Rylan Edwards’ 10 Bold Predictions Revisited – Why, God Why? Edition

Truth be told, I’ve been dreading this piece for months. Before joining Rotographs this season, I always enjoyed this series as much for revisiting the predictions at the end of the year as reading them in the first place. But of the 30 or so pieces I’ve written this year, Bold Predictions is easily my worst. Not only did I miss but I missed spectacularly. I missed in part because I went too bold but most painfully because I was sloppy. Want to know what I mean by sloppy? I predicted Greg Bird would out-perform Mark Teixeira. Seven weeks after he was lost for the season. I also got too specific, ambitiously adding milestones when broad declarations would have more than sufficed. I’m not going to enjoy what follows but without further ado, let’s Bring the Pain.

 

1. Aaron Hicks finishes as a top 24 outfielder

Oh, boy. No warm-up, huh? In my defense, Aaron Hicks was a popular sleeper entering the season and mentioned twice more in our staff’s Bold Prediction series, proving that even the data-inclined are susceptible to group think. But top 24? Madness! In the end, Hicks finished the season as the 154^th ranked outfielder and 799^th player overall. At least he cracked the top 800.

2016 was an unmitigated disaster for Hicks. His 64 wRC+ ranked 18^th on his team and he was even worse against lefties, slashing .161/.213/.271. Given a career 125 wRC+ against lefties and the improvement he showed in 2015, I figured his baseline was Chris Young. Well you’d have been much better off drafting Chris Young who performed at Hicks’ 90^th percentile projection. No joke.

0 for 1 – if it makes you feel any better, I followed my own advice and drafted Hicks in 3 leagues.

 

2. The three most valuable position players on the Yankees at year’s end will all start the year as backups or minor leaguers

Oy, this one. Specifically, I identified Hicks, Bird, and Gary Sanchez as those three players. According to ESPN’s Player Rater, the top 3 Yankees were Didi Gregorius, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Starlin Castro. I thought I might have a chance here with Sanchez but both Brett Gardner and Castro beat him out. So not only was I wrong, I was sloppy, having forgotten Bird was lost for the season when I wrote this. Plus, I failed to diversify, doubling down on Aaron Hicks. Fool me once…

But the premise of this prediction was two-fold, the first being that the Yankees were old and would be sellers at the deadline. Sure enough Beltran was traded, Teixeira limped towards retirement, and Brian McCann continued his decline into DH-dom, opening the door for Hicks, Bird, and Sanchez, respectively. But Hicks bombed and Bird wouldn’t suit up all because he had a “torn labrum.”

I should take some solace in Sanchez’ breakout and that he outperformed McCann, which itself would have been a bold prediction. Though to be fair, I could hardly have predicted this. He’s undoubtedly one of the three most valuable position players on the Yankees moving forward so do I get a third of a point? No? Sorry for asking.

0 for 2 – welp, can’t get any worse. Right?

 

3. Chris Bassit finishes the year as the best starting pitcher on the A’s

Wrong. Again, this was rooted in the idea that better players would under-perform or be traded rather than the subject of my prediction breaking out. Sonny Gray and Rich Hill certainly did their part opening the door for Bassit but as it would turn out, Bassit wouldn’t make it to May. He threw his last pitch on April 28^th in Detroit, joining the ranks of Oakland’s ill-fated staff on the disabled list. I waffled between picking Sean Manaea or Kendall Graveman over Bassit, both of whom would have made far better choices. You’d think being wrong due to unforeseen injury would feel better but it doesn’t.

0 for 3 – I can’t even blame Hicks for this one.

 

4. Nick Hundley finishes as a top 5 catcher

Catcher was a disaster this season. Nick Hundley wasn’t. But he wasn’t close to top 5, amassing just 317 plate appearances. They were decently productive plate appearances resulting in 10 homers and a .759 OPS but a couple early DL stints interrupted a torrid start that he was never able to resume.

0 for 4 – if the season lasted two months, I’d be 1 for 4.

