Rotographs Rankings First Run – Shortstops
Some of this is being repeated from the Primer piece that went up this morning.
We’re bringing them to you earlier this year, but that also means that they’re far from set in stone so take that into consideration as you peruse them. There are still strong arms on the free agent market, let alone all the moving and shaking that happens once players start reporting to camp.
- Outfielder (Jan. 18)
- Starting Pitcher (Jan. 20)
- Shortstop (Jan. 22-today)
- First Base (Jan. 25)
- Catcher (Jan. 26)
- Second Base (Jan. 27)
- Third Base (Jan. 28)
- DH (Jan. 29)
- Reliever (Jan. 29 courtesy of the Bullpen Report crew)
We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances. These rankings assume the standard 5×5 categories and a re-draft league. If we forgot someone, please let us know in the comments and we’ll make sure he’s added for the updates. If you have questions for a specific ranker on something he did, let us know in the comments.
We can also be reached via Twitter:
There will be differences, sharp differences, within the rankings. The rankers have different philosophies when it comes to ranking, some of which you’re no doubt familiar with through previous iterations. Of course the idea that we’d all think the same would be silly because then what would be the point of including multiple rankers?!
Think someone should be higher or lower? Make a case. Let us know why you think that. Like I said, it’s early. Things are going to change.
The chart is sortable and by default it’s sorted by AVG. If a ranker didn’t rank someone that the others did, he was given that ranker’s last rank +1. That would be 47 for Zach, 52 for Dan, 48 for Brad, and 51 for Paul K. Everyone in the top 50 were on the lists of Jeff and myself so we don’t have any +1s.
Mike’s SS rankings will be in the next run.
Key:
- AVG– just the average of the seven ranking sets
- Adj. AVG – the average minus the high and low rankings
- SPLIT– the difference between the high and low rankings
| Jeff | Zach | Dan | Brad | Paul S | Paul K | AVG | Adj. AVG | SPLIT | ||
| 1 | Carlos Correa | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 |
| 2 | Xander Bogaerts | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1 |
| 3 | Francisco Lindor | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 4 |
| 4 | Troy Tulowitzki | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2 |
| 5 | Corey Seager | 8 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 4 |
| 6 | Ian Desmond | 10 | 6 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7 |
| 7 | Jung-ho Kang | 6 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 8 |
| 8 | Elvis Andrus | 4 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 11 | 11 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 11 |
| 9 | Marcus Semien | 13 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 11.0 | 11.3 | 5 |
| 10 | Jhonny Peralta | 18 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 7 | 11.2 | 10.5 | 11 |
| 11 | Starlin Castro | 7 | 14 | 9 | 16 | 9 | 14 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 9 |
