | 31 |
| 35 | N/A | Jose Lopez | 30 | 43 | 23 | 42 |
| 36 | 32 | Orlando Hudson | 37 | 30 | 34 | 40 |
| 37 | 28 | Alexi Casilla | 36 | 31 | 42 | 34 |
| 38 | 35 | Johnny Giavotella | 39 | 42 | 28 | 39 |
| 39 | N/A | Yuniesky Betancourt | 41 | 39 | 33 | 38 |
| 40 | 33 | Maicer Izturis | 35 | 40 | 40 | 37 |
| 41 | N/A | Skip Schumaker | 37 | 44 | 41 | 32 |
| 42 | N/A | Alexi Amarista | 40 | 36 | 39 | 41 |
| 43 | N/A | Robert Andino | 43 | 35 | 37 | 43 |
| 44 | 25 | Ryan Raburn | 42 | 29 | 44 | 44 |
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
How does Mike Podhozer have Jose Altuve at 11th? I can kind of understand ranking him that low for real baseball purposes, but this fantasy baseball.
His peripherals support his production and he’ll likely finish with 90-100 runs, 50 RBI, 30 SB, 10 HR and a .300 batting average. He doesn’t walk much but his average is high enough to keep his OBP respectable, so it’s not like you lose much in an OBP league. I can see his average dipping a little bit due to a slightly high Babip, but his Babip is inline with his minor league totals and is sustainable. I see him as the 4th-6th best second baseman in pretty much any format.
***If Allen Craig is eligible at 2B in your league…..he’s top 3.
A .338 BABIP is not “sustainable.” At least not if you’re using that word correctly.
Or, it’s very probably not. The population of players in the modern era with a true-talent BABIP that high is tiny.
Of course it is…look at his career numbers. He’s got a combined 1500+ AB’s through his minor and major league career with a BABIP above .330. The rest of his at bats, all 448 of them, produced a BABIP below the .330 mark.
yeah, MiLB BABIP isn’t the same as MLB BABIP (really, it’s not).
ZiPS ROS projects him at pretty much that babip, give or take.
he’s fast, doesn’t hit HR…i don’t see the big leap.
ZiPS(r) projects his BABIP 11 points lower in the second half. Which, when most of your value comes from the fact that you hit a lot of singles, is sort of a lot.
A .338 BABIP is great, but hardly outrageous. And, ZiPS(r) at 11 points lower means, what, 3 less hits in the ~300 PA he’s projected to have ROS? You’re talking a 1% total difference, if you’re to buy completely into ZiPS. Not so big a deal.
Personally, I’d love if if Podhorzer is right, since I traded for Cuddyer and other than his two homer game almost a month ago, he’s done squat for my team.
The funny thing is, I was one of the biggest Altuve fans pre-season (one of my bold predictions was that he’d be a top 5 2nd baseman this year) and own him in my home league. But, he’s doing nearly exactly what I projected him to, with a slight bump in all categories. I actually valued him as the 8th best 2B before the season, but that excluded guys like Michael Young and Allen Craig, which pushed Altuve down in these rankings.
Wow 2B is crazy deep. Surprised everyone is still so bullish on Kendrick – a lot of the middle of the pack guys I would take over him, but his ranking isn’t toooooo high.. Soured on Jemile, I would take Murphy over him. Rickie would be even lower if not for Mike’s confounding placement.. Good list!
Weeks’ problems stem primarily from his BABIP and contact issues, but I’d bet on improved contact in the 2nd half given his career history rather than weighting one half a season of contact problems so heavily. Walk rate good, batted ball profile normal, power is down yes, but without any injury I’m aware of and at age 29, no reason to think he should continue to suck just because he did in the first half.
you guys have just barely enough knowledge to make you dangerous…..aaron hill is repeating his fantastic season from 2010 without the mutiple injuries that slowed him down in 2010…he should be at least ahead 6 spots…..uggla has been deemed to be a second half monster based on his track record…how amny years of 30 or more simpsons…..he has 18-20 homers in him for the second half…….pedroia is hurt….altuve a rookie with no sustainability…..craig waiting for another dl stint…..and zobrist and kendrick having down years……mike u r the worst/best of the group….keep up the good work .
fortunately…ted…has…all…the…knowledge…you…guys…are…missing…as…well…as…a…typing…style…that…makes…me…read…his…post…in…christopher…walken’s…voice.
Daniel Murphy
green or red color ?
fixed thanks
Allen Craig is a stud…first basemen. His power totals more than make up for any lack of speed or playing time/injury concerns that appear to be pushing him down the ranks. Even if he doesn’t play every single game, or goes on the DL at some point, his production in combo with a replacement player still makes him an elite 2B. His current numbers prorated over 300 at bats (he’s at 176 now) would be 22 HR, 75 RBI, and 54 R. I understand there may be a production regression to an extent, but if he had the 330 AB Cano had
I understand there may be a production regression to an extent, but if he had the 330 AB Cano had…just imagine. Regardless of what many seem to be speculating in regards to ‘playing time concerns,’ it is likely safe to say Craig has established himself as an elite middle-or-the-order producer…at any position, but especially at 2B.
I think ranking him fourth as Zach did reflects your opinion.
