RotoGraphs’ Small-Sample Normalization Services (SSNS)

By clicking this link, you (“Reader”) have opted into an agreement (“Contract”) with FanGraphs, Inc. (“Handsome Author”). Handsome Author agrees to provide Small-Sample Normalization Services (SSNS) to Reader in the following post (“Post”). In return, Reader, presumably interested in Handsome Author’s analysis or merely intrigued by Handsome Author’s curious Post title, shall appreciate said services no matter what.

SSNS seeks to normalize good and bad performances witnessed in the first two weeks of the 2017 Major League Baseball (MLB) season. Handsome Author has noted previously, here and elsewhere, that small-sample booms and busts in March and April would go largely unnoticed in other months in which the sport of professional baseball is played, such as May, June, July, August, or even September.

Accordingly, SSNS looks at a player’s past performance as a benchmark for current performance using FanGraphs’ (and not Handsome Author’s) very nifty player graphs. It answers the question, “Has a player done this before?” Perhaps, Reader. Perhaps. But perhaps not. SSNS then assigns an Excitement-to-Panic Level (EPL) on a 5-point scale from 1 to 5 as well as an Adjusted Excitement-to-Panic Level (AEPL) once Handsome Author has properly assessed the historical significance of the player’s performance — within the context of the player’s self.

In this inaugural edition, Handsome Author will use SSNS to evaluate five hitters primarily in terms of their strikeouts (K%) and walks (BB%) through their first X number of games, with some other statistics incorporated as well. SSNS is not the be-all, end-all of player performance, but knowing we’ve seen a player “do this before,” as they say, is enough to calm one’s turbulent heart and mind.

Name: Jonathan Villar, MIL 2B
Games played: 9
K%: 37.5%
BB%: 2.5%
EPL: 5
Assessment: Villar walked a meager 2.5% of the time for a 14-game stretch last June and, for most of that same month, struck out more than 30% of the time. He has also struck out five times more often than he walked a couple of times last year. He just never struck out 15 times more. It’s ugly, but it’s not unprecedented. However, a disturbing trend: his zone contact rate (Z-Contact%) has seemingly settled at a new, lower equilibrium starting around mid-August 2016.

Handsome Author — and surely Reader, too — would rather see the red and blue lines climbing and the yellow line falling. However, the fantasy baseball community has seen worse (somehow) from Villar in previous years, and analysts, including Handsome Author, still liked Villar in previous years despite his obvious shortcomings. Meanwhile, it’s hard to fault him for a .167 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) — although, admittedly, it’s weird to see three times as many home runs as stolen bases.

AEPL: 3

* * *

Name: Trevor Story, COL SS
Games played: 10
K%: 35.1%
BB%: 16.2%
HR: 0
EPL: 4
Assessment: Story hit seven home runs in his first six games last year. He how has zero through his first 10, all while piling on strikeouts. His longest single-season homerless stretch last year was 11 games in May; Handsome Author specifies “single-season” to Reader because he technically finished last year with six homerless games as well. It should assure Reader that Story has definitely struck out this much before — his highest rolling 10-game strikeout rate topped out at 45.5%. But the isolated power (ISO)?

…Woof. This is the risk the Reader runs with hitters with short track records.

AEPL: 3

* * *

Name: Steven Souza Jr., TB OF
Games played: 9
K%: 13.2%
BB%: 15.8%
ISO: .219
EPL: 1
Assessment: Souza fooled us in 2014 by appearing to be a tasty dual power-speed threat who turned the corner in the plate discipline department. Such was not the case, and he has —had — struggled with contact ever since. Alas, it’s hard not to get excited by a double-digit walk rate that exceeds his strikeout rate.

We’ve seen this before — in June of 2015, to be precise. His 9-game rolling ISO, in that fateful month? Also north of .200 — almost identical to what it is now. It’s enough to make Handsome Author wary. However, Handsome Author is still excited; Souza doesn’t carry the same price tag or perceived market value that he did in 2015. Still, proceed with caution.

AEPL: 3

* * *

Name: Billy Hamilton, CIN OF
Games played: 8
K%: 10.5%
BB%: 2.6%
EPL: 2
Assessment: An almost-single-digit strikeout rate? (It was single digits prior to yesterday’s game.) That’s… that’s real nice.

Surprise — we’ve seen this before. A lot. Like, a lot a lot. Handsome Author doesn’t even need to check Hamilton’s contact metrics (although he did and, be warned, Hamilton has chased pitches more than usual). Hard to complain, though.

AEPL: 3

* * *

Name: Byron Buxton, MIN CF
Games played: 7
K%: 56.7%
BB%: 3.3%
EPL: 5
Assessment: Handsome Author is cruel for even doing this.

Ironically, and very amazingly, this is not the worst Buxton has ever looked in his Major League career. Contact woes ebb and flow, but they suggest he’s not even close to turning the corner.

AEPL: 5

* * *

There’s a reason there are see so many 3s. Do not panic, friends.

Termination of Contract

Handsome Author hereby releases Reader from Contract. Reader is encouraged to use information provided herein to dispel common biases. Should Reader breach Contract — i.e., if Reader does not adhere to Contract’s mandate to enjoy the content provided in Post no matter what — then Reader shall re-enter into the same Contract. Except it cannot be broken and lasts forever. And it involves Handsome Author whispering one bad pun into Reader’s ear every night for the rest of Reader’s life.