RotoGraphs Ridiculously Early Mock Draft: Rounds 6-10
We showed you the first five rounds last week, now it’s time to delve into the second five. Typically, you’re moving on from surer things to high-upside youngsters. I’m working on finding a second-tier ace or two usually, since I don’t pick pitchers in the first two or three rounds. Whatever it is, it’s generally a section of the draft that has an interesting tension between wanting to keep drafting the best player available and needing to start filling out a working, balanced roster.
I found myself without pitchers at the beginning of this section of the draft, and got an interesting set here. Even if I don’t love the guys I got long term, I think they could all have great 2013s.
| 61 | 6.1 Jackie Peanuts | Cliff Lee |
|---|---|---|
| 62 | 6.2 Wade | Madison Bumgarner |
| 63 | 6.3 Sarris | Allen Craig |
| 64 | 6.4 Sanders | Shin-Soo Choo |
| 65 | 6.5 Bender | CC Sabathia |
| 66 | 6.6 J Zim | Jordan Zimmermann |
| 67 | 6.7 Zarzycki | Adam Wainwright |
| 68 | 6.8 Harrison | Brandon Phillips |
| 69 | 6.9 Wiers | Jose Altuve |
| 70 | 6.10 Cwik | Chris Sale |
| 71 | 6.11 Swydan | Asdrubal Cabrera |
| 72 | 6.12 Petriello | Jered Weaver |
| 73 | 7.1 Petriello | Kris Medlen |
| 74 | 7.2 Swydan | Johnny Cueto |
| 75 | 7.3 Cwik | Carlos Santana |
| 76 | 7.4 Wiers | Jimmy Rollins |
| 77 | 7.5 Harrison | Matt Moore |
| 78 | 7.6 Zarzycki | Matt Wieters |
| 79 | 7.7 Jeff Zim | Carlos Beltran |
| 80 | 7.8 Bender | Dan Haren |
| 81 | 7.9 Sanders | Aaron Hill |
| 82 | 7.10 Sarris | Mat Latos |
| 83 | 7.11 Wade | Desmond Jennings |
| 84 | 7.12 Jackie Peanuts | Derek Jeter |
| 85 | 8.1 Jackie Peanuts | Aramis Ramirez |
| 86 | 8.2 Wade | Danny Espinosa |
| 87 | 8.3 Sarris | Aroldis Chapman |
| 88 | 8.4 Sanders | Jason Motte |
| 89 | 8.5 Bender | Mike Moustakas |
| 90 | 8.6 J Zim | Alex Gordon |
| 91 | 8.7 Zarzycki | Elvis Andrus |
| 92 | 8.8 Harrison | Mark Teixeira |
| 93 | 8.9 Wiers | Adam Dunn |
| 94 | 8.10 Cwik | Rickie Weeks |
| 95 | 8.11 Swydan | Miguel Montero |
| 96 | 8.12 Petriello | Mike Morse |
| 97 | 9.1 Petriello | Mark Trumbo |
| 98 | 9.2 Swydan | Corey Hart |
| 99 | 9.3 Cwik | B.J. Upton |
| 100 | 9.4 Wiers | Yovani Gallardo |
| 101 | 9.5 Harrison | Freddie Freeman |
| 102 | 9.6 Zarzycki | Roy Halladay |
| 103 | 9.7 Jeff Zim | Manny Machado |
| 104 | 9.8 Bender | Wilin Rosario |
| 105 | 9.9 Sanders | Tim Hudson |
| 106 | 9.10 Sarris | Joe Nathan |
| 107 | 9.11 Wade | Jake Peavy |
| 108 | 9.12 Jackie Peanuts | Paul Konerko |
| 109 | 10.1 Jackie Peanuts | David Ortiz |
| 110 | 10.2 Wade | Alcides Escobar |
| 111 | 10.3 Sarris | Jarrod Parker |
| 112 | 10.4 Sanders | Fernando Rodney |
| 113 | 10.5 Bender | Drew Stubbs |
| 114 | 10.6 J Zim | Victor Martinez |
| 115 | 10.7 Zarzycki | Ike Davis |
| 116 | 10.8 Harrison | Martin Prado |
| 117 | 10.9 Wiers | Jeff Samardzija |
| 118 | 10.10 Cwik | Jurickson Profar |
| 119 | 10.11 Swydan | Melky Cabrera |
| 120 | 10.12 Petriello | Andre Ethier |
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
Halladay at 102 could be the best pick of the draft.
