Scott’s Miscellany – League-Neutral FIP

The title of the article is an allusion to Schott’s Miscellany, which you should definitely check out if you never have and feel compelled to know that a group of larks is called an exaltation or that a member of the 32nd degree of Freemasonry is known as a Sublime Prince of the Royal Secret.

–League-Neutral FIP–

A few weeks ago, I was researching quality of opposition and stumbled upon the unsurprising conclusion that there are major differences in the AL and NL. For pitchers, one difference between the leagues is obvious. In the NL, they face opposing pitchers. In the AL, they face designated hitters.

It can be difficult to tease out the impact of that difference for pitchers in stats like ERA because runs are the result of a series of events that are not easily attributable to individual players. However, with FIP, pitchers are measured only by their strikeouts, walks, and home runs, each of which can be assigned to a specific batter. As such, you can adjust FIP for league by measuring those strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed by pitchers against only non-pitcher, non-DH batters. It does not wholly capture the differences in quality of competition between the leagues, but does account for the most glaring discrepancy in types of batters faced.

Best Starters in 2014 by League-Neutral FIP
Pitcher	FIP	lnFIP	Diff
Clayton Kershaw	1.81	2.03	-0.22
Corey Kluber	2.35	2.21	0.14
Felix Hernandez	2.56	2.43	0.13
Jake Arrieta	2.26	2.53	-0.27
David Price	2.78	2.56	0.22
Phil Hughes	2.65	2.58	0.07
Chris Sale	2.57	2.67	-0.10
Garrett Richards	2.60	2.74	-0.14
Jon Lester	2.80	2.82	-0.02
Hyun-Jin Ryu	2.62	2.85	-0.23

Beginning with the 2014 season, the league adjustment to FIP closes the gap between Clayton Kershaw and his closest AL competitors, Corey Kluber, Felix Hernandez, and David Price. Price, in particular, suffered from his duty to pitch to DHs. His 2.56 league-adjusted FIP was identical to Hernandez’s actual FIP. In contrast, Jake Arrieta was the biggest pitcher killer of the elite arms, a trend that he has continued in 2015 still with the Cubs.

Most Rewarded Pitchers, 2014
Pitcher	FIP	lnFIP	Diff
Wade Miley	3.98	4.32	-0.34
Gio Gonzalez	3.02	3.36	-0.34
Nathan Eovaldi	3.37	3.68	-0.31
Ryan Vogelsong	3.85	4.16	-0.31
Zack Wheeler	3.55	3.86	-0.31
Matt Garza	3.54	3.81	-0.27
Jake Arrieta	2.26	2.53	-0.27
Jordan Zimmermann	2.68	2.95	-0.27
Stephen Strasburg	2.94	3.21	-0.27
Ian Kennedy	3.21	3.47	-0.26

Overall, Wade Miley was the pitcher who benefitted most from the reality of the NL, a factor that may be contributing to his difficulties on the Red Sox this season. His 3.75 FIP this year bests both his actual and league-adjusted FIPs from last season, but that improvement is carried by an unsustainable 4.7 percent home run to flyball rate.

Nate Eovaldi is the other player on the list who has moved from the NL to the AL, and his league-neutral FIPs of 3.68 from 2014 and 4.07 from 2015 are much closer than his actual FIPs of 3.37 and 4.26.

Most Penalized Pitchers, 2014
Pitcher	FIP	lnFIP	Diff
Ricky Nolasco	4.30	3.79	0.51
Bud Norris	4.22	3.73	0.49
Chris Young	5.02	4.65	0.37
Jason Vargas	3.84	3.51	0.33
Wei-Yin Chen	3.89	3.56	0.33
Jake Peavy	4.11	3.80	0.31
C.J. Wilson	4.31	4.01	0.30
Jered Weaver	4.19	3.92	0.27
Trevor Bauer	4.01	3.74	0.27
Jeremy Guthrie	4.32	4.06	0.26

Eovaldi’s former teammate Ricky Nolasco leads the list of the most penalized pitchers from 2014 due to the AL DH, and he and Bud Norris are well clear of the field.

Best Starters in 2015 by League-Neutral FIP
Pitcher	FIP	lnFIP	Diff
Max Scherzer	2.02	2.16	-0.14
Michael Pineda	2.48	2.37	0.11
Corey Kluber	2.19	2.40	-0.21
Carlos Carrasco	2.63	2.41	0.22
Chris Archer	2.37	2.48	-0.11
Sonny Gray	2.59	2.54	0.05
Lance Lynn	2.81	2.57	0.24
Jesse Chavez	2.83	2.65	0.18
Clayton Kershaw	2.61	2.72	-0.11
Jake Arrieta	2.39	2.74	-0.35

Like in 2014, the top of the league-neutral FIP leaderboard is more bunched up than with actual FIP, but Max Scherzer retains the top spot over Michael Pineda. Neither player has seen the effect that Indians’ teammates Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco have, but they are oddly opposite one another. As an AL starter, Carrasco follows the normal pattern of showing a worse FIP than league-neutral FIP. Kluber has actually performed better against non-DH batters than DH batters to date. Lance Lynn has done the opposite in the NL.

Most Rewarded Pitchers, 2015
Pitcher	FIP	lnFIP	Diff
Brett Anderson	3.28	3.80	-0.52
Mike Fiers	3.67	4.14	-0.47
Mat Latos	3.49	3.91	-0.42
Dillon Gee	3.89	4.29	-0.40
Jeremy Hellickson	4.83	5.23	-0.40
Stephen Strasburg	3.65	4.01	-0.36
Gio Gonzalez	2.93	3.28	-0.35
Jake Arrieta	2.39	2.74	-0.35
Anthony DeSclafani	3.98	4.33	-0.35
Wily Peralta	4.65	4.99	-0.34

With only a couple of months behind us, the most rewarded and most penalized pitchers are more skewed than we saw for the entirety of 2014. Of the beneficiaries, Brett Anderson leads the way with more than half a run of benefit from his new home in the NL. Thirteen of his 34 total strikeouts are against pitchers. Mike Fiers is not far behind with 11 strikeouts of opposing pitchers. Only eight other pitchers are in double digits.

Most Penalized Pitchers, 2015
Pitcher	FIP	lnFIP	Diff
John Danks	5.18	4.58	0.60
Kyle Gibson	4.22	3.63	0.59
Ross Detwiler	6.05	5.51	0.54
Rick Porcello	5.06	4.55	0.51
Taijuan Walker	5.48	5.02	0.46
Scott Feldman	4.12	3.68	0.44
Nate Karns	4.27	3.84	0.43
Marco Estrada	4.99	4.56	0.43
Anibal Sanchez	4.44	4.03	0.41
Kyle Lobstein	4.12	3.72	0.40

The penalized pitchers are not the most attractive bunch in fantasy. Kyle Gibson was one of the few AL pitchers who had a better FIP (3.80) than league-neutral FIP (3.83) in 2014. That trend has completely turned around in 2015. And Rick Porcello did not move from the NL the way Miley did, but last season, his 3.62 league-neutral FIP was barely different from his 3.67 FIP. This year, it’s half a run lower.