| 12 | Jose Reyes | 12 | 13 | 5 | 24 | 12 | 13 | 13.2 | 12.5 | 19 |
| 13 | Addison Russell | 19 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 16 | 13.3 | 14.0 | 14 |
| 14 | Ketel Marte | 15 | 8 | 14 | 11 | 25 | 10 | 13.8 | 12.5 | 17 |
| 15 | Alcides Escobar | 17 | 18 | 13 | 20 | 15 | 15 | 16.3 | 16.3 | 7 |
| 16 | Brandon Crawford | 30 | 16 | 28 | 6 | 13 | 18 | 18.5 | 18.8 | 24 |
| 17 | Alexei Ramirez | 16 | 23 | 16 | 26 | 19 | 17 | 19.5 | 18.8 | 10 |
| 18 | Trea Turner | 11 | 17 | 19 | 29 | 30 | 12 | 19.7 | 19.3 | 19 |
| 19 | Brad Miller | 26 | 21 | 27 | 14 | 16 | 20 | 20.7 | 20.8 | 13 |
| 20 | Jean Segura | 14 | 9 | 17 | 36 | 27 | 22 | 20.8 | 20.0 | 27 |
| 21 | Eugenio Suarez | 29 | 25 | 27 | 9 | 23 | 24 | 22.8 | 24.8 | 20 |
| 22 | Jed Lowrie | 28 | 20 | 26 | 17 | 28 | 19 | 23.0 | 23.3 | 11 |
| 23 | Asdrubal Cabrera | 27 | 19 | 22 | 32 | 18 | 21 | 23.2 | 22.3 | 14 |
| 24 | Didi Gregorius | 25 | 22 | 25 | 27 | 17 | 26 | 23.7 | 24.5 | 10 |
| 25 | Erick Aybar | 22 | 27 | 21 | 25 | 26 | 28 | 24.8 | 25.0 | 7 |
| 26 | Jose Iglesias | 20 | 24 | 18 | 33 | 32 | 23 | 25.0 | 24.8 | 15 |
| 27 | Andrelton Simmons | 23 | 22 | 20 | 34 | 31 | 25 | 25.8 | 25.3 | 14 |
| 28 | Chris Owings | 24 | 26 | 23 | 37 | 21 | 27 | 26.3 | 25.0 | 16 |
| 29 | Javier Baez | 9 | 45 | 29 | 38 | 33 | 29 | 30.5 | 32.3 | 36 |
| 30 | Jimmy Rollins | 21 | 36 | 24 | 30 | 42 | 34 | 31.2 | 31.0 | 21 |
| 31 | Adeiny Hechavarria | 34 | 29 | 34 | 35 | 24 | 33 | 31.5 | 32.5 | 11 |
| 32 | J.J. Hardy | 36 | 32 | 31 | 19 | 44 | 31 | 32.2 | 32.5 | 25 |
| 33 | Zack Cozart | 32 | 33 | 33 | 22 | 34 | 40 | 32.3 | 33.0 | 18 |
| 34 | Eduardo Escobar | 42 | 28 | 32 | 23 | 35 | 39 | 33.2 | 33.5 | 19 |
| 35 | Danny Espinosa | 33 | 47 | 52 | 28 | 20 | 35 | 35.8 | 35.8 | 32 |
| 36 | Enrique Hernandez | 43 | 30 | 39 | 39 | 22 | 43 | 36.0 | 37.8 | 21 |
| 37 | Jonathan Villar | 35 | 38 | 37 | 40 | 40 | 38 | 38.0 | 38.3 | 5 |
| 38 | Jose Ramirez | 31 | 46 | 30 | 48 | 43 | 30 | 38.0 | 37.5 | 18 |
| 39 | Wilmer Flores | 40 | 35 | 36 | 41 | 45 | 32 | 38.2 | 38.0 | 13 |
| 40 | Cesar Hernandez | 44 | 40 | 45 | 18 | 37 | 46 | 38.3 | 41.5 | 28 |
| 41 | Brock Holt | 49 | 31 | 50 | 21 | 36 | 49 | 39.3 | 41.3 | 29 |
| 42 | Nick Ahmed | 38 | 34 | 35 | 45 | 53 | 41 | 41.0 | 39.8 | 19 |
| 43 | Jordy Mercer | 37 | 39 | 44 | 44 | 48 | 37 | 41.5 | 41.0 | 11 |
| 44 | Marwin Gonzalez | 46 | 47 | 42 | 48 | 38 | 36 | 42.8 | 43.3 | 12 |
| 45 | Danny Santana | 39 | 37 | 38 | 48 | 61 | 42 | 44.2 | 41.8 | 24 |
| 46 | Freddy Galvis | 41 | 41 | 46 | 42 | 50 | 47 | 44.5 | 44.0 | 9 |
| 47 | Ryan Goins | 47 | 47 | 48 | 31 | 51 | 51 | 45.8 | 48.3 | 20 |
| 48 | Jedd Gyorko | 54 | 47 | 43 | 48 | 39 | 45 | 46.0 | 45.8 | 15 |
| 49 | Trevor Story | 52 | 47 | 52 | 46 | 29 | 51 | 46.2 | 49.0 | 23 |
| 50 | Tyler Saladino | 48 | 42 | 49 | 48 | 41 | 51 | 46.5 | 46.8 | 10 |
Machado gained SS elig last year on yahoo. Sadly it was after i traded him away in a keeper league.
Any of these guys dramatically up or down in OBP league?
Bogaerts loses value, for sure.
