RotoGraphs Audio: The Sleeper and the Bust 10/08/2014
Episode 173
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!
RotoGraphs writer Zach Sanders and Nicholas Minnix discuss:
Alex Rios; Adam Wainwright; Yasiel Puig; Bryce Harper; Shelby Miller; and, right in Zach’s wheelhouse, the end-of-season catcher rankings, which went up at the beginning of this week.
As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions so that we may answer them in our next episode.
You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.
Thanks to Ian Miller, aka Teen Archer, for the intro/outro music. Approximately 53 minutes of joyous analysis.
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Nicholas Minnix oversaw baseball content for six years at KFFL, where he held the loose title of Managing Editor for seven and a half before he joined FanGraphs. He played in both Tout Wars and LABR from 2010 through 2014. Follow him on Twitter @NicholasMinnix.
Maybe Zach can explain this…
If i take the top 200 batters by ab’s for 2014, the batting average of the group is .267. If I take for example, Jose Altuve (.341 avg over 660 abs), his z-score for batting avg comes out somewhere near 3.2.
To achieve a z-score equivalent of 3.2 for Stolen Bases, one would have needed to swipe 44 (using same group of players as used above).
So using the above assumptions, 44 sbs = .341 avg over 660 ab’s.
44 sb’s would conservatively represent about 22% of what a team would need to win sb’s in a 12 team league (im assuming 200 gets you there, that may be high).
Altuves 660 abs would represent somewhere near 11% of the total AB’s your team might accumulate (i assumed 11 total batter spots, which is probably light unless your talking about yahoo standard leagues, so even the 11% is probably high). His .341 avg over those ab’s is more or less valuable depending on the batting avg of the balance of your team, but nonetheless stays somewhere between 10-13% of total contribution to the category.
Based on this, it seems as though the z-score method overvalues a rate stat such as avg. So why do you use this method versus others?
You’re talking about roto, so standings gain points would be more appropriate…
Maybe they’ll cover in the podcast but I think part of the answer to your question is that rate stats like AVG are actually weighted by ABs or PAs in this method to convert them into counting stats.
Yep..i already did that.
I think SGP’s are more appropriate.
BTW – his rankings disclaimer reads –
The players were ranked based on their 2014 production, using the evaluation system explained and updated on this site some time ago. The valuations are built for $260 budgets and standard 5×5 roto fantasy leagues, where only one catcher is started. Players are listed only at their primary positions from 2014.
Ah interesting, for some reason I thought it was pitched based on H2H.
Anyway, you raise a good question but I think it’s all about performance relative to mean production isn’t it? In your example, even if the rest of your team hits .263 over 5340 at-bats, and Altuve hits .342 over 660 at-bats (6000 total AB), he’s 100% responsible for the performance above the mean, and the team ends up hitting .2716. Just using one of my 2014 roto leagues for reference, that’s good enough for 2nd place.
I’m throwing an odd request to talk about: Cameron Maybin.
He is my next Edwin Jackson. I see the pedigree.I saw the improvements.I see the potential .270/15/30 season. But health is a concern.He was AWFUL in 1/2 a season. But not that much is different. I can keep everyone and don’t want to throw him back and for him to get healthy and break out. But betting on a 28 year old is silly, right?
Nicholas – any chance you could give my question a minute? Would appreciate other’s views. Zach’s rankings are thrown around in nearly every article posted lately, and unless i’ve missed it, they’re typically a black box (again, i may have missed, but didnt think he posted his calcs).
In my view, theres something intuitively wrong with z-score for dollar valuations, though im not smart enough to properly articulate it. I think the example above gets to the heart of the issue, which is that rate stats are likely misrepresented given their relative contribution.
Hi Guys,
I’m wondering what your thoughts are on Soler as a keeper. He seems like a possible sell high guy with his inflated BABIP and low LD%, but it wasn’t exactly a large sample either. I have him in a deep points/dynasty league, but I’m guessing I could get a pretty decent return as well.