RotoGraphs June Consensus Ranks: Starting Pitcher
Starting pitching is so tough to evaluate. First, you get massive amounts of information every five days, but each of those bursts of information is tied to a single park or team and is so context dependent. Second, there are only five starting slots, and if you’re the sixth-best starting pitcher on your team, you’re outta luck.
That last part is really the reason for the delay on these rankings. Tony Cingrani was a starting pitcher yesterday and we were about to pub the rankings — and then news came out that Mat Latos would take his slot this week. Now Cingrani is suddenly among the prospects — who are impossible to project given their uncertain role — and waiting for Alfredo Simon to pumpkin or Latos to hurt again. That’s not great for his ranking.
At some point you have to pull the plug on all the emails and put the rankings out. There’s going to be news tomorrow about an injury, and you’ll have to move that pitcher down mentally in your head.
And, man, is this a volatile list or what. Danny Salazar dropped 106 spots in the rankings! Trevor Cahill might get his spot back, but in the meantime he dropped 55 places in the rankings! Clay Buchholz is down 64! The biggest previously-ranked risers were Johnny Cueto (34), Corey Kluber (38), Scott Kazmir (35), Garret Richards (53), and Yordano Ventura (37), all guys I own everywhere. Wait, no, I was just pointing out your hot young studs. Wait, no, that sounds bad too.
Pitchers — enjoy them like I do. (Damn.)
Again, this is for rest of season 5×5 roto, and though Jeff Zimmerman mostly uses the rest of season projections, it’s not just a computer ranking. We’ve left off the color coding in favor of a simple up or down arrow — those arrows are only next to big movers from their preseason position. The table is designed to be sortable in case you prefer one of the rankings.
RG | Name | Jeff | Zach | Mike | Eno |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Clayton Kershaw | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2 | Felix Hernandez | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
3 | Yu Darvish | 4 | 6 | 2 | 3 |
4 | Adam Wainwright | 9 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
5 | Max Scherzer | 3 | 5 | 7 | 8 |
6 | Chris Sale | 7 | 8 | 5 | 6 |
7![]() |
Masahiro Tanaka | 12 | 4 | 8 | 5 |
8 | Stephen Strasburg | 8 | 9 | 6 | 7 |
9 | Madison Bumgarner | 5 | 10 | 9 | 9 |
10 | Zack Greinke | 10 | 7 | 11 | 10 |
11 | David Price | 6 | 14 | 10 | 15 |
12![]() |
Anibal Sanchez | 15 | 12 | 16 | 13 |
13![]() |
Johnny Cueto | 17 | 11 | 28 | 11 |
14 | Cole Hamels | 13 | 22 | 21 | 20 |
15![]() |
Julio Teheran | 20 | 13 | 38 | 12 |
16![]() |
Corey Kluber | 33 | 18 | 12 | 22 |
17![]() |
Jon Lester | 14 | 17 | 39 | 16 |
18![]() |
Michael Wacha | 27 | 19 | 25 | 18 |
19![]() |
Hisashi Iwakuma | 26 | 15 | 23 | 26 |
20 | Jordan Zimmermann | 19 | 41 | 15 | 17 |
21 | James Shields | 21 | 29 | 20 | 27 |
22 | Alex Cobb | 35 | 16 | 22 | 25 |
23 | Hyun-Jin Ryu | 32 | 20 | 27 | 19 |
24 | Jeff Samardzija | 23 | 21 | 32 | 23 |
25![]() |
Justin Verlander | 11 | 57 | 14 | 24 |
26![]() |
Cliff Lee | 16 | 66 | 13 | 14 |
27 | Sonny Gray | 37 | 27 | 26 | 21 |
