Roto Riteup: September 17, 2016
Saturday in the park, we’re pretty sure it wasn’t the Fourth of July because that was on a Monday this year.
On the agenda:
1. Various News and Notes
2. Streaming Pitcher Options
Various News and Notes
Keon Broxton’s season is likely over, as he fractured his wrist while slamming into the hellish ivy at Wrigley field. Broxton ends the year with a .242 average, nine homers, and 23 homers over 244 plate appearances. Broxton has all the raw ability you could hope for, but he still struck out over a third of the time. Broxton’s patience makes him far more valuable in OBP leagues next year, and he’ll be a darling in the middle rounds of standard leagues, as everyone wants to find the next 20/40 guy.
Alex Bregman’s excellent rookie campaign is being slowed by a hamstring injury, as he’ll missed the last couple games in Seattle after hurting himself earlier this week. While he started out a bit slow, Breggers has hit over .300 with eight homers in his past 150 plate appearances. I would still like to see Bregman’s strikeout rate come down by about four percentage points, but so far so good for the former second overall pick.
For being a top prospect and supposedly ready for the big leagues, boy has Jose Berrios been bad. In 12 starts the rookie has a 8.88 ERA and has allowed 12 homers in less than 50 innings. Berrios, who walked less than five percent of the batters he faced in AAA last year, has more than doubled that rate in the majors. Suck it, Twins.
Over the past 12 months or so, I have not been shy expressing concern about Trea Turner’s overall profile, namely his strikeout rate. However, there’s good news a-brewin’: since mid-August, Turner’s K-rate is a respectable 17%! Sure, his BABIP is still over .400 and that’s not going to stick, but at the very least he’s giving himself a chance by putting the ball in play.
Streaming Pitcher Options
If you enjoy streaming pitchers or play DFS, tune into the Roto Riteup for recommendations each and every day.
A pitcher for today: Trevor Williams at CIN (Brandon Finnegan)
Williams is a pretty generic pitcher, but he’s facing a largely generic lineup.
A pitcher for tomorrow: Ivan Nova at CIN (Keyvius Sampson)
Let’s pick on the Reds, but Nova’s also been excellent since working with Ray Searage and the Pirates.
Zach is the creator and co-author of RotoGraphs' Roto Riteup series, and RotoGraphs' second-longest tenured writer. You can follow him on twitter.
Finally, some good news for Trea Turner owners!
Last 28 days he’s the #2 ranked player in my CBS league behind only Brian Dozier.
Turner’s stats over that time:
.402
20 runs
7 HRs
14 RBIs
14 SB
Whole paragraph dedicated to Breggers, and a tongue and cheek luke warm acknowledgement of Trea Turner in the last paragraph. Meanwhile, in less than 24 hours Turner has done some serious bridgework to the tune of 3 HR, he’s stolen two bases and just keeps churning out top 10 production. Give the man his due!
Looks like Bregman done for the season….
Nine homers AND 23 homers for Broxton? That’s like. At least thirty homers.
Braxton has a .373 BABIP. While he’s run very high BABIPs in the minors, how comfortable should we be that it’s sustainable at the major league level?
He’s crazy fast and has a very good hard hit rate. .330 seems achievable so the K’s will have to come down or he’s gonna hit .215
Broxton’s xBABIP is .323 and his xBACON is .371. His batted ball profile is elite, but you are right that his BABIP should be expected to come down. However, even factoring in this expected regression, his xAVG still sits at .229 which is not far off his current .242 AVG.
The source of the above stats comes from the Google doc contained within this article: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/a-new-babip-for-a-statcast-era/
Broxton should be more valuable for owners in leagues using OBP rather than AVG because of his strong walk-rate.