Roto Riteup: September 29, 2018
We just hit dingers here at the Roto Riteup.
FIVE straight games with homer.@ddahl21 is on ?. #SeptemberBaseball pic.twitter.com/pvbTGCLru6
— MLB (@MLB) September 29, 2018
On the Agenda:
1. Various News and Notes
2. Streaming Pitchers
Various News and Notes
Kyle Freeland gave up 11 hits to the Nationals on Friday, but it only resulted in two runs allowed to go along with one walk and four strikeouts.
Kyle Freeland will finish this season with the lowest ERA in Rockies history, at 2.85…
— Nick Groke (@nickgroke) September 29, 2018
This has been a fabulous season for the southpaw, one that will finish with him sitting among the top-20 starting pitchers in fantasy. His GB% (46) also ranks among the top-20 – joining both of his teammates Jon Gray and German Marquez in that category. His xFIP sits at 4.22, which correlates with his luck in both LOB% and BABIP. He did start throwing his mediocre change-up more this season which helped keep hitters off-balance, but there’s obvious concerns with him repeating this in 2019. His K% (20) doesn’t stand to increase next season based on his 9% SwStr, but he did post 11% marks in that metric each of the last two months meaning there could be a few more strikeouts if it were to roll over into next year. All-in-all it’s a good time for a few of the Rockies starters when it comes to valuating them for 2019, but Freeland is not this good, and won’t keep this up. In the 2 Early Mocks, German Marquez was the first Rockies starter selected – going 115th overall on average. Freeland sat in the 150 range, with Gray rounding it out at 180th overall. At those specific costs I like Marquez the most, but Gray presents a decent bargain based on his skills. Freeland was barely drafted in most formats heading into 2018, but his skillset makes him a viable back-end starter for mixed leagues and his results from this season will push him much higher.
My fantasy baseball obsession – David Dahl – hit a home run in his fifth-straight game against the Nationals on Friday. Sometimes in life, we can have nice things – even if it’s for a little while. These are the moments we treasure, especially if we’re counting on him to produce in the season’s final moments.
Lucas Giolito will finish the 2018 season with the worst ERA among qualified starters (6.13).
On Friday, the #WhiteSox fell to 14-18 in Lucas Giolito’s starts this season.
Giolito will finish the year with 10 wins and an MLB-worst 6.13 ERA.
Jacob deGrom has an #MLB-best 1.70 ERA, 10 wins, and the #Mets went 14-18 in his starts. pic.twitter.com/LBiPekGTTM
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) September 29, 2018
He allowed seven runs in 1.1 IP against the Twins on Friday after coming into the outing with a 3.28 ERA and 1.34 WHIP over four starts (25 IP) against them this season. Giolito essentially had one good month (August), where he compiled a 3.86 ERA and 1.02 WHIP to go along with a 40/12 K:BB over 37 IP (five starts). Outside of that month it was a miserable first full major league season filled with substandard control and command. His name value alone will carry some weight in deep leagues and AL-Only formats heading into 2019, but we need to see some tangible progress before he can be considered fantasy viable.
Mike Foltynewicz held the Phillies to one run over five innings to go along with nine strikeouts and one walk en route to 13th victory of the year.
“It’s a pretty cool accomplishment.”
Say hello to Mike Foltynewicz, the ONLY pitcher in @Braves history with 200 or more strikeouts in a season and an opponent’s average below .200.#Braves | #ChopOn pic.twitter.com/taizatTA2f
— FOX Sports: Braves (@FOXSportsBraves) September 29, 2018
What a turnaround for 26-year old. He’ll end the year with a 2.85 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 202/68 K:BB over 183 IP. While he’s definitely more of a 3.50-3.80 ERA guy, his strikeout numbers aren’t a fluke, his BB% should stay relatively the same, and he’s doing a better job of limiting home runs. He finishes right in front of Kyle Freeland on the ESPN Player Rater, and is currently going just inside the top-100 in the 2 Early Mocks.
Just for the sake of helping out those fantasy owners that are looking for some possible offense in the season’s final days – here’s the top players over the last seven days that are less than 30% owned in ESPN leagues:
Christian Yelich – I’m kidding!
Renato Nunez – He’s not playing every day but he has a homer in three of-his-last five starts and is slashing .319/.324/.580 in September.
Victor Robles – Now this is somebody that should be getting some 2019 draft buzz (ahem, not Adalberto Mondesi). Robles has a homer and/or a steal in three-straight starts. He potentially could be sat in Colorado, but he’s worth playing the next two days if he gets the nod.
Greg Allen – Hitting .311/.426/.422 over 45 AB this month and has six stolen bases over the last week. If you need steals he’s your man.
Streaming Pitchers
Pitchers for Today: Steven Matz vs MIA, Jacob Nix vs ARI, Ryan Borucki vs TAM
None of these guys present much upside, but I believe they’re fairly safe options that should be available in most formats (maybe not Matz).
High-Risk Options: Trevor Richards at NYM
Mets are awful at home and Richards is coming off a stellar outing against the Reds.
