Second Base ADP Market Report: 1/18/2021

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day.

Top 100 Players Rising

Ketel Marte (+13.81)- I am a bit surprised to see Marte rising after a year where he dealt with injury and under performed in both the speed and power departments. Marte had a massive 2019 and it is likely people are willing to throw out the 2020 disappointment and blame it on injury and the short sample. I was already a little reluctant to give him a pass after he spent time on the IL late in the season twice in the last two years. The price jump makes me even less likely to draft him. 

Top 100 Players Falling

None

Top 200 Players Rising

Tommy Edman (+18.27)- After falling in the ADP last month, Edman went above where he was originally in draft season. 2020 was difficult for the Cardinals after having to play 11 doubleheaders because of postponements due to COVID. In spite of struggling in 2020, Edman played in 55 games for the Cardinals, including in both ends of eight doubleheaders. The speed is legit and he should hit for enough power to play and he is eligible at 2B, SS, 3B, and OF in most formats which makes him insanely valuable for roster flexibility. 

Nick Solak (+17.79)- Solak’s climb isn’t completely unexpected. He showed that he can hit for a bit of pop and some surprising speed and he has eligibility at 2B and OF. However, his struggles versus right handed pitching can’t be ignored and while he has safe playing time for now, if it doesn’t improve, he could find himself in a platoon. The price isn’t bad right now, but it comes with risk. 

Andres Gimenez (+39.81)- It is not surprising to see Gimenez climbing up the ADP after his trade from the Mets to the Indians, but it was already starting to rise prior to this. However, it is and should continue to rise even more. His ADP since the trade is about 160. Gimenez should play full time in Cleveland. He has enough pop to play and a lot of speed. If he is let loose on the bases, he could be a 10/30 guy.  

Top 200 Players Falling

Jonathan Villar (-14.12)- Villar continues to fall largely due to the fact he has not signed with a team. Villar has shown the ability to be a huge boon or bust for fantasy players in recent years. He has a decent amount of power and a ton of speed, but playing time is key for him to make an impact. Right now he is a huge gamble until we know his role. 

Top 300 Players Rising

Ty France (+49.02)- France has moved up quite a lot over the last month. He has played well over the last two seasons in limited time. Now that he is with the Mariners, he seems to be in line for full time playing time now. That being said, there are some really concerning issues with France. His StatCast data is not good at all. His exit velocity is among the worst in baseball (8th percentile) and his hard hit percentage is less than 30%. I don’t know that he has a ton of power coming or will hit for a relatively strong average. Even with full time playing time, he is probably a 20 homer bat with a .260ish average and that is if the Mariners don’t decide to play other players over him because of defense or underperformance. 

Scott Kingery (+51.21)- Kingery has some pop in his bat and plenty of speed, but he has struggled to make contact and stay on the field. Even when he was on the field, he struggled. His zone contact rate was 73% and his swinging strike rate was over 16%. If he can’t find a way to swing and miss less and make more contact, then there isn’t much reason to buy into his rising ADP. 

Mauricio Dubon (+27.63)- I worry that Dubon will end up being a super utility guy, but the Giants seem like they want to give him plenty of run in 2021. He doesn’t have a ton of power or a ton of speed, but he provides a little bit of everything. His triple eligibility makes him very interesting in deeper formats as a bench bat that can cover a lot of positions. 

Top 300 Players Falling

Gavin Lux (-26.14)- Lux continues to fall likely due to fears about his playing time. The Dodgers have yet to add to their offense, but it seems likely they will bring back Justin Turner and could add more than that in the infield. The Dodgers could end up trading Lux or sending him back down to the minors. I believe in Lux long term, but the Dodgers don’t seem to at this point.