28 | Jered Weaver | 28 | 31 | 19 | 34 |
29 | Doug Fister | 24 | 24 | 34 | 30 |
30 | Gio Gonzalez | 42 | 25 | 18 | 32 |
31![]() |
Ian Kennedy | 18 | 36 | 42 | 29 |
32 | Mike Minor | 30 | 23 | 44 | 33 |
33![]() |
Scott Kazmir | 45 | 28 | 24 | 35 |
34![]() |
C.J. Wilson | 25 | 37 | 35 | 39 |
35 | Homer Bailey | 34 | 56 | 17 | 31 |
36![]() |
John Lackey | 29 | 33 | 41 | 42 |
37![]() |
Matt Cain | 40 | 40 | 31 | 40 |
38 | Andrew Cashner | 38 | 38 | 47 | 36 |
39 | Gerrit Cole | 53 | 34 | 50 | 28 |
40![]() |
Ervin Santana | 31 | 64 | 36 | 37 |
41 | Shelby Miller | 39 | 68 | 43 | 41 |
42 | Hiroki Kuroda | 44 | 74 | 29 | 47 |
43 | Dan Haren | 47 | 44 | 52 | 51 |
44 | Lance Lynn | 36 | 77 | 33 | 49 |
45 | Tim Hudson | 54 | 45 | 53 | 43 |
46![]() |
Kyle Lohse | 60 | 30 | 56 | 53 |
47![]() |
Mat Latos | 101 | 17 | 59 | 41 |
48![]() |
Dallas Keuchel | 105 | 26 | 51 | 38 |
49![]() |
Nathan Eovaldi | 86 | 35 | 55 | 48 |
50![]() |
Zack Wheeler | 48 | 55 | 71 | 52 |
51 | Marco Estrada | 80 | 43 | 46 | 59 |
52![]() |
Chris Archer | 52 | 51 | 72 | 54 |
53![]() |
Jaime Garcia | 66 | 48 | 48 | 68 |
54 | Francisco Liriano | 22 | 92 | 49 | 72 |
55 | Rick Porcello | 68 | 52 | 58 | 57 |
56![]() |
Jesse Chavez | 81 | 32 | 82 | 45 |
57 | Matt Garza | 62 | 69 | 40 | 71 |
58 | Justin Masterson | 41 | 78 | 54 | 70 |
59![]() |
Tyson Ross | 76 | 47 | 60 | 61 |
60![]() |
Garrett Richards | 79 | 53 | 68 | 44 |
61![]() |
R.A. Dickey | 51 | 84 | 30 | 81 |
62 | Jose Quintana | 61 | 65 | 65 | 55 |
63 | Tim Lincecum | 43 | 80 | 45 | 83 |
64![]() |
Phil Hughes | 71 | 49 | 74 | 58 |
65![]() |
Drew Hutchison | 97 | 42 | 67 | 50 |
66![]() |
Yordano Ventura | 85 | 59 | 75 | 46 |
67![]() |
Josh Beckett | 95 | 76 | 37 | 62 |
68![]() |
Jason Hammel | 73 | 61 | 63 | 74 |
69 | Jon Niese | 75 | 54 | 73 | 76 |
70 | Drew Smyly | 72 | 91 | 66 | 60 |
71![]() |
Tyler Skaggs | 58 | 94 | 70 | 69 |
72![]() |
A.J. Burnett | 57 | 85 | 79 | 73 |
73![]() |
Gavin Floyd | 87 | 62 | 61 | 86 |
74 | Yovani Gallardo | 59 | 86 | 59 | 93 |
75 | Ubaldo Jimenez | 49 | 79 | 84 | 95 |
76![]() |
Collin McHugh | 135 | 39 | 78 | 56 |
77![]() |
Wily Peralta | 116 | 50 | 81 | 65 |
78![]() |
Tommy Milone | 63 | 88 | 87 | 84 |
79![]() |
Tanner Roark | 84 | 71 | 77 | 91 |
80![]() |
Aaron Harang | 83 | 58 | 94 | 89 |
81![]() |
Roenis Elias | 103 | 60 | 95 | 67 |
82 | Mike Leake | 74 | 63 | 121 | 75 |
83 | Travis Wood | 67 | 87 | 105 | 77 |
84 | Wade Miley | 55 | 97 | 88 | 99 |
85 | Mark Buehrle | 92 | 46 | 113 | 90 |
86 | Bartolo Colon | 56 | 73 | 103 | 111 |
87![]() |
Marcus Stroman | 89 | 89 | 76 | 98 |
88 | Wei-Yin Chen | 64 | 83 | 89 | 117 |
89![]() |
Drew Pomeranz | 99 | 95 | 97 | 63 |
90 | Brandon McCarthy | 77 | 135 | 57 | 87 |
91![]() |
Tony Cingrani | 46 | 126 | 101 | 94 |
92 | Jason Vargas | 98 | 82 | 110 | 78 |
93![]() |
Jake Peavy | 69 | 147 | 62 | 92 |
94![]() |
Trevor Bauer | 151 | 72 | 69 | 79 |
95 | Taijuan Walker | 90 | 70 | 119 | 101 |
96![]() |
Chris Tillman | 78 | 102 | 85 | 118 |
97![]() |
CC Sabathia | 50 | 111 | 115 | 109 |
98 | Henderson Alvarez | 104 | 75 | 109 | 104 |
99 | Dillon Gee | 132 | 131 | 64 | 66 |
100 | Charlie Morton | 100 | 108 | 80 | 110 |
101![]() |
