Roto Riteup — Presented By DraftKings: July 25, 2014
Today marks the 17th anniversary of the film “Air Force One.” Linked is the hijacking scene, one of the most intense action sequences nine-year-old me had ever seen. My parents never would have let me watch this at such a young age, but I have a pretty cool uncle.
On today’s agenda:
1. They see em Stroman, they waiting
2. Jesse Hahn to start today
3. Shane Victorino is hitting
4. The daily five
They see em Stroman, they waiting
Awkwardly shoe-horned pop culture references from 2006 aside, Marcus Stroman rolled opposing batters yet again yesterday, but many fantasy owners have largely failed to take note. I touched on Stroman a bit in a previous edition of these digital pages seven weeks ago and much of what I mentioned before remains true. He is still posting a ground ball rate north of 50% and I love his pedigree. The Toronto Blue Jays first round pick from the 2012 draft is sporting 7.89 K/9 against a 2.00 BB/9. His 3.21 ERA/3.11 FIP/3.37 xFIP is excellent and while his 0.67 HR/9 rate is most likely going to go up, Stroman still makes for an attractive fantasy option. He can be grabbed in just 20% of CBS formats but is available in 65% of Yahoo! formats and 85% of ESPN leagues. It’s almost like they see him throwin, they waitin, trying to catch Stroman K-ing.
Jesse Hahn to start today
While on the topic of starting pitchers who are available, Hahn has been confirmed as today’s starter for the San Diego Padres. He was sent down to the minors to keep on schedule and now he’s back with the big league club. This will be his first start of the back half of the season and let us hope it mirrors the front half. Hahn owns an impressive 2.21 ERA/2.80 FIP/2.94 xFIP to go with an even more impressive 10.40 K/9. His 3.54 BB/9 isn’t the prettiest thing to look at but when one fans over a batter per inning pitched, I’m willing to bend on the walk rate. Hahn has posted an 11.4% swinging strike rate through seven starts (40.2 innings pitched) a rate that places him in the top 15 starters in baseball (minimum 40 IP). On top of tons of whiffs and subsequent strikeouts, Hahn has burns worms at 50% clip thus far and his minor league batted ball info (courtesy of Minor League Central) paints him as a ground ball pitcher as well. Factor in a favorable home park and you have yourself one heck of a fantasy starter. I’m buying Hahn where I can. One can pick him up in 25% of CBS formats, 40% of ESPN leagues and 50% of Yahoo! leagues.
Shane Victorino is hitting
Since returning from the disabled list Victorino has posted a five game hitting streak and has eight hits (plus one walk) during that time frame. He still owns a rather poor .273/.305/.373 line but most of the badness can be credited to the month of May. One month of terrible hitting —Victorino hit for a 55 wRC+ — and then being placed on the 15-day DL with initial hamstring strain followed by a setback due to back pain tends to hurt ones batting line. Two days ago Victorino hit leadoff and yesterday he hit second. Hopefully he’ll continue to see plenty of plate appearances near the top of the lineup to maximize his potential on fantasy rosters. Both ZiPS and Steamer project him to hit approximately .270 and he has 10+ steal upside if his hamstring allows it. The Red Sox seem to be playing it safe with his playing time — he sat out one game already post All-Stare break — let alone his running game so we’ll what kind of steal opportunities he is given. Even still, if you’re looking for batting average help then Victorino offers AVG, albeit it somewhat empty. He is available in 50% of both ESPN and Yahoo! formats and 40% of CBS leagues.
The daily five
Starting pitcher: Jesse Hahn — $9,100
I’m doubling down on Hahn today. He will be at home on the road against the Atlanta Braves and their 26th ranked 86 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers.
Starting pitcher: Jason Hammel — $7,700
This isn’t just a homer pick from an A’s fan. The right-handed Hammel should have a strong outing today in Texas. The Rangers have hit a 27th ranked 85 wRC+ against righties.
Infielder: John Jaso — $4,100
Facing the right-hander Jerome Williams, Jaso should give an offensive show from the left side of the plate in Texas today.
Outfielder: Josh Willingham — $4,300
Willingham will hold the platoon advantage over John Danks today.
Other hitter: Jose Altuve — $5,100
The Houston Astros have hit left-handed pitchers at the third best clip in baseball with a 115 wRC+ against southpaws. Altuve in particular blasts lefties to the tune of a .423/.448/.550 rate thus far.
Remaining budget: $19,700
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You can catch David spouting off about baseball, soccer, esports and other things by following him on twitter, @davidwiers.
Hahn will be pitching on the road, not at home.
Well that is weird…not sure how I whiffed on that. Updated, thanks!
Fun with arbitrary numbers;
Pablo Sandoval May 10; .332/10/.886
Panda gets no love any more.
I luv him.
For some reason it didn’t pick up some of the data.
Panda before May 11 = .175ish/2/.771 contact rate
Panda after May 10 above.
Never thought I’d see Chamillionaire and Rotographs linked…niiice. And picked Stroman up just in time for his start yesterday…also niiice.
Ha! Thank Pandora radio and their ability to play the most random songs under vaguely related channels.
Ah, don’t explain the joke. Just let it sit on its own. If you can unobtrusively link to the reference, fine. Explaining how clever (or dated, take your pick) you are is just cheesy.
