RotoGraphs Audio: The Sleeper and the Bust 8/8/13
Episode 48
Today’s episode of The Sleeper and the Bust stars yours truly and features RotoGraphs editor Eno Sarris. We discuss a trio of youngsters and another bullpen in flux.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @mikepodhorzer or @enosarris on Twitter and tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.
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Intro by DJ Sinton (no, contrary to popular belief, I do not moonlight as a rap star)
Approximately 47 min of joyous analysis.
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Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
Not worried about wins, I’m going for ratios. I’ve got to go with Salazar over Samardzija at this point, don’t I? Salazar is in Min and in Oak next week, so even if he’s a one week rental, those are some tasty matchups.
Are you just asking about who to start for next week?
That, and is Salazar/potential streamers if/when Salazar is shut down a better bet in a 10 team league than Samardzija the rest of the way?
Tough question. I’m a pretty big Samardzija fan and we need to remember that Salazar is still a rookie with just 2 starts under his belt. Salazar has clearly displayed the potential to be better, but I have to go with Samardzija. Pitching in the NL helps also of course.
Does Samardzija’s months-long climbing contact rate (wonderfully exhibited by today’s 0 swinging strikes performance) sway your opinion on him?
Where are you finding his monthly contact rate splits? I see he had a SwStk% drought from June to July in the game logs, but it has since rebounded.
I look at the Cubs’ team page, filter to show the pitchers, then click plate discipline, then look at each month under the splits column.
Since the start of May, Samardzija has a near 80% contact rate, contrasted with an April mark of 71.5% and a 2012 clip of 74.8%
Yeah this is the roundabout way, wish the plate discipline metrics were just on each player’s splits page. I didn’t watch today’s game, but his velocity was down the previous two. I try not to put too much stock into monthly pitcher splits unless there is a clear degradation of stuff, such as velocity loss or something. If the velocity was down again this game, we have a problem.