If the minimum number of starts is 5, Manny Machado should be included in the rankings.
Ah nuts, we forgot Machado, but I mean, he’s pretty obviously 1.
And at worst, 2 if someone REALLY loves Correa.
I could see Seager moving up to the 2 spot by draft day – lot’s of hype there
thought yahoo was 10 starts needed
“We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances.”
5 starts and 10 appearances are the requirements to gain eligibility during the season. There are no guidelines for the initial position granted to a player.
“At the beginning of the Fantasy Baseball season, Yahoo Sports placed all players into positions, based partially on information from official MLB rosters but also drawing from past performance.”
“After 5 regular season starts at that position, or 10 total appearances at that position during the regular season.”
An example of this is David Ortiz, who had 5 starts at 1b in 2014 not to have 1b eligibility to begin 2015.
Someone loves some Trea Turner!
Have a really hard time understanding the disparity in rankings of Brandon Crawford. I’d be interested in hearing Jeff and Dan explain how he got to the bottom of their lists.
I won’t answer for them, but my guess is that the statistical models see ’15 as a pretty big outlier and thus regress him hard.
I got no horse in this race, (don’t own Crawford, not a Giants fan, etc.) but while 2015 does look like an outlier, I also see:
top 10 in fly ball distance
career high pull rate
career high hard%
career high O-Swing% and Z-Swing% (and therefore obviously swing%)
Also career worst swingk% and contract rate…
So, clearly he traded some plate discipline for power and hit the snot out of the ball. His HR/FB was high at 16.7% but 10-12% may not be out of the question next year.
I don’t believe in the HR at all. I see 10 HR, 5 SB, and .250 AVG. Not a top fantasy option. Better real=time player than fantasy option.
Wait a minute. It is well documented that Crawford has bulked up since he first became a starter with the Giants.
Also, check the slugging percentage. As one of your colleagues pointed out last year, it has gone up for four consecutive seasons. That suggests to me the power is real.
I own him only in a points league, so the batting average is irrelevant to me. In this league, 1.5 points is awarded for every RBI, so I like to say: the fastest way to at least 6.5 points is a home run.
And I’d be very surprised, barring injury, if Crawford doesn’t hit at least 16-20 HRs in 2016.
10 HR is very reasonable. It was his career high before 2015, after all. Check out the HR/FB%:
2011: 5.3%
2012: 3.9%
2013: 7.0%
2014: 6.5%
2015: 16.2%
One of these things is not like the other ones…
Sure, the difference in his HR/FB% is noticeable. And yes, it’s likely there will be some regression.
I’m just not buying that it’s going down to 10.
And here’s the article that explains my stubborn point of view: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/giants-reward-brandon-crawfords-unusual-path/
You either buy the argument in this piece or you don’t. I do.
i would use ’13 and ’14 as benchmarks. 60-15-60-5-250 is almost a ceiling.
Love this site, but I’m going to have to blast the low rankers here. “I don’t believe the HR at all”.
Ok…why? Well, let’s see the fly ball distance has increased from 271 to 278 to 305. Ok, FBs must be decreasing. Well, 33.5% was below career averages but nothing in profile suggests it should go lower, I think 35% is a safe bet. HR to FB rate fits in comfortably around guys with 280-300 distance even if you regress some of his distance. Also, nice comparison is his 2012 vs. 2015 swing, check out the differences. So…I submit that Crawford has a HIGHER ceiling. Please refute.
It’s a classic case of blindly using a projection system to forecast production, paying no attention at all to recent mechanical changes or change to approach.
In this case, Crawford’s swing is a lot different than it was 3 years ago. He has conciosly made an effort to drive the ball rather than just slap it around.
This was already mentioned earlier, but it would be great if as many of the rankers could weigh in as possible:
If Machado had SS eligibility, where would he fall on these rankings? Additionally, where would you draft SS Machado as opposed to 3B Machado in a snake 5×5( ex: 6th overall instead of 8th overall)
Non-rankers are encouraged to weigh in as well. Thanks
Again, I feel like he’s pretty obviously first. He’s going in the mid-1st round w/3B eligibility in leagues that require 20 games, I can’t see how he’d fall by adding SS elig.