 

5. Chris Heston is a fixture on mixed-league rosters

Dear God. Really? I fell for his first half ground ball rate in 2015 and the state of Matt Cain’s disrepair. Not only did Heston pitch just five terrible innings for the Giants, he struggled at AAA, posting a 4.54 ERA and 5.03 FIP. He gave up homers at the second highest frequency of his professional career, walked 3.54 per 9, and struck out hardly anyone.

In previewing the Giants’ rotation in our Playing Time Battles series, I posited that there was no way Cueto, Cain, and Peavy would combine to make 90 starts and as such, Heston was the logical fill-in. Well, they combined to make 70 but Heston was not the beneficiary. The leftover starts went to Matt Moore and Albert Suarez. Even Ty Blach’s two were two more than Heston’s.

0 for 5 – Halfway through and possibly my worst yet. That means we’ve hit rock bottom, right?

 

6. Hunter Strickland closes out 20 games

I wasn’t alone in my love for Strickland as a potential closer. But I was alone in placing a number on his saves total. Remember when I said I got too specific? Here’s an example where I would have benefited from being a little more vague. But where’s the fun in that, right? Turns out I was right in calling Santiago Casilla’s demise. Bochy even gave Strickland a shot before he did Sergio Romo, which was a concern I brought up in March. In the end, Strickland just didn’t pitch well this season and certainly not well enough to keep the gig once given the opportunity.

0 for 6 – I may have missed (by 17 saves) but I feel better about this one than any of the others so far.

 

7. The AL West features four Top 10 fantasy second basemen

Altuve and Cano? Yup. Odor and Coghlan? Nope. Despite hitting 33 home runs, Odor finished just outside the Top 10 second basemen but Coghlan wasn’t close. And of course, he was terrible for the A’s and much better for the Cubs.

A full season of his production with the Cubs would have been good enough to put Coghlan in the top 10, at least by wRC+ but you can’t win them all. Or any of them in my case.

0 for 7 – he was traded out of the AL West right around game 60. Thanks, Chris.

 

8. 2016 is the year fantasy owners realize they love K-Pop

So again, I got too specific. It would have been enough to predict that 3 powerful rookies coming over from the KBO, Byung-Ho Park, Hyun Soo Kim, and Dae-Ho Lee would all provide a fantasy impact. I would have been wrong but it would have been bold enough. But no, I had to go the extra mile and say they would combine to hit 65 homers. And not only that, I predicted how many each individually would hit! At least I was right about Dae-Ho Lee. I said he’d go yard 11 times. He hit 14, one for every 20 pounds. That should count for something. But it doesn’t.

0 for 8 – the end is in sight!

 

9. Jeff Samardzija’s resurgence will prove grossly exaggerated

WHAT??? Did I actually get one right? Well, the headline is a tad nebulous so let’s see if I got more specific. In March, I wrote:

“Between the drop in his groundball rate, whiff rate, strikeouts, and command, Shark seems to have lost something. I’m not so sure that a switch to the NL and AT&T in particular will remedy all or even most of that. Will he be roster-worthy? Sure, why not? But will he regain the #2 or even #3 starter status he so brilliantly earned in 2014? No.”

Well, according to ESPN’s Player Rater, Shark was the 38^th ranked starter which, at least in 12 teamers, clearly makes him a good #4 but certainly not a #2 or even a #3. Not exactly the boldest prediction but as my memory serves, Shark was a popular sleeper due to the comeback narrative. I’ll take it!

Samardzija marginally rebounded by most measures. His K-BB% ticked up ever so slightly but still sat well below his 2014 breakout. The same can be said of his groundball rate. Alarmingly, his SwStr% continued its fall, sitting at 9.2%, the lowest of his career since becoming a starter. I didn’t own him in any leagues this season and doubt I’ll be targeting him next year, though I am interested to see where he goes in drafts.

1 for 9 – I’m batting .333 on Giants-related predictions.

 

10. Liam Hendriks will be an elite closer heading into 2017

Did I say Liam Hendriks? I totally meant Edwin Diaz. So, no this one didn’t work out.

1 for 10 – sadly, this is better than I thought I’d do when I started writing.

 

So I got a little carried away with my predictions. I had fun writing them even if I didn’t have the least bit of fun reading them. Here’s to hoping the rest of the Rotographs staff fared better.