Rule 5 Draft: Who To Watch

The Major League Rule 5 draft kicked off at noon today and finished a few minutes later. In typical rapid fire, 14 unprotected players were selected to go join new teams. Inevitably, some of them will be traded before the start of the season. Others will be returned to their original club.

The beauty of the Rule 5 draft is that the worst teams pick first. These are the clubs that are 1. most likely to keep their selection and 2. most likely to play their picks. You don’t find Odubel Herrera or Brad Keller by hiding them under the dankest corner of the bench. In fact, the 11 teams with the best record in 2018 made a total of zero selections. This likely reflects their intentions to continue competing at a high level – they don’t have the flexibility to nurse the types of players usually selected in the Rule 5 draft.

That said, a few of the 14 selected players could have a fantasy impact in 2019.

The Picks

The Orioles telegraphed their first choice a couple days ago. Sure enough, they selected Richie Martin, a former Oakland first round draft pick. Martin missed huge chunks of the 2016 and 2017 campaigns before rebounding at Double-A last season with a .300/.368/.439 batting line in 509 plate appearances. He didn’t show much power (six home runs) but did steal 25 bases.

Although his 8.6 percent walk rate and 16.9 percent strikeout rate hint at solid plate discipline, these are offset by a 11.5 percent swing strike rate, 357 BABIP, and near-60 percent ground ball rate. I suspect he’ll be fiendishly overmatched in the majors. He’s also the best bet of the four position players selected to actually receive regular action. The Orioles roster remains a hot mess.

At fourth overall, Riley Ferrell offers the most obvious fantasy upside among the pitchers in the draft – mostly because of the team that draft him. He works in the mid-90s with a highly regarded fastball-slider combo. The Marlins bullpen was a disaster last season. Ferrell, despite shaky command, should stick. After mostly positive mixed results in 23.2 Double-A innings, he struggled upon promotion to Triple-A. In 28 innings, he posted a 6.75 ERA with 10.93 K/9 and 5.14 BB/9. The high strikeout and walk rates are characteristic for him. If he’s able to turn a corner, he could nab a few saves. I mean, it’s the Marlins.

Travis Bergen, selected eighth overall by the Giants, was somebody I picked in my Rule 5 Draft and Follow contest. After missing nearly all of the previous three seasons, the southpaw cruised to big numbers in High- and Double-A with the Blue Jays. Unlike the typical wild Rule 5 pitcher, he posted healthy strikeout (13.29 K/9 and 10.85 K/9) and walk rates (2.57 BB/9 and 2.27 BB/9) in his split season. His 35 inning Triple-A stint included a 0.50 ERA. He might be a reasonably decent lefty-specialist with holds potential.

The Phillies landed my personal top target in the draft, 25-year-old utility man Drew Jackson. This is (temporarily) bad news for fantasy owners. The Phillies are unlikely to have a role for a Rule 5 pick in their quest to contend. He’ll either need to prove himself during Spring Training, get traded, or return to the Dodgers. In 410 Double-A plate appearances, Jackson hit .251/.356/.447 with 15 home runs, 22 stolen bases, and tolerable plate discipline. He’s an extreme pull hitter from the right side of the plate. His contact is balanced between grounders and flies – a profile that usually leads to a low BABIP. Even without batting average, he has decent four category potential in very deep formats.

UPDATE: Jackson has been traded to the Orioles for international bonus money. This is a HUGE upgrade for prospective Jackson owners.

The other picks mostly fall under the “pitchers with upside” banner. Sam McWilliams, who went second off the board to the Royals, is a 6’7” bean pole who could see his stuff play up as a reliever. Third overall Jordan Romano (White Sox) will also probably be tried as a reliever. Ditto Chris Ellis (7th, Rangers – UPDATE: traded to Royals), Elvis Luciano (9th, Blue Jays), Kyle Dowdy (10th, Mets), and Nick Green (12th, DBacks). Reed Garrett (5th, Tigers) and Brandon Brennan (13th, Mariners) already work in relief. Shockingly, Bergen was the only southpaw selected in the draft. The Rule 5 has a long history as a LOOGY-mill.

Other players selected include utility man Connor Joe (6th, Reds) who was surprisingly announced as a catcher. He posted a very strong season at the plate between Double- and Triple-A for the Dodgers. He’ll probably stick if he’s at all passable as a backstop. Drew Ferguson (14th, Giants) was the only selection made in the second round. He posted a relatively empty .305/.436/.429 batting line in 292 Triple-A plate appearances with the Astros.

Snubs

Max Schrock, Kean Wong, and Raynel Espinal all looked like easy locks to be selected this season. Teams evidently were unimpressed with Schrock’s late of defensive home. Wong also suffers from having questionable ability on the left side of the infield. Espinal, a reliever who posted huge numbers with the Triple-A Yankees affiliate, seems like a missed opportunity. I thought he could fit into the late innings for a club like the Marlins.