Right, of course not. I meant 6th overall amongst all players (not just SS) as a SS, and 8th overall amongst all players as a 3B in my example.
I should mention this isn’t a pure hypothetical. I’m pretty sure he’ll qualify in CBS leagues.
Check the other comments, Owen 🙂 We’re all over it. (It’ll be Yahoo! leagues where he’ll qualify btw)
and ottoneu, that fantasy baseball game over on fangraphs.com
You guys made me check.
I would very happily move Machado to SS, but our league (CBS Commissioner) requires 10 games to qualify for the position and Machado only played 7.
I’d put Kang over Desmond because I see Desmond’s floor being Melvin Upton low.
After Kang #’s 7-20 are throw a dart territory.
I wouldn’t set new floor for Desmond because of one bad half in the past 4 years. I understand being uncomfortable with him, but I feel like he has to get the benefit of the doubt due to his 20/20 consistency.
If he goes 20/20 but hits .220/290 avg/OBP while doing it no thanks. At 30 years old I don’t see the declining contact/discipline trends of the last few years suddenly reversing.
on the other hand I think Kang’s floor is more like .270/.330 with 15/10 HR/SB and I like his range of outcomes better.
I play OBP so that also slants my view here as Desmond and Kang are probably two of the most extreme value losers/gainers when OBP gets added.
you can set a floor on kang’s talent, but he also snapped a leg last year and that can mess a guy up for a long time. not always, but, the downside is there
That’s fair Wily Mo. I am probably underrating setback potential with Kang’s leg.
I have the choice of keeping Desmond or Kang. I am having a hard time believing in Kang coming back strong. I definitely think of Morales when I see a bad leg injury; being an Angel fan. If there was no injury, I would keep Kang. Someone want to tell me and ease my fears Kang can have strength in his lower half?
Totally agree about this list after Kang.
In my keeper league, 6 of the top 8 will be retained, leaving the rest of us thinking Tulo, Desmond, or bust. (Or bust, bust, or bust, for short.)
Thoughts on where I should hope for my dart to land on those lower down the list.
I keep looking at Brad Miller’s .260/.320 avg/OBP last year with solid BB/K rates paired with a reasonable babip. He went 11/13 HR/SB in 497 PA and put up a .144 ISO playing home games in Safeco. TB is not necessarily a much better park but with 50-100 more PA he pushes 15/15 in HR/SB looking at lot like Logan forsythe 2015 but SS/OF eligible (at least) to start the year. Also only 26 and decently good prospect pedigree to go with it.
One issue is that Miller is terrible against lefties and that probably isn’t going to change. I’d hope the Rays strictly platoon him. So I think you can either hope for more playing time or slightly better numbers but not both.
Assuming Eugenio Suarez got 550 at bats…even if that is pulling full time work at 3B or LF……then does he move materially up these ranks? How much of his ranking is due to don’t believe the skills versus playing time concerns?
He’s looking like a fine insurance policy if you grab a SS like Tulo/Reyes/Kang that may/will miss some time. If he adds 3B and maybe even OF eligibility that’ll be a nifty plug and play bench bat that has top 10 fantasy SS upside should he continue to flash the power.
I replied to a comment saying similar, but I believe people are mistaken how Yahoo handles eligibility. 5 starts or 10 games played in a season does not get you eligibility for the next season, rather those are requirements how to gain eligibility during the current season. The positions they begin with are without specific guidelines.
David ortiz started 5 games in 2014, but did not have 1b eligibility to begin 2015. He gained it once he started 5 games. I assume he will lose it again to begin this season.
This is another great point in favor of yahoo eligibility being complete clown-shoes.
At least we already know who will be eligible where in ESPN/CBS for 2016 because they have clear and consistent rules (presumably ottoneu too?).
Yahoo assigns eligibility by picking names out of a hat pre-season and then dilutes the challenge of leagues played under those rules by letting everyone and their uncles pick up eligibility in-season.
/rant : I know RG is doing the best they can to be inclusive but I strongly suspect the average RG reader is far less likely to play yahoo than your average fantasy player.
