Scheming For Relief: Middle Reliever Tiers, Last 30 Days
Lots of folks here at RotoGraphs have been updating their positional tiers in the past week or more, so I figured to piggyback on their efforts and create reliever tiers over the past 30 days. In an effort to chop this list down, I focused on arms with at least ten appearances, one hold, an ERA less than 5.00 and a K-BB% at 10% or better. Also, the relievers appear in tiers and are listed in no particular order within their respective tier.
Tier One: Double India Pale Ales
Dellin Betances | Yankees
Evan Scribner | Athletics
Josh Fields | Astros
Joe Smith | Angels
In my book, the Double India Pale Ales take the cake. And so do these four relief arms. Despite the lack of holds, Fields’ K-BB% and ratios have been elite. He’d be a useful addition to just about any pitching staff in any format, if you can roster him. Betances and Scribner have had a fantastic month, contributing across the board for their real and fake teams. Joe Smith is racking up the holds, but is trailing the other three in strikeouts and ratios. All are great options in hold or solds (holds + saves) leagues, but the first three definitely have traditional 5×5 mixed league value.
Tier Two: India Pale Ales
Pat Neshek | Astros
Zach McAllister | Indians
Sergio Romo | Giants
A.J. Ramos | Marlins
Carson Smith | Mariners
India Pale Ales are just a step below the DIPA, but still get the job done with little left to be desired. Outside of holds/solds leagues, A.J. Ramos is one of the arms from this tier that I’d consider rostering in mixers thanks to the steady contributions across the board with the saves upside. Zach McAllister followed by Carson Smith would be my second and third choices from the IPA tier to add in my mixed leagues to help pad the strikeout category and to maintain ratios.
Tier Three: Saisons
Wade Davis | Royals
Steve Geltz | Rays
Yimi Garcia | Dodgers
Tony Sipp | Astros
Roberto Osuna | Blue Jays
Darren O’Day | Orioles
Blaine Hardy | Tigers
Sam Dyson | Marlins
Chris Hatcher | Dodgers
Ryan Madson | Royals
Saisons. They get the job done, but just a little bit differently. They each seem to have a fairly safe floor along with a decent ceiling. But each of these guys come with some risk, whether it be with the ratios or in the K-BB%.
Tier Four: Sours
Alex Torres | Mets
Jim Johnson | Braves
Ken Giles | Phillies
Zac Rosscup | Cubs
Justin Wilson Yankees
Brandon Gomes | Rays
Kevin Siegrist | Cardinals
Tony Watson | Pirates
Arquimedes Caminero | Pirates
Kelvin Herrera | Royals
Chad Qualls | Astros
Will Harris | Astros
Lots of saves upside in this tier with the likes of Jim Johnson and Chad Qualls. Ken Giles was a popular name prior to the season with the idea that he would be the next man for ninth-inning duties in Philadelphia should Jonathan Papelbon be dealt on or before the trade deadline. Giles is still experiencing a pretty significant dip in velocity on his fastball and slider compared to last season’s readings, which could be the reason he’s inducing fewer swinging strikes and isn’t striking out as many batters.
Tier Five: Yellow Fizzy Beers
Junichi Tazawa | Red Sox
Seth Maness | Cardinals
Fernando Salas | Angels
Jared Hughes | Pirates
Erik Goeddel | Mets
Jeremy Jeffress | Brewers
Luis Avilan | Braves
Matt Belisle | Cardinals
Kevin Quackenbush | Padres
Justin De Fratus | Phillies
Rob Scahill | Pirates
Alex Wilson | Tigers
Chasen Shreve | Yankees
Brandon Maurer | Padres
Tony Cingrani | Reds
Angel Nesbitt | Tigers
Scott Oberg | Rockies
Keone Kela | Rangers
Desperate times call for desperate measures. Okay, that might not be the right analogy, but I’m guessing you’ll pick up what I’m putting down. Anyway, streaming guys in the tiers above are always fun when a team’s closer has pitched a few consecutive days. Kevin Jepson, Pedro Strop and Blaine Boyer each failed to make the list for one reason or another based on the parameters I arbitrarily set during my research, but they each deserve to be mentioned here.
The chart I used to identify my top relievers over the past 30 days can do downloaded here, or you can just see it here:
In addition to contributing to the RotoGraphs blog, you can find Alan at his own site, TheFantasyFix.com and follow his nonsense on Twitter @TheFantasyFix.
If I’m looking to pick up one or two of these guys, how much weight should I put on the tier ranking in the above, as far as rest-of-season value? This was for the past 30 days, but how much predictive value do you think it has? Anyone in those first two tiers who you’d be particularly skeptical on for ROS, or particularly bullish on? Thanks
To clarify, my question is really how you would rank guys like Scribner, Fields, Carson Smith, McAllister for ROS, and would you put them above guys in tiers below them? Or would ROS tiers look totally different? (Betances and Ramos and the like are gone in every league, so I leave those types of guys out)
Good question. Relievers tend to be pretty volatile. And there a lot of them to choose from, so you can add and drop with little reservation. These are the top 49 over the past 30 days according to the parameters I set. Depending on your needs and the makeup of your current pitching staff, I’d feel comfortable adding most of these guys.