Ryan Vogelsong | 115 | 67 | 96 | 122 |
102 | Derek Holland | 82 | 110 | 128 | 88 |
103![]() |
Jake Odorizzi | 94 | 119 | 92 | 106 |
104 | Kevin Gausman | 118 | 113 | 91 | 97 |
105![]() |
Chase Whitley | 151 | 114 | 90 | 64 |
106 | Miguel Gonzalez | 96 | 99 | 106 | 127 |
107 | Bud Norris | 112 | 98 | 107 | 113 |
108 | Edwin Jackson | 70 | 117 | 118 | 126 |
109![]() |
Chase Anderson | 145 | 106 | 100 | 80 |
110![]() |
Jorge de la Rosa | 125 | 104 | 83 | 120 |
111![]() |
Josh Tomlin | 120 | 100 | 111 | 114 |
112![]() |
Danny Duffy | 133 | 96 | 133 | 85 |
113 | Jenrry Mejia | 65 | 151 | 151 | 96 |
114![]() |
Rubby de la Rosa | 151 | 127 | 93 | 103 |
115![]() |
Jake Arrieta | 108 | 116 | 138 | 112 |
116![]() |
Ricky Nolasco | 102 | 144 | 86 | 143 |
117 | Bronson Arroyo | 109 | 123 | 99 | 144 |
118![]() |
Josh Collmenter | 93 | 109 | 151 | 125 |
119![]() |
David Phelps | 140 | 81 | 131 | 132 |
120![]() |
Andrew Heaney | 123 | 105 | 151 | 107 |
121 | James Paxton | 147 | 146 | 112 | 82 |
122![]() |
Edinson Volquez | 128 | 122 | 116 | 124 |
123![]() |
Alex Meyer | 91 | 150 | 151 | 100 |
124 | Felix Doubront | 114 | 129 | 122 | 128 |
125![]() |
Jacob deGrom | 149 | 134 | 102 | 108 |
126![]() |
Robbie Erlin | 107 | 137 | 151 | 105 |
127![]() |
Rafael Montero | 106 | 125 | 151 | 121 |
128![]() |
Alfredo Simon | 131 | 93 | 134 | 146 |
129![]() |
Michael Pineda | 146 | 138 | 104 | 116 |
130![]() |
Danny Salazar | 101 | 151 | 151 | 102 |
131 | Erik Bedard | 138 | 139 | 98 | 131 |
132 | Yusmeiro Petit | 88 | 151 | 151 | 119 |
133 | Kyle Kendrick | 141 | 103 | 123 | 151 |
134 | Chris Young | 151 | 107 | 125 | 137 |
135 | Scott Feldman | 129 | 133 | 108 | 150 |
136 | Clay Buchholz | 126 | 151 | 114 | 130 |
137 | Zach McAllister | 121 | 132 | 120 | 149 |
138 | Eric Stults | 119 | 151 | 126 | 129 |
139 | Jordan Lyles | 151 | 90 | 151 | 135 |
140 | Colby Lewis | 124 | 142 | 139 | 123 |
141 | Juan Nicasio | 136 | 101 | 140 | 151 |
142![]() |
Jhoulys Chacin | 130 | 124 | 130 | 151 |
143 | Kyle Gibson | 151 | 136 | 135 | 115 |
144 | Jarred Cosart | 151 | 115 | 137 | 134 |
145 | Brandon Workman | 142 | 120 | 151 | 133 |
146 | Jeff Locke | 111 | 151 | 136 | 151 |
147 | Bruce Chen | 127 | 151 | 127 | 151 |
148![]() |
Trevor Cahill | 110 | 151 | 151 | 145 |
149 | Roberto Hernandez | 139 | 151 | 117 | 151 |
150 | Tom Koehler | 151 | 112 | 144 | 151 |
151 | Jeremy Guthrie | 151 | 118 | 141 | 151 |
152 | Noah Syndergaard | 151 | 121 | 151 | 139 |
153 | J.A. Happ | 137 | 151 | 129 | 151 |
154 | Randy Wolf | 134 | 140 | 151 | 151 |
155 | Jimmy Nelson | 151 | 141 | 151 | 136 |
156 | Nicholas Martinez | 151 | 130 | 151 | 147 |
157![]() |
Brett Anderson | 150 | 128 | 151 | 151 |
158 | Archie Bradley | 151 | 149 | 151 | 141 |
Ranked by one analyst: John Danks, Hector Santiago, Brad Peacock, Kevin Correia, Franklin Morales, Carlos Villanueva, Carlos Carrasco, Tim Stauffer, Matt Shoemaker, Jonathan Gray, Matt Wisler, Joe Kelly, Brandon Cumpton, T.J. House, Tyler Chatwood, Eddie Butler, and Allen Webster.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
Mike has Lee-13, Verlander-14,Gio -18,Dickey-30 and Tehran-38? What 5 cats is he using?