You’re right that they don’t ALWAYS honor the previous season’s qualifications, but it IS their baseline. Exceptions are rare. The only one I noticed last year was Hochevar having SP/RP eligibility when he hadn’t started a game in 2013, his previous season (he was out all year in 2014 and I guess they decided to give him both qualifications to honor his years as a starter).
Yahoo requires 5 starts for in-season eligibility. 10 for the following season. Double that for ESPN. Have to wait on Machado
Is it 10? The Yahoo help page was very unclear about that…
“Player criteria-
At the beginning of the Fantasy Baseball season, Yahoo Sports placed all players into positions, based partially on information from official MLB rosters but also drawing from past performance.”
Are folks really this gung-ho over Lindor? If I’m a Tulo owner, should I actively be trying to do a Lindor + 2nd player for Tulo if I could pull that off?
If I had Lindor, you would have to give me Tulo + 2nd player. Tulo’s a different player now…
Yes. Sell now. He might have another year or two in the tank, but it’s starting to come apart. Injuries eventually add up.
Earlier someone asked about OBP leagues. I’m in an OBP dynasty and contemplating offering Schwaber for Seager. If I have Betts and Correa, am I just over thinking the hype that Seager is getting?
since you have correa, im inclined to see what schwarber could do – trade him next year if he doesn’t keep C eligibility maybe? unless the NL DH somehow comes to fruition. If im the cubs, i’m praying for that – they still have Almora and McKinney approaching.
Thank you. At first I was gung ho for Seager, but now I’m thinking of waiting. Schwarber might suck defensively, but if he just stays out there he could be pretty good in an OBP league.
You have the same tendencies as me, and I am in an OBP league. I own all four of those guys, plus Bryant, but can keep 6. Am deciding upon Russell, Yelich, and Soler. Russell seems mediocre batting 8th/9th, but I could be set at SS/2B/MI for quite awhile, while also weakening the positions for the rest of the league.
I know Yelich and Soler will outproduce Russell for a few years probably, but OF’s can be found and drafted more easily too.
I’ve had Lindor in my minors for a few years. Always tried to trade him to a less-knowledgeable owner who would get enamored by his high prospect ranking and not realize that his helium was mostly because of his defense. Never got anyone to bite.
Now I’m glad they didn’t…
At least till that helium balloon pops and he hits like he did till the 2nd half of last year.
Lindor slashed .345/.386/.544 in the second half last year. Did you mean someone else, or a different split perhaps?
Lindor HR/FB 13%
Bogaerts HR/FB 5%
Fly ball distances both about 268. They could improve, and probably well, but I’d sell high if you can.
Helium! That’s why his BABIP was so inflated.
I have to choose between a $4 Kang and a $24 Dozier as a keeper. $260 cap.
My heart says Kang and my head says…. Dozier’s going to get more homers, maybe by a lot thanks to Kang’s late start.
Kang for sure. Dozier’s total value will be a bit better, but not $20 in price better.
I love Kang, but I’d delay that decision as long as possible due to his injury. If it looks like he’ll be ready very early in the season, then I’d keep him. Otherwise go with the healthy guy who projects to better overall numbers, $20 price differential or not.
Paul —
I thought I was optimistic on Addison Russell myself, but you’ve gone a step or two beyond and are clearly an outlier among everyone else’s ranks here.
Can you elaborate on why you have him where you have him?
outliers in my opinion:
Too high:
Lindor – just don’t think the power is real
Marte – the upside is an empty .280
Too low:
E. Escobar – safe everyday job with a tinge of upside. Don’t see any reason he’d be behind Alicedes Escobar.
Baez – I can see why he’s there just based on projected playing time, but outside of Correa might be the best bet on the list for >20 homers
Marte is probably a leadoff hitter with a good OBP, so you also get 90-100 runs, say 5-10 HR, 15-20 SB, and 55 RBI? Compare that to the players we ranked around him – he fits.
That’s veeeeeeerrrryyyy aggressive off of 57 games in the majors. He hit 10 HR in 1896 minor league PA. He had a .330 OBP and 6% BB rate, too. And the Ms have had 1 guy score 90 R in the last five years – Cruz last year. I just don’t get the Marte love.