With that said, if i’m in a non-holds/solds league, I’d be looking for guys with the highest K-BB%, whose ERA & FIP are pretty well aligned and have some saves upside. Betances, Ramos, Smith may have the most saves upside in the top two tiers, so that’s where I’d start. I actually own Fields/Scribner/McAllister a few times, so that really helps me in ratios, Ks and the occasional scab win. I stream a bunch of these guys regularly in leagues without transaction limits. Hope this helps.
If I’m understanding correctly, this is a tiered-ranking of recent performance of non-closers; based on a league that uses W, SV, HLD, K%, BB%, K-BB%, ERA, and FIP?
Those are simply some of the statistics that I choose to use when evaluating relievers. And yes, it helped me in creating those tiers.
Would is make sense to add saves and holds together for guys who are not the official closer? Like Davis?
Wade Davis has a 0.79 ERA since the start of 2014 (91 innings). Not sure I see much risk, especially in comparison to the Top Tier guys. ERA since 2014:
Davis – 0.79
Betances – 1.12
Smith – 1.93
Scribner – 3.34
Fields – 3.94
It is a bit ridiculous to have any metrics that claim Davis isn’t among the top tier, let alone top 2 tiers, of middle relievers in the game.
How do you stream relief pitchers? We know for certain when a starting pitcher is going to appear in a game, but not relievers. How do you do it?
Fields got injured yesterday on a comebacker to the mound. X-rays were negative and he’s not heading to the DL, but he’ll be out a couple days.
Had high hopes for Aaron Barrett but he’s been fairly average thus far. Is he droppable with Casey Janssen back?
For grins, can we occasionally get a ranking like this that would include ALL relievers and pay no mind to saves or holds? Basically just guys on a per-inning basis regardless of what credit they might get towards the decision?
Good idea. I know Brett does a closer column on Wednesdays, I’ll see if I can’t connect with him to get this done.
oh man, that would be awesome. also a huge ipa fan myself.
That Wade Davis guy..
“come with some risk, whether it be with the ratios or in the K-BB%.”
I demand some fact checking!
(or even a cursory knowledge of baseball since 2013)
Guess I deserve this for making a blanket statement. Should read “some guys, with the exception of Wade Davis, come with risk…”
So curious… why is he in the third tier then?
There are only nine non-closing relievers in tiers above him here, so It’s not all that bad. Of the statistics I used to measure, he only finished in the top ten in ERA, so I’m guessing that’s why I slid him a bit compared to the others.
Sorry, but seeing Davis in the THIRD tier undermines the entire rest of the article. Ridiculous.
Don’t be sorry, Jim. This is just over the past 30 days and I probably should’ve taken into consideration that he spent time closing with Holland out, resulting in lack of holds.
you’re underrating Jeffress here. he’s been unhittable in the past few weeks touching 98 mph. only thing he lacks is opportunity for a save or a hold
Will give him another look. He’s still in the top 50, so I’m not sure I underrate him a lot, maybe just compared to the others on this list. Think the lack of holds and the imperfect ratios slid him down a bit. Appreciate the heads-up.
Number one betances. The closer on his team? Not on this page. Hmmm.
There are no closers on this list.
Oh. Middle relievers. Middle in the title now. Wasn’t was it?
Where would Shawn Tolleson rank? Seems he and Ramos are in similar situations where they are tenously holding onto Closing jobs until they get more chances under their belts. Either way both guys are off to really nice starts this year.
Also, Neshek have any shot at closing in Houston or is his delivery lock him into a set up role? He has continued his dominance from last year, but is he still stuck behind Qualls as the next-in-line?
Good point. Should have either included both or left both out since he and Tolleson are in similar situations. Maybe I should take this opportunity to pull out Ramos and Wade Davis, ha!
On Neshek, he has been nails, but mostly used in the eighth. At the bullpen report, we still have him behind Qualls for saves.
Tony Watson is wayyyyyy too low it’s not even funny
Not really. He’s not even getting a K per inning.
I really hope you keep doing this throughout the year. Very useful stuff.
When will the era of IPAs end? Sours are hugely underrated. 😉
For me, I think it’s partially cost-related? Easier to experiment with a 10.99 6r or 20 oz bomber of ipa or double ipa respectively. Sours tend to have a hefty price tag… or the really good ones at least?
Juan Nicasio should be added to the list. Seems to have turned himself around and no one knows about it yet.
Any chance of adding vFA to that chart for those of us who refuse to let go of scouting?
Signed, Arquimedes Caminero owner.