Jeff Zimmerman obviously has never heard of Allen Craig and is throwing out guesses. Danny Espinosa, Neil Walker, and Howie Kendrick rather than Craig? Some of his responses are so bad that they dramatically skew the whole article and make it less useful…
Here’s the thing about Zimmerman’s rankings: they are the least guesswork of the bunch. His are based 99.9% on ZiPs Rest of Season projections, put into a calculator to get comparative value. So while the other three guys are using intuition more, he’s going by the numbers.
Zimmerman uses the numbers because he does not play fantasy baseball (That’s what he said in a chat session last year if I remember correctly). He has no personal bias or love for any player. I could be wrong and it might have been on of the other guys but I’m pretty sure it was Zimm so my apolgies If I’m incorrect.
Correction: I play fantasy baseball
I used rZiPs.
Allen’s projections have him similar to those players ahead of him. 9HRs, 0.285 AVG. His SB values, among the 2B are his down fall.
So they’re 100% irrespective of the players’ acutal skill. NBD.
Maybe you don’t know how ZiPs in-season projections work? Yes, the player’s skill is involved.
I’m not a SABR darling, no. But I see Craig and say, “damn that boy can hit.” I can see having him behind Cano, Kinsler, Phillips (meh), and Kipnis, mostly due to the concerns I expressed above (playing time, injury, steals), but as far as pure hitting ability is concerned, from an eyeball’s perspective, it sure seems like Craig is neck and neck with Cano. It seems clear the metrics don’t support my perception, however. If you could give a few reasons why this is the case, I’d appreciate it.
Just mostly playing time issues. He’s got a terrible glove, and he won’t play center or second unless the team forces the issue. So Berkman is back in a week or so, and then Craig might become a super utility player. That’s actually built into the projections, which have him only getting 200 more PAs in the second half.
I think if you could guarantee 300 PA for Craig in the second half, his ranking would be much higher… but the injury rusk and potential positional issues are real, and real life affects fantasy value. Considering the hedge against playing time risk, and the fact that he contributes nothing in SB, I think #8 at the position is pretty fair. Maybe you could wiggle him up a spot or two, but you can’t put him ahead of proven performers with good health. I think it’s a pretty fair ranking.
I mean, that’s fine. I can live with that. But having Beltran, Holliday, Craig, Berkman, Freese, and Yadier in the same line up sure seems to outweigh any lack of defensive prowess. They can be an AL-powerhouse-hitting team in a light-hitting NL division. And if you think of their pitching woes, they’re gonna need to out-slug opponents, not small ball/defensively smother them. Again, I’m just a fan who sees players play, mostly.
Don’t be afraid to reply inside the original thread. It’s only scary the first time.
Tell that to the Tigers.
I’m sorry but that #3 overall rank for Phillips is insane. His counting stats make me as hard as Richard Simmons’ handshake.
I see Rickie Weeks having a big 2nd half.
F all of you for hating on guys giving their rankings… Where’s your research? Where’s your postings? Where’s your website? That’s right you have none, thats why you’re here. If you don’t appreciate these guys providing quality post after quality post then don’t visit the site. F your passive aggressive opinions. Chumps.
I can’t tell which this way this post goes but it made me laugh. Everyone has a right to their opinion of course, I’m just defending/explaining our thinking when I post here.
I’m certainly not attacking anyone’s research here. Everyone has the same risk for injury, regardless if Craig has been injured or not. Cano can fall down a flight of stairs tonight, break his wrist sliding into 2nd, etc, etc. I understand his fantasy value hinges on his real life value to that team, and, if you ask me, it seems to be pretty high. What about Berkman and Beltran’s injury risk? Is that factored in? My argument is simply, assuming Craig stay healthy, which SHOULD be the assumption for all these players, he out produces every 2B handedly, save Cano, in every counting batting category besides steals.
You can find steals easily and cheaply, not legit, power producers in their prime in a productive offense.
Past history has absolutely no bearing on a person’s injury risk in the future? I beg to differ. Yes, we all have the potential to be injured, but some people are deemed unfit for athletic activities more than others. Maybe it’s due to poor stretching prior to exercise lack of vitamins, or just plain clumsiness. Who knows? The point being some guys breakdown on a regular basis while others are seemingly never hurt. It’s a fact of life, and one that cannot be ignored. In fantasy and real life.
I hope Uggla comes through! I just traded away Craig for Gallardo, so Im all in on Uggla.
I have made myself so sad for drafting me so friggin early. My friend Edwin Encarnacion and AJP have kept my spirits up though.
Espinoza probably deserves a little more love. On pace for 15/25, from 2b that’s pretty solid, even with the shaky AVG., I’ll take that every year. Someone has him @ 30. There are not (29) 2nd basemen w/ better counting numbers than Espinoza, Zach needs a vacation.
gonetilnovember is really Zach Sanders : )
If Zimm is going to use a formula to essentially mandate his ranks, why not put the acronym at the top of the header?
Need to factor in health risk, too. Anyone expecting healtht and productive Pedroia lives in a dream world.
The column should say “Zippermann.”
I just imagine the Cards taking a bat as perma-hot as Craig’s out of the lineup. Blast the AC, because he’s about to stay healthy rival Cano for that number one spot.
Cannot*