Same Old Iannetta

I was looking over Ben Duronio’s 10 Bold Predictions the other day and while I may disagree with some of his calls, nothing inspired me to put pen to paper (fingers to keyboard?) quite like his last prediction that Chris Iannetta “puts it all together” this year.  I’m sure there are a number of my predictions that people will criticize and I’m happy to see it, but to me, Iannetta has been one of the most overvalued catchers in fantasy over the years and I don’t see a move to the Angels being the answer for him.

In looking at his historical ADP on Mock Draft Central, the love for Iannetta has thankfully diminished over the years.  Last season he was the 21st catcher off the board with an ADP of 290.81.  In 2010, he was 12th with a 171.42.  And the year before that he was 8th with a 135.65 ADP.  This season, his ADP may be 263.64, but he is now the 24th catcher off the board.  So while the catching position may be getting a little more respect/attention in recent drafts, Iannetta continues to fall out of favor.

And who can really blame people?  The last three seasons have seen a diminished batting average, a reduced ISO, back problems, sketchy playing time and a mid-season trip to the minors.  If you’re playing in a standard 5×5 league, he’s barely worth a thought.  If you use OBP instead of batting average, then perhaps he garners a bit more attention.  However, that’s where the move to the Angels could hurt him the most.

A career .357 OBP has always been Iannetta’s saving grace…or atleast the key statistic one uses when defending his worth.  However, that OBP is over-inflated by his 13.9% walk rate, and that walk rate has been inflated due to Iannetta’s spot in the batting order — 8th — right before the pitcher.  In 2011, there were 515 walks issued to hitters in the 8th spot of the order in the NL. That ranks 5th behind 1st, 3rd, 4th and 5th in the order.  But those 515 walks issued to 8-hole guys represent 8.6% of their plate appearances. That puts them third, behind 4th spot (10.5%) and 3rd spot (9.7%).  So on a per plate appearance basis, the only guys out-walking the 8th spot hitter are the two that should be your best (thanks to reader Jason for the assist here).

The projected batting order, according to RotoChamp, shows Iannetta remaining in the 8-hole with his new team.  Scheduled to bat ninth is outfielder Peter Bourjos whose .271/.327/.438 may not be the sexiest in baseball, but it’s certainly better than the .156/.174/.210 of the Rockies pitchers.  It would seem that AL pitchers would be less inclined to pitch around Iannetta and his career .235 average than NL pitchers were over the last few years.  So if a lack of opportunity for Iannetta in the batting order has been your sticking point, it doesn’t look like it’s getting any better in Los Angeles.

Then, of course, there’s the home ballpark change.  Angel Stadium has been considered a pitcher-friendly park, and is most definitely worse for hitters than Coors Field.  So take Iannetta’s home/road splits — home (.262/.377/.492 with 37 homers in 233 games); road (.208/.338/.369 with 26 homers in 225 games) — and you’ll see that those counting stats are more than likely about to head south yet again.  Take that and add it to potentially declining rate stats and you’ve got a catcher that no one wants in fantasy…or reality, for that matter.

Angels fans will love him because his overall production will be a huge upgrade from that of Jeff Mathis.  But hey…my overall production would probably be a huge upgrade from that of Mathis and I can’t help but continually step in the bucket whenever I take a few swings.  The bottom line is that even as a late round flier in your draft, you’re still not going to get a great value in Iannetta.  He’s not getting a better opportunity in L.A. than he was in Colorado, his skills seem to be on the downslide, and if his defense isn’t up to par, it might not take Mike Scioscia very long to finally give Hank Conger a legitimate shot.