I hope so!
Obvious his 2012 peripherals and shoulder issues caused him to fall, but once you get beyond the first 6 rounds or so, the guaranteed elite guys are off the board and I prefer to try and pick guys with “easy upside” — those who have already put up Rd 1-5 numbers in the past 3-4 seasons (who might be coming off a down year).
Halladay fits the bill.
Colin,
You crushed it out of the park. Look I know Doc isn’t tha same pitcher he was a couple years ago but DAMN!!!! #102 after guys like Dunn? Hart? WOW! That is a steal. He’s still gonna put up close to 15 Ws 190 Ks and a 3.00 ERA.
You wont be sad with that move and I would remind everyone where you got him 🙂
He’s going to have trouble making enough starts to win 15 games with that team. With maybe 200 innings, he may only strike out around 160-170, not great.
I like the Ethier pick. Going after Drew Stubbs…
Hey, me too!
Looks like Zach Sanders tried to start a closer run and nobody bit. Nice strategy when it works out, but when it doesn’t it really backfires.
Also, BJ Upton at 99? His floor is 20/20. For reference, his ADP in NFBC drafts so far is 43.
And Jeter in the 7th?! This is a roto league and he may not even be ready for opening day.
I don’t care if anyone else bites, and I don’t think it backfires.
Grabbing a couple/few elite closers locks up saves, jacks up your K/IP, and can help keep ERAs and WHIPs in check.
saves are never locked up in the draft. to me, there’s too much injury, uncertainty in year to year reliever performance and opportunity on the waiver wire to invest highly or with too many picks (3 of your top 10), especially when at best the player will only contribute 70 innings. different strokes i guess.
i’m interested to see how your draft plays out on the pitching side. you’ve got some serious ground to make up in the strikeout category and the hudson pick didn’t do you any favors there. that said, you’re filling your remaining spots from the deepest pools in the draft – OF and SP.
Or you could have drafted last year’s John Axford.
or last year’s mariano rivera, joakim soria, ryan madson, drew storen, etc
Henry Rodriguez, Heath Bell, Sean Marshall, John Axford, Ryan Madsen, Brett Myers, Frank Francisco, Javy Guerra, Huston Street, Brian Wilson, Mariano Rivera, Andrew Bailey, Kyle Farnsworth, Sergio Santos, Joakim Soria, Matt Capps, Jordan Walden, Brandon League…all guys that were closers to begin the season or projected to be closers after coming back from injury early in the year
in reality, only the Phillies, Braves, Cards, Rockies, DBacks, Pirates, Orioles, Tigers, Indians, and Rangers ended up having their pre-season projected closer for the entire year…you could look at that in 2 different ways…first, you should load up on top closers to avoid the mess…or secondly, you could avoid closers and just grab saves off the wire all year. depends on size of the league. i just dont get why you would draft them early. yeah, you lock up saves, and it “helps” in some other categories, but drafting Motte ahead of guys like Elvis Andrus, Tex, Alex Gordon, etc just seems like a waste to me.
I’ve been trying to gauge the ADP of Manny Machado. I’ve seen him go as low as 175, and now as high as pick 103. In a keeper league, I’m guessing that he will last no later than round 12. Note to self… draft accordingly.
I think Zimm took him a bit early, but I think he’ll be gone by Round 14, even in redraft leagues.
As the title of this posts suggests, it’s ridiculously early. We should have a much better sense of where anyone, but especially younger players, are going a month or so from now.
Pops-
in any even half way serious keeper league, Machado wont be available.
My keeper league has some restrictions. You can only keep players drafted the year before, five keepers per team, etc. Since Machado was not drafted this year, he will make for a hot commodity come March.
no rios in the first 10 rounds?
Fell to me at 11.6.