I didn’t think anyone would even think twice on it if I didn’t take that sentence to explain it. I mean, that song is eight years old already!
Not to be a dick, but how can you recommend Hahn? Do you follow the actual betting line at all when setting a lineup?
The only pitcher with longer odds to win today is Gausman and Baltimore.
It’s absurd to pay $2000 extra for Hahn over Alex Wood, when Wood is a -150 favorite in the game. That just isn’t good strategy.
It’s similar to checking team totals/game totals before stacking a lineup. It would be irresponsible to stack a lineup with the lowest totaled game on the board.
No, I don’t follow betting lines at all. They are set by non-public means and carry subjective weight: the public perception and subsequent betting. The entire point of a betting line is to entice a gambler enough to lay down money.
Wood is a good pitcher and we all know San Diego isn’t good at batting, but I like the strikeouts Hahn offers. You cited being favored to win. In DK, a pitcher win is worth four points, nothing to sneeze at. That being said, a strikeout is worth two.
Hahn has a higher SwStr%, K% and K/9. The Padres and Braves against left and right-handed pitchers respectively are essentially a push in strikeout rate, though the Padres do strikeout a touch more against southpaws. I like what I’m seeing from Hahn enough to recommend him.
As for why recommended Hahn, I’m pretty sure I spent 200+ words about him. You should try reading my reasoning. Or stick to Vegas gambling lines.
Daaaaaaaaamm
Soooo,
How did that Wood pick work out for you…..Richard?
Any thoughts on Gregory Polanco? Do you see him turning it around soon or should I consider moving him to bolster my team in other areas? I have pretty solid OF depth, but Alexi Ramirez is my lone SS. He has given me pretty solid production, but has been pretty blah since June or so. I have been offered some SS for Polanco, but outside of Jed Lowrie they are all passable IMO. Lowrie would be a guy I could platoon with Alexi depending on who is hot/match ups.
Should I hold onto Polanco and hope he can get hot real quick or make the move? My trade deadline is coming up soon so Polanco would have to get really good, really fast for my to be able to flip him.
Given the offers I assume it is a redraft league.
I’m really high on Lowrie for the second half but I still think you could get more for Polanco than that. I’d dangle him but if you need SS help, Lowrie makes for an okay return in a redraft.
Well David, you are just very misinformed but carry on I guess.
Vegas lines are not set by any public perception and believing so is incredibly square an inaccurate. Vegas lines are set by numbers and metrics, similar to how the game of baseball was played. Lines are never set for the public, given that the majority of money wagered will be by non-public investors that have data as thorough as the data on this site and beyond.
It is absolutely comical and absurd, regardless of results, for you to discredit the betting line while giving daily fantasy advice. A win is only 4 points, sure, but a line factors in the strength of both starting pitchers. For you to say you don’t even look at lines, and then to chime in with advice, is irresponsible. For you to say that the point of a line is to entice a gambler is incredibly inaccurate and you are clueless on the topic. The lines are a market just as the stock market is a market. The more money invested, the more efficient the line becomes. Major sports have a much more efficient market. Baseball has more professional money gambling on it than any other sport; the only market more efficient in the gambling world is the NFL.
The fact that you can’t take constructive criticism and advice in regards to this topic doesn’t bode well for your future in writing or your future in daily fantasy. Team totals, O/U’s and the betting line should be three aspects every single daily fantasy player looks at before setting a line.
If you continue to ignore the betting market, which is the most efficient basis of evaluation in sports, you will not succeed. To each his own though.
Nice call on Hahn so far regardless, it will work out for you it looks like but as you know, that doesn’t make it sound advice. By the way, are we really assessing Hahn’s K-rate based on a few MLB starts? Alex Wood and Jesse Hahn will have nearly identical K-Rates once Hahn’s normalizes a bit; if we assume that he is closer to his MiLB numbers than his current MLB numbers.
I miss the days when trolls at least tried be funny.
I think my favorite part of this is the “you can’t take constructive criticism” bit. Come on, now you’re just grasping at straws. If you’ve any of my work here at RotoGraphs you couldn’t have failed to notice I engage with the comment section. I don’t expect everyone to agree with me and the comments are the place where people voice their disagreements. I try my best to address every single comment, be it positive or negative.
Since you were so kind to give me advice, you know, the whole “doesn’t bode well for your future in writing” let me return the favor:
Don’t open up a comment with “Not to be a dick…” and then proceed to act like one. Unless you’re Ricky Bobby and you think saying “With all due respect” is some sort of real-life get out of jail free card.
That film is great; I think I’ll watch it again.
Soooo,
What do you think Richard? Should we simply forget about David and the rest of the FG group and simply look at the betting line? I don’t know much about the line. Don’t they adjust it for betting patterns? How do they make their money? Do they charge a fee on your bet? So in the end don’t they simply want 50% of all betters to win and 50% to lose? Or if they know it’s Chicago against say, Cincinnati do they hedge knowing more Chicagoans will bet on the Chicago team? In the end, the sports book is really ENTICING the gambler to bet the way they want him to bet. Not all of them but most of them. If you’re smart you know this. If not….you’re just a dick. It’s the latter!
No they dont want even action. It’s basic math. Balancing your sheet limits your profits. If tne and market are efficient, moving