Pitchers for Tomorrow: Joey Lucchesi vs ARI, Brett Anderson at LAA, Mike Leake vs TEX
Arizona and Texas have been awful this month offensively. Anderson has allowed two runs in 11.2 IP against the Angels over two starts against them. Lucchesi hasn’t had the best results against the Diamondbacks this season, but he did fair well in his last start against them and has been on a decent run recently overall.
High-Risk Option: Dylan Covey at MIN
This is the pure definition of high risk. Covey has held Cleveland scoreless over two straight starts and faces a Twins offense that’s sitting league-average overall for the month. This is only if you’re in a really tough situation.
Quick Comment
This is the last Roto Riteup I’ll be doing this season and I wanted to say a couple of things. It’s truly been an honor contributing to this column a couple of times a week and helping readers of this amazing site be able to wake up and get some fun fantasy related info. I appreciate all of you who have taken the time to read and I hope it led to helping you in your leagues. I’ll strive for things to be even better on my end next year, but it’s you all who truly make this fun and I want to thank you for your support of the column. Good luck the rest of the season and I hope you all have a great time watching the playoffs and offseason unfold. If anyone ever wants to connect with me outside of this platform my twitter handle is @MikeWernerFWFB. Thanks again everyone for an amazing season!
Fantasy Baseball and Tampa Bay Rays enthusiast. Restaurant manager by day, fantasy analyst by night. Contributor to Rotographs, Baseball HQ, Fantasy Pros, and co-owner of Friends with Fantasy Benefits. Follow me @MikeWernerFWFB.
I have read every single one. Thank you.
Thank you.
it’s been great. see my comments in yesterday’s post!
Much appreciated Kevin.
late breaking news: roenis elias will start in place of mike leake tomorrow
I’d only play him in a pinch.
Hey, I just noticed that Gio Gonzalez is available in my league and starting vs. the Tigers tomorrow — worth picking up?
Yes! Pick him up.
The issue with Gio is the same for every starter in any of the games with playoff implications: how many innings we will he be allowed to throw? The Tigers are a great matchup but the Brewers MUST have this game. Unless they pile up a big lead, my guess would be that Gio doesn’t go 5
Mike……Don’t think I’ve missed many of your columns. Thanks for the analysis and insight. Enjoy the off-season!
(P.S……And damn, am I miffed that I dropped Dahl last winter!)
Not to brag, but I woke up at 430am (when my league rolls over to the current day) on Wednesday to drop Greinke (last start was Wednesday, roster change takes effect Thursday) and pick up Dahl. I’ve caught the last two of this 5 in a row homer days! OK, that was bragging.
Well, David Dahl is amazing so.
Thanks for the kind words!
Roto Riteup has enabled me to find some very underrated studs this season, and my success this year in Fantasy is definitely thanks in no small part to your guys’ tireless and insightful advice. Thanks for everything and see you next year!
Anytime! Thanks for reading and glad it helped!
Nice write up. Was the Mondesi line a joke?
Kind of. I wrote him up as a pick-up for the stretch run a couple of weeks ago and he’s now going top-75 in the 2 Early Mock Drafts. I’m of the opinion that he’s not a good enough hitter to make it, but others obviously feel differently. He could be great next season and I fully reserve the right to change my opinion over the off-season, but as of now I think the 2019 hype on him is a bit extreme.
I see, and I realize I commented something along the same lines yday. I don’t think he will be available at pick 74 anywhere next year. Will be like pick 40 to 50ish, which is too rich. But the Royals play their starters every single game basically, and now that he has the roll, he won’t get sent down. He is a crazy on the bases,and their coach (at least as of now) will let him run wild.
The power is real too it seems as statcast thinks he is at least average and the coach says he puts on better power displays in bp than Moosetacos did. Obv the approach leaves a lot to be desired, but they are going to let him run free next year, and every time merrifield is on 2nd when he is on first he will get the free back half of a double steal since Merri steals 3rd nearly every chance he gets.
Clearly you can’t prorate guys stats, but if you could….
Edit: Obv you cannot prorate, and that was meant as a joke because his prorated Lindor plate appearance line would be .280 34hrs 78sbs, 88 rbis, and 120 runs, so ya know, the 3rd most valuable player in baseball:)
I honestly agree with a lot of that argument. His downside is my main issue since players with an awful approach tend to not stick around in the starting lineup. I don’t think Yost will be back either which puts a dent in things. However, I can easily see this kid hitting .265 with 20 HR and 40 SB and not one shred of me would be surprised. He’s going to be a truly controversial and polarizing player heading into next season as I know many people who are looking at him as a fringe major leaguer, and a lot of people who consider him at top-50 player based on skill set for fantasy alone. He’s definitely gets docked in points leagues, but in H2H categories and Roto he has the potential to be a top-20 player and that I suppose is worth a top-70 ish pick. It’s just really hard for me to pull the trigger on a player that high when he can’t control the strike zone well.