Reviewing Brad Johnson’s 2016 Bold Predictions

Prior to the season, RotoGraphs writers submitted lists of 10 bold predictions. We’re kind of known for them. After playing it semi-safe in 2015, I decided to go especially bold in 2016. The results, as you might expect, are a bunch of big whiffs. Imagine Steven Moya’s violent swing. When he connects, he’s in good shape. He’ll often miss the ball by multiple feet.

Before we get into reviewing my 2016 picks, I’d like to call one back from last year. Behold:

From 2015: Mark Trumbo will lead the NL in home runs

I got the year and league wrong, but I’m giving myself partial credit for having ever predicted a home run title for Trumbo. The power barrage was well-timed. Instead of earning a one-year contract similar to Pedro Alvarez, he’ll find some schmuck to offer multiple years at over $10 million a season. More important to us, he’ll be vastly overrated in 2017 drafts.

Now, let’s check out the ones that count…

1. Socrates Brito will be a top 60 outfielder

Ah, this really started off on the right foot. I said he’d post a good average with 10 home runs and 20 stolen bases. “A poor man’s Christian Yelich” is an actual quote of me. Injuries sapped Brito’s speed and a high whiff rate ruined any chance for batting average or regular reps.

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2. Tony Zych will save 10 games

In many ways, I got this one right. Steve Cishek lost his job despite pitching well for 95 percent of the season. Zych pitched well too. When healthy. Unfortunately, he was sidelined for much of the year including when Cishek fumbled the ninth. Had he been available, I have no doubt Zych would have had the first shot over Edwin Diaz. Alas,

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3. Nomar Mazara will be the most productive rookie eligible player

There was little reason to expect an early season promotion for Mazara. Self congratulations to me for getting that part right. Twice, I bet against Corey Seager. Twice, he made me look silly. Mazara produced about one-seventh the value of Seager. He ranked 40th on a list of rookie hitters sorted by offensive runs. It’s exciting that Mazara popped 20 home runs as a young 21-year-old, but he fell very short of this prediction.

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4. Jesse Winker and Phillip Ervin give Reds fans hope

Well, I thought Scott Schebler, Adam Duvall, Yorman Rodriguez, and Jose Peraza would be such a hot mess that the Reds would take some kind of look at Winker and Ervin. Instead, both prospects scarcely made a sound in the minors while posting merely fine seasons. While I still believe Schebler and Duvall aren’t starting quality outfielders, it’s possible that they stick. Duvall in particular somehow saved 10 runs on defense en route to a 2.8 WAR season. I’m a full believer in Peraza now, although I don’t think his immediate future includes much outfield work.

I could probably repeat this prediction next year, and it would still be bold.

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*manager demotes Johnson in the lineup

5. Michael Brantley will be a top 10 outfielder

Brantley barely managed 10 plate appearances let alone a top 10 ranking. Next.

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6. Victor Martinez hits 25 home runs

Thank god for Victor Martinez. Were it not for the Tigers designated hitter, I would have been in danger of a shutout. Martinez’s skill set is clearly in a decline mode – probably because his lower body is constantly injured. He supplied 27 home runs in 610 plate appearances to go with a solid .289/.351/.476 line. He also posted a career worst 14.8 percent strikeout rate.

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7. Dallas Keuchel proves he’s Cliff Lee 2.0

Cliff Lee pitched to a 3.65 ERA with 7.97 K/9 and 1.33 BB/9 in his most recent season. Keuchel wasn’t too far off the mark, tossing a 4.55 ERA, 7.71 K/9, and 2.57 BB/9. I’m claiming credit. 2-for-7, right? Right?

Umpires stole the cheater part of the strike zone away from Keuchel, and his command deserted him early in the season. I still consider him an interesting rebound candidate if and when we get good news about his injured shoulder.

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8. Mike Trout will steal 30 bases

Trout entered the season saying he would steal more bases. And, after locking down his 30th steal on the final day of the season (whew), he made me look good for believing him. Of course, stolen bases are almost an afterthought when you hit .315/.441/.550 with 29 home runs, 123 runs, and 100 RBI. Imagine if actual good hitters were ahead of or behind him in the lineup. Actually, let’s get proactive. FREE MIKE TROUT!

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9. Maikel Franco will channel Edwin Encarnacion

If Franco had managed to improve his selectivity at the plate, then he might have made good on this prediction. Instead, he repeated his 2015 campaign over a full season. The young third baseman did bash 25 home runs. I’m not giving up on this prediction, it just wasn’t right in 2016. Encarnacion didn’t click until he was 29. Franco just turned 24 in August.

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10. Jimmy Rollins outperforms Corey Seager

Math lesson: 7.5 divided by negative 0.1 equals negative 75. By WAR, Seager was 75 times better than Rollins. I thought U.S. Cellular Field might give Rollins a dead cat bounce. Something like 20-25 home runs to go with a .225/.300/.400 line and 15 steals.

In retrospect, this pick wasn’t just bold, it was the boldest. Even if Rollins hit my prediction (which was probably his 125th percentile projection), he still needed help from Seager. Instead, Seager is a legitimate choice for the NL MVP. Rollins hasn’t played since the White Sox dumped him in early June.

Next year, I shall boldly predict that Rollins plays in the majors.

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