One of the biggest bargains and surprises I noticed. No idea how he lasted that long!
Doesn’t Rios have a one good year, one bad year rule? Pretty sure it is empirically proven; Jamesian approved, etc. 2013 is down year, ftr.
Science!
Wow Altuve! Is he really so much better than Andrelton?
I guess 33 stolen bases is a stretch for Andrelton, but I’ll be writing him up shortly.
I reached for him too much. I looked at how shallow (I think) second base is and grabbed him too early. That said, a .290 average is top 10 for a 2B, his 33 SB was the best, and his 80 runs scored just missed being top 10.
Still, I took him too early.
Rickie Weeks at 8.10 could be quite a bargain. Lots of upside there.
I love Weeks. I feel like he was still getting over his ankle injury early on last year. Check out his monthly splits, he had a really great second half.
Bendey, you’re going to win SB by a wide margin, you have a great staff, but without looking past the 10th round I am really interested to see where you get your power and RBI from. Did you go into the draft with the mindset of taking speed and runs while sacrificing average, HR and RBI? Are there late power numbers to be found? Will Bullwinkle make it to the old mine in time to save the day?
I agree that I might be short on power, even with some help I might get from some of the lower round picks. I think the base is ok with what I expect to see from Pujols, Rosario and even Moustakas and Stubbs who should knock roughly 20 HR, but RBI will be an issue if I don’t make a move relatively early in the season. A trade of some SB for some power, even just power potential, is what I would be seeking sometime in mid to late May. Of course, I could always find Sherman and Mr. Peabody, try to go back in time and grab some more power a little earlier next time….maybe over someone like Haren in the seventh.
and yes, I went into the draft with the intention of dominating speed, as I said in my Michael Bourn man-crush article from last week. Jump out to an early lead and then trade for a bat or two.
Beltran/Jennings before Gordon is interesting. Beltran I can see, but Gordon seems better than Jennings in everything but steals.
Wow, Konerko at 108!? He should be taken ahead of Freeman and Teixera
I thought Konerko at 9.12 was a good value selection also. If I miss out on Votto or one of the other 1B studs very early in the draft, I would be more than satisfied getting Konerko in the late 9th-early 10th.
It seems to me that there is a large drop-off in value in starting pitching after the early in the 7th round.
61. Cliff Lee; 62. Bumgardner; 65. Sabathia; 67. Wainwright; 72. Weaver.
versus:
74. Cueto; 80. Haren; 82. Latos; 100. Gallardo.
The difference is that top group have pitched at elite levels on a consistent basis; opposed to the pitchers available a few picks later whom have an either/or quality to them.
Is there a strong argument here regarding relative value of a starting pitcher after the 7th round? Despite some pitchers only being 10 picks removed from one another, their value is much higher due to the drop off at the position.
How many bums shall Madison’s crop yield this season?
I would argue that there is not much difference in value with the two groups you named aside from Clifton, who floats to the top.
CC, as stated in an FG article toady by the POD dissecting the AL SP taken in these rounds, is at his riskiest this season. Also noted in that article is the fact that Weaver is losing MPH on his FB, which unless reversed will lead to lower K numbers in the future (and possibly worse numbers all around as with most pitchers who lose significant FB velo). Wainwright put together a nice season last year, I would agree that he should have a nice season again. Madison is also a good bet to perform well.
Your other group includes Cueto, who has put together two nice seasons in a row and is only 27 years old. His K/9 may not be what his minor league numbers may have lead us to believe, but they are not going to hurt you considering his WHIP and ERA. Haren lost 2 MPH on his FB, which led to an overall poor performance. He is 33, so there is the possibility that this loss is not going to be recovered, but there is also the chance that he was pitching hurt to get a contract in a FA year. He has now moved back to the NL, which should benefit him. Latos put together a decent year last year, not all that dissimilar to Wainwright’s 2012, with no reason he should not repeat. Yovani had a bumpy ride but ended up with an OK line.
My point is that the line you drew could be argued, and I chose to. You might feel comfortable drawing that line and some of it comes to personal taste, and a good amount to luck and injury. I will wait a bit and take my 2nd SP later.