I’m with Paul here. There is no HR power, the BB rate looks VERY high based in minors numbers. The speed is average, not like we are talking about even prime Jimmy Rollins speed here. I would bet even money andrelton simmons outperforms Marte next year.
He has deceptive power which is why I think he can tap into more this year. It hasn’t really shown up in games yet, but it’s in the swing. This is in part a scouting pick.
I’m a little peeved that others are on the bandwagon because I’m supposed to be the only guy applying scouting info. And I agree that the stats alone better support Paul’s side.
He has a 090 ISO in the minors and his net steal rate is not that impressive in leagues where defenses let players run wild. That’s ISO has gotta be in the Billy Hamilton range. There’s no 10 HR power there.
Ketel should be a good real life SS but literally everything is going against him from a fantasy perspective.
First, this is ugly let’s face it. Here is what I don’t like.
Bogaerts 2 – For the life of me I cannot see how steamer got to 16hrs for him. Concerned about Lindors HR totals with a flyball distance of 267? Bogaerts was…268. and it’s not like he hits a ton of FBs. That .372BABIP looks suspiciously high, he was very aggressive at the plate overall last year. I mean, I could see .270/12 with a .315 OBP. Could he improve? Sure! But he sure didn’t show me much last year beyond the BABIP. Heck, Freddy Galvis had a higher line drive rate than Bogaerts last year.
Crawford way too low. Bet against the HR, distance don’t lie. I’d take him 6 or 7 latest. Miller too low, simmons a few spots too low. Galvis – sheesh 41st for a guy who went .263/7/10 last year without a fluky BABIP and is still just 26? I’ll bet he sneaks into the top 20 with across the board slight improvement, maybe better. You can take Owings all you want. Finally, Flores. I know playing time is an issue but man i’d take a chance on increased playing time for him via injury or trade vs. taking most of those over 19 to 20.
Here are my thoughts on Bogy – http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/xander-bogaerts-the-next-big-thing/
I think too many will get hung up on what he did last year and think that’s who he is now when I think it was just him honing his hit tool with concerted effort for base hits and using all fields.
Good read. Just as Crawford improved from 271 to 278 and 305 in fly ball distance I suppose Bogy can improve. As far as Machado/Arenad/Harper as expamples of players that took awhile to mature it’s true, but it’s also true that they were injured alot. And Harper always had elite FB distance, and Machado/Arenado improved from 280 to 297 from 2013-2015 roughly. Bogaerts is starting at 268. With that BABIP risk I don’t think he finishes nearly as high ranking this year. What if…his BABIP is .330, and he hits .275 and his flyball distance improves to 275? Maybe longer term as a fantasy asset he can improve, but honestly he’s very very very unlikely to become to start we thought he could be.
Well Harper’s 22, did he really take a long time to mature? I’d argue that he’s ahead of the curve…
And Arenado is 24.
Jeff – can you explain why you’re so much higher on Baez (9th) than the rest of the FG team (Zach has him 45th!).
I own him so I’m hoping you’re right…
As some people have mentioned, it is just a mess after the first 6-7 SS. I think Baez has the most upside of the rest. If I am wrong, there are some other options. If I was in a deeper league, I may not be as high and go with a safer play
amazing how hard y’all are riding Lindor’s dick
Tell us what you really mean? I don’t think we understand…
spoken like someone with a pygmy dick
How high do you rank Correa in a really simple keeper league where you just keep your best three players, regardless of prior year draft slot or salary?
And I mean overall…is he top 5 yet?
ESPN has him as the #5 keeper behind Trout, Harper, Bryant, and Goldy. Depending on what happens this season, he could even get up to #4, past Goldy.
No, he’s not top 5 in that format. He might be top 12. I disagree, but I know a lot of my colleagues consider him a first rounder. Certainly, if you want to own him, you have to treat him as a Top 10-12 player.
Glad I got him on May 1st, as a waiver wire add. Although in the process I dropped Lindor. Win 1, lose 1?
I also have Baez and would like more info on the disparity in rankings..seems like he’s in a logjam with playing time, maybe utility role at best..however the talent is real. Anyone else think he’ll end the season as a top 10 SS?
Russell *is* the shortstop. They just spent $54m on Zobrist to play second. The Cubs are stocked with corner outfielders. Baez is talented, but there is no open spot. He could end up backing up Bryant at 3B, Russell at SS, Zobrist at 2B, and they’re teaching him CF, so he could maybe get some time there… but if he plays well, that’s 300-400 PA. Not sure how he finish the season in the top 10 at SS unless Russell’s injured.
Baez’s best chance to play is in the outfield. So…
1. He looks like a 5-10 PA per week player.
2. He still has massive contact problems.
3. If he’s on the active roster, he won’t play enough to improve.
I love the love for Lindor, because I won’t touch him. He had 21 HR’s in 1648 AB in the minors to go along with a .279 BA. I would be willing to bet that he is closer to .250 than .280 and 6-8 HR’s then 12-15
Brad Miller has always been ranked very high coming up in the minors. Yes he has a harder time against the lefty, but with the location you would be drafting him, I would take his numbers and increase what he did last year.
Kang only issue and it is a question mark is how does he come back from that injury. If he did the exact same thing as last year, he would be a top 5 SS. I am glad people are questioning that injury, it lowers his price. I am targeting him high and backing him up with a Russell or Miller.
Speaking of Russell, he is 22 and has a better history than Lindor does. Another guy that will go very low in drafts that I am willing to take a chance on as a back up player with a good upside.
Jhonny Perelta does nothing great, but will not kill you. His BA is decent, power numbers are pretty good .He is the type of player that doesn’t get any respect and goes lower in every draft. Those are the type of players I like to get. Someone with good value that is under rated.
Everyone is on a Bear market for all the young guys. I will gaurantee not all of them have good/great years. I would also be willing to bet that more than not have underperforming years compared to what their current projections are.
Quick Quiz:
Cole for Wheeler, Conforto and Shields. Who wins?
Cole for Wheeler, Conforto and Oswaldo Arcia. Who wins?
Cole!!! And it isn’t even close!!!!
Yes, I say Cole as well. Something tells me Conforto is going to be a .300/.400/.450 guy though.
This is selfish, since I need to decide where to keep Russell, but I think he would be an excellent for a feature piece. Weighing in on his risk/reward for redraft vs. keeper, and different types of leagues like avg vs obp. Think there are probably a lot of people deciding whether to keep him or not.
You could look at the upside of his age, playing SS, being SS/2B eligible for this year, potent lineup with chance of moving up in lineup if he hits well and others struggle, emerging power, and hitters park.
On the other hand you could weigh that against him hitting 8th/9th for the next few years likely, having a pretty unspectacular year last year, not having much speed and not a great body to age at position, and SS seeming to have a lot of premium talent coming up now and near future.
Any takers on this article?
Any thoughts, insights, or comments about these things from anyone?
Paul, I seem to think like you do with a lot of your assessments. But, Ian Desmond at #4? Even the #11 being the worst place for all of you guys is high IMO. The guys was a drop candidate last year and not much better the year before. His K rate is horendous. Past reputation can only go so far. He is now what Javier Baez was 2 years ago. Actually, I would prefer Baez over him just because of the upside. (I know playing time is a concern for Baez).
Though he had a strong September I don’t see Corey Seager as the 5th best SS in baseball this year.
Bizarre that Bogaerts is ranked ahead of guys who are younger and more productive than him already. Especially since he’s the guy whose only success so far was entirely dependant on the vagaries of BABIP.
Let’s not pretend Bogaerts has sucked, either. His 108 OPS+ is still the fourth-best age-22 season from a shortstop since 1990: Alex Rodriguez (136), Hanley Ramirez (116), and Troy Tulowitzki (109). And again, he was the best shortstop in fantasy this year.
Dynasty roto league – do I keep Lindor or Seager? Agree with many that Lindor’s power was unusual second half of last year. I could see a sophomore slump and sub .750 ops (a category in our league). Leaning Seager.