Rest of season rankings. What a pitcher’s current ERA is means nothing to me when projecting his ERA going forward. I focus on the underlying skills and career history.
It seems odd to me that you think Dickey will perform better than Teheran, though. I get that Teheran’s ERA should probably go up, but it doesn’t seem like Dickey has many advantages over Teheran at this point in their respective careers. What did I miss? (not trying to be snarky here, just trying to learn as much as possible from you guys).
That just seems in large part stupid. Doesn’t his past ERA this season make up some of his career history and isn’t it a glimpse of his current skill set to some degree? And please, save the small sample size argument.
I wouldn’t say it was stupid (he had an outstanding run for a couple years, after all), but it’s hard to ignore that Teheran’s been fantastic ever since the end of April ’13. He’s still a young, developing pitcher, and has the pedigree to support the steps forward he’s taken since ’12. I mean, Dickey’s rise to success was so striking because of it’s improbability. He had a long history as a mediocre pitcher before riding a circus pitch to an incredible three-year run… and now he’s on the verge of hitting 40 and has seen his control worsen for the 2nd straight year. I just don’t get it. The blossoming 23-yr old former top-prospect seems like the obvious pick here.
Respectfully, I don’t really see the appeal of Dickey. He’s basically been a mediocre fantasy pitcher since arriving in Toronto; his past success came in a very different run scoring environment. (And now he’s 39, too.) He has a 4.20 ERA and 4.55 FIP so far in 2014, after posting a 4.21 ERA and 4.58 FIP last year. I think that’s just the reality of what he is in the AL East.
Agreed, Ace.
Teheran has been good, but he has just over 300 career innings with roughly a 3.00 ERA but with a league-average FIP (3.79) and xFIP (3.88). His strikeout rate is just league average, which isn’t a problem in itself, but without the strikeouts to fall back on, you’re really relying on him to continue to outpace his peripherals by a significant margin in order for him to be a top-15-20 pitcher the rest of the season.
Last point – among qualified pitchers, Teheran ranks 45th in FIP, 59th in xFIP, 47th in SIERA, and 41st in K%. Don’t think it’s that crazy to rank him in the 30s.
Oh yea, Matthew, I’m not saying Teheran’s placement is crazy, and I didn’t mean to pick on Mike, just didn’t see how he’d be ranked lower than Dickey. Honestly, Mike seems to be right 9/10 times (he’s steered my fantasy team in the right direction many times), so that’s really the only reason I wanted to ask about his thoughts on Dickey over Teheran. I might not have thought much about it if it was anyone else.
But, I mean Dickey had over 400 ‘meh’ innings before he went on a tear with the Mets, no? If the degradation in control of his knuckler continues the trend of the past year and half, there’s lots and lots of data to suggest he doesn’t have the stuff to make up for it. Just wondering what it was that made him think he’d go back to producing like he did in 2012.
I might try and trade Teheran for Dickey and change if there’s something there.