Can you platoon Either?
Or hasn’t signed with a team yet.
Ethier
Any chance Profar provides excess value in round 10? I love him long-term, but as a 10th rounder this year, it seems like Cwik is paying for Profar’s ceiling when his floor could look substantially worse (questionable playing time, 2 tier jump from AA, etc).
Jackie Peanuts goes Cliff Lee, Derek Jeter, Aramis Ramirez, Paul Konerko, and David Ortiz in these rounds. Isn’t there a lot of age/injury related risk to those picks?
So many catchers in the first 10 rounds. 8 to be exact. Still waiting to draft Brian McCann, AJP, AJE, Martin, Doumit, Jesus Montero, Napoli. If I’m learning anything from this early mock, it’s to wait on a catcher. Taking Posey, Mauer and Molina before a quality middle infielder seems like a waste. Posey was great last year, but is he a 1st round pick? I’d hate to be in the position to have to make that call.
Yeah I like waiting on catcher this year too in one catcher leagues. Will say that picks 9-14 are really tough though, and Buster Posey is dreamy.
The last time people were singing praises like that for a catcher, Joe Mauer pooped his pants in 2010. Not disrespecting the man, just the volatility of the position.
I’ve got pick 10 and 11 in a ten team keeper league. Hoping that Votto or Fielder will be there at ten. Stanton was looking good at 11 before the Marlins decided to bring in replacement players.
It shouldn’t take an expert draft to show us this… just saying.
Pops should have drafted in place of Petriello, he knows what he’s talking about.
Peanuts age in 6-10 mixes well with the youth he took in 1-5. He actually had one of the better drafts you could ask for considering there were very few “bad” picks from what I can see. As old as those guys are, none of them seem to be slowing down and if he can get near repeat (i.e. slight decline) production from them, that’s a damn good 6-10.
So far though I think Petriello has everyone beat pulling Weaver and Medlen back to back in 6-7. Rounded out his 1st 5 perfectly. If Headley doesn’t step too far back on power, he’s the clear leader for me.
I think Wiers is having an interesting draft. Dunn, Granderson and Rollins (to a lesser extent) bad batting average which will be somewhat offset by McCutch, Hamilton, Altuve and hopefully Zimm. Add in Austin Jackson and by delaying pitching he’s basically filled in OF 1-4 and the infield with quality players. The penalty for waiting on pitching is risk but in Samardjzia and Gallardo, he’s got guys who could both give him mid to low 3 ERAs with 200Ks. I see a lot of potential in this first 10.
Did I miss him or was James Shields not a top 30 SP?
KC stank dropped him to the 11th as you’ll soon find out….
I hope he doesn’t get shelved too long for that. *Opens up the newspaper on April 27 to read:
DAILY TRANSACTIONS–
Kansas City: James Shields transferred to the 60-day DL (KC Stank).
I noticed this too. Jarrod Parker going before Shields? I don’t know about that..
Wow, I think Trumbo is a bargain.
I agree. I watched him fall and was hoping to grab him in the ninth with my pick. Similarly to Kipnis, I am not so concerned with a second half drop off on such a young player. I think he hits real well in that lineup.
Only name doesn’t seem to fit among these upside guys and proven performers is Haren. Guy was bad last year, has ongoing health issue that made a difficult sign, and is about career innings spent. Pretty good prediction is he will continue mediocrity. Latos Haren which doesn’t belong? Both. Latos is good and Haren ain’t.
Admittedly, a bit of an oops pick there. But hoping that with a rested offseason and a return to the NL, things get better.
I think Carlos Santana at pick 75 has lots of value, as does Aramis Ramirez at 85. Gotta love BJ Upton at 99 and Halladay at 102 as well.
I think Ike Davis at 115 is an absolute steal. Guy could easily produce value at the Rd 4 or 5 level . . . heck, he did last year once he got over Valley Fever. He’s wayyyyy higher on my list, and for me the best value play so far.
I know he had a terrible year, but where is Eric Hosmer in the first 10 rounds of the draft? Potential alone should have him somewhere in at least the first 10 rounds.