Searching for Strikeouts

I honestly can’t believe the season is almost over. I’m already sad about it, but instead of moping I want to enjoy these final few weeks of the regular season before what should be a great playoff and World Series. The day-to-day volatility of baseball can make it tough to find key waiver pickups with less than a month to go. Usually we need a couple of weeks to truly see if a guy can deliver for you, but we simply don’t have that kind of time so our gambles need to be even more calculated than in May or June when we still have more season in front of us than behind. I’ve been meticulously combing the waiver wires looking for every little edge and I think I’ve found some arms for those of you in need of strikeouts.

THE REDS

Brandon Finnegan: The Reds schedule shapes up to leverage multiple starters for some strikeouts starting with Finnegan this weekend. His next three starts are at Pittsburgh, home against Pittsburgh, and then at Milwaukee. Those two teams are both top-5 in strikeout rate against lefties – top-5 being bad in this case.

The Brewers are third at 25% and the Pirates are right behind them at 24%. Finnegan hasn’t leveraged Milwaukee’s strikeout tendencies this year with five strikeouts in 11.3 IP against them in two starts and he’s yet to face Pittsburgh, but his strikeout rate has been great of late. He went through an eight-start run without fanning more than five even once, but since then he has logged at least six strikeouts in each of his last four, including 12 at Arizona. His swinging strike rate is up at 14.7% over this run and part of that success has come from getting ahead. He has a 65% first-pitch strike rate in these four starts, compared to 55% for the season.

Dan Straily: I really like him for a Milwaukee-Pittsburgh-Milwaukee trio after tonight against the Pirates. The Brewers have the worst strikeout rate against righties at 26% so even though the Pirates are a middling 17th (21%), Straily is still worth the add just to lock in the two Brewers starts. He has lived in that 7.5 K/9 range throughout his career, but he has consistently posted swinging strike rates that portend more of a 8-8.5 rate. He’s spiked an 11-strikeout game (matching his career-high) and an 8 this year (tied for his second-highest total, he’s done it four times) and I think we could see another flurry here in September.

Anthony DeSclafani: I’m including him just in case he’s available, but he’s probably rostered in most competitive leagues. Absolutely scoop him immediately if not. He has career-bests in his strikeout (22%, 7.9) and swinging strike (10%) rates. He has 54 strikeouts in 57 innings over his last nine starts, too, with a 3-strikeout start against St. Louis being the only blemish. He’s on 2/3rds of rosters at ESPN so I know he won’t be widely available, but just check.

THE YANKEES

Luis Cessa: This one requires some legwork. You can’t just set it and forget it because while he does get two starts against Tampa Bay over his next three, the middle of those is at Boston. The Rays have the fourth-highest strikeout rate against righties at 24% and Cessa gets them this Sunday and then likely again in Tampa Bay on September 22nd. His 10% swinging strike rate has been begging for more than a 15% (or 5.6 K/9) strikeout rate. The Yankees close four at Toronto and three games sets at home against Boston and Baltimore so after the at TB start, you can confidently move on from Cessa.

Michael Pineda: Double negative be damned, I can’t not include Pineda here. He frustrates me to no end, but he also gets two against Tampa Bay and his strikeout potential is even better than Cessa’s. A lot better, really, but he also loves allowing 5+ ER every couple of starts. He does have 20 strikeouts against Tampa Bay in 14.3 IP, but he allowed 5+ ER all three times. You’re really playing with fire when it comes to Pineda, but desperate times call for desperate measures (new phrase, just made it up!) and a 26% strikeout rate (10.2 K/9) and 14% swinging strike rate are both sexy.

TWO OTHERS

Jon Gray: This is a sneak tip recommendation to pick up and hold Gray the rest of the way. For the strikeouts, the major appeal is getting San Diego back-to-back starting this Saturday. They have the second-highest strikeout rate against righties at 25%, which matches Gray’s season strikeout rate. The Padres have been integral in Gray’s breakout, unsurprisingly. His two biggest strikeout games are 12 and 11, both against the Padres in San Diego. He went seven strong with seven strikeouts in his home start against them.

He should close the season with starts in Los Angeles and San Francisco. He allowed five in five against the Dodgers in his season opener, but has allowed just three earned in 17 innings in three starts since then. All told, it’s a 3.27 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 28 strikeouts in 22 IP. My only reservation with Gray is that he’s not immune to the disaster start and it’s not just Coors-related. Monster duds at St. Louis (9 ER) and Philly (6 ER) have pushed his road ERA up to 4.18, but he’s allowed more than 3 ER just one other time on the road. Part of me really wishes Gray was on another organization just so Coors couldn’t mess with him.

Archie Bradley: This one is a true Hail Mary. There’s nothing particularly alluring about Bradley’s skills. He walks way too many, allows too many homers, and only has a solid strikeout rate (21%, 8.5) – you need like a 10+ strikeout rate to counter a 1.52 WHIP. But! Bradley gets San Diego twice down the stretch and they come later which helps when you drop one of the others. The first at San Diego on September 20th and the other should be October 1st – the penultimate game of the season. Maybe you can assess your situation after using some of these other guys and see if you need to take the risk with Bradley.