Scott Strandberg’s Bold Predictions for 2015

I went 3-for-10 on my Bold Predictions last year, which is probably right around the sweet spot. Here, you will find this year’s crop of my unlikely — yet within the realm of possibility — predictions. These aren’t in any particular order, other than the order in which I thought of them. So, I guess they are in a particular order. They are in my chronological mind-order. Except for No. 10. I wrote that one fourth. Kind of ruins the whole theme. Oh, well.

1. Jorge Soler is a top-ten outfielder.

I’ve been crazy-high on Soler for quite a while now, so who better to lead off my Bold Predictions than the 23-year-old Cuban? Soler’s tools are out of this world, and they were on full display at every level last year, as he tore the cover off the ball, regardless of the level of competition.

As I said three weeks ago, I’m betting the over on pretty much every aspect of Soler’s projections. He’ll mash 30+ homers, flirt with 100 RBI, and far outgain however much it costs to acquire him for your fantasy team.

2. Alex Wood is a top-ten starting pitcher.

Last year, Wood developed a very good knuckle-curve to go with his fastball/change combo. The more he threw it, the more effective it was in generating whiffs. Combine that with the fact that he was even better as a starter than a reliever last year, and I’m seeing big things on the horizon for Wood.

Also, keep in mind that Wood received the second-worst run support in the majors last year, at just 2.75 runs per game. Wins are obviously difficult to predict, but I think it’s a safe bet for Wood to see a solid uptick in that department.

3. Jay Bruce finishes outside the top 36 outfielders for the second straight year.

Bruce seems to be a pretty trendy sleeper this year, and why not? The guy did hit at least 30 homers a year from 2011 through 2013, so it’s by no means unreasonable to expect him to bounce back from his putrid 2014.

I think Bruce will rebound a bit, but his plate discipline has been trending in the wrong way for years, as has his ground-ball to fly-ball ratio. He’s still only 28 years old, so it’s entirely possible that he makes the necessary adjustments to become a valuable fantasy contributor once again. Still, I’m staying far away from the nearly universally owned Bruce this year.

4. George Springer is a top-ten outfielder.

The 25-year-old Springer launched 20 homers in just 345 major-league plate appearances last year. Projecting 30+ homers for 2015 isn’t unreasonable at all, and I think we’ll see him steal 20+ bases as well.

Furthermore, his .294 BABIP in the majors last season was the lowest of his career at any level, and it wasn’t even close. Even if he doesn’t improve his K-rate (which I think he will), he should easily surpass the rather ugly .231 AVG he posted last year. Add it all up, and you’ve got yourself a top-ten outfielder.

5. All three of the Marlins’ regular outfielders are top-24 fantasy commodities at the position.

Barring a major injury, Giancarlo Stanton is obviously a shoe-in here. Christian Yelich’s five-category contributions will add up to a No. 2 OF option in standard 12-team leagues. Marcell Ozuna will hit 25+ bombs, with a batting average just barely good enough to slide into the top 24 fantasy outfielders.

6. Nolan Arenado is the top third baseman in fantasy.

I stopped just short of making this prediction two weeks ago, but now is the time to be bold. Thusly, I am pushing all my chips in, and declaring Arenado the No. 1 fantasy 3B in 2015. The 23-year-old improved in just about every way possible last year, finishing the season as the No. 11 player at the hot corner, despite missing more than 50 games due to injury.

Look for a healthy Arenado to hit 25+ homers with an average hovering around .300, allowing him to edge out the likes of Adrian Beltre, Anthony Rendon, Josh Donaldson and Todd Frazier. After all, not only is Arenado incredibly talented, he also gets to play half his games at Coors Field.

7. Devin Mesoraco will be the first catcher to hit 30+ home runs since Javy Lopez in 2003.

I tried this with Brian McCann last year, and he disappointed me by coming up seven homers short. It’s pretty amazing that we’re going on 12 years since a catcher last launched 30 bombs. Still, the combination of regular days off — and the physical wear and tear associated with playing the position — has kept catchers shy of the 30-homer mark for more than a decade.

Last year, seven catcher-eligible players exceeded the 20-homer mark, including the 26-year-old Mesoraco. The Reds’ backstop has always had the potential to be an excellent hitter, but last year was the first time he was able to translate tools into production. Jeff Sullivan wrote a great article about Mesoraco’s breakout a couple months ago, and I fully agree that Mesoraco is for real.

Look out, 30-homer mark. Devin Mesoraco’s comin’ for ya.

8. For the fourth consecutive year, Juan Nicasio will make 10+ starts while maintaining an ERA over 5.00.

Nicasio has already accomplished quite a feat, stumbling his way through three straight seasons in which he started more than ten games in the majors, despite not finishing any of those three seasons with an ERA below 5.14. That kind of ineptitude doesn’t usually keep getting so many chances.

This year, the 28-year-old should theoretically get some help from his move from the Rockies to the Dodgers, where it appears he will serve a swingman role, similar to his spot on the Colorado staff last year. With Brandon Beachy and Hyun-Jin Ryu both projected to start the season on the disabled list, Nicasio should clear the ten-start mark again this year, but what about that ERA? Can he possibly keep his ERA north of 5.00 for a fourth straight year?

I say yes. Oddly enough, Nicasio has arguably been worse away from Coors Field in his career than he was in his home games. His road ERA of 4.81 is just a touch below his home ERA of 5.24, and his career road wOBA sits at .358, compared to a .343 mark at Coors. His strikeout rate is also somehow worse outside of Colorado, where he has a 16.1% K-rate, compared to his 19.1% mark at home.

I’ve now spent way more column space writing about Nicasio than I have about any of my other predictions, but this magnitude of terrible is special. Nicasio is so consistently bad that he is a wonderfully unique part of baseball all his own. Much like his new teammate Clayton Kershaw racks up the strikeouts like none other, Nicasio has completely mastered the art of giving up homers.

Last year, Nicasio ‘led’ all of baseball in home-run rate, with a rather amazing 1.83 HR/9 mark. He gave up 19 homers in only 93.2 innings! That is incredible.

Juan Nicasio is a national treasure.

9. No player will steal more than 50 bases.

This one’s pretty darn bold, seeing as three players — Dee Gordon, Jose Altuve and Billy Hamilton — crossed the 50-steal threshold last year, and Ben Revere came up just one shy of joining them. I distrust the on-base abilities of Gordon, Hamilton and Revere enough to at least envision a world in which none of them swipes more than 50 bags this year.

Altuve is awesome, and one of my favorite players in baseball. However, seeing as he had stolen 68 bases in 2012 and 2013 combined, I’ll bet he doesn’t steal more than 50 this year either.

Steamer and ZiPS are both laughing in my face on this one, projecting Hamilton for 65 and 63 steals, respectively. However, our Depth Charts projections have him swiping 53, so I’d say I’ve got a chance.

10. Johan Santana gets back to the majors and earns 1 WAR without hitting 90 mph even one time all year.

I also used this as my No. 10 prediction last year. I will continue using it until the day I die, or whenever Santana stops making comeback attempts, whichever happens first. He hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2012, due to near-constant injuries, but he’s actually still just 36 years old.

One of these years, his shoulder will hold up long enough for him to get back to the bigs, and I’m going to boldly predict the glorious return of the change-up master every year until it happens.