Searching for Wins Among the Followers

Here’s how Justin Mason put it in last Friday’s edition of The Sleeper and the Bust:

 “This is one of the things people should really be thinking about, strategy-wise, the rest of the way…look for these opportunities where you can grab the follower in good matchups because as teams start to limit their guys…this is a time where you can really get some guys without going over any kind of starts limits.”

It can be challenging to figure out just who is most likely to come out of the pen as a first reliever. Luckily, I wrote some code that will help me track this for a piece I did on relievers following the starter. For this article, I’ve used that code to see which relievers come into the game directly after the starter most often on each of the teams that are very likely to clinch the playoffs and thus, rest their starters by limiting their innings. The idea would be to pick up these pitchers, especially if you reach your start limit early, in hopes of picking up an extra win or two. 

The list below shows teams that have over a 90% chance of making the playoffs according to our odds. From there, I looked at pitchers who have come in to replace the starter more than 10 times. It’s really anyone’s guess as to how many wins these pitchers will earn the rest of the way, I’m not going to try to predict wins among relievers at this point in the season. However, I was re-assured that the correlation between the number of times a pitcher has relieved the starter and the number of wins they have accumulated so far in the season is a promising .54. Here are the relief pitchers who may be able to get you a few more wins the rest of the way:

One thing to keep in mind, however, is that not all of the wins listed here are specific to the reliever’s appearance spot. For example, San Francisco’s Jay Jackson has accumulated two wins this season. One of those wins came as he appeared directly after the starter and one came from an appearance as the fourth reliever. Regardless, there is a connection between the number of times a reliever follows and the wins they earn, and at this point in the season, it is appropriate to target first relievers on these specific teams because we’re hoping they are taking on a heavier load, allowing the starter to limit his innings.

You may also notice Christian Javier and his zero wins. Javier actually has three wins on the season, but those came during starts and therefore are not reflected in the table above. It’s not an exact science, but the managers still (for some reason) won’t tell us who will follow, who will appear third, and who will close out the game before the game actually starts. So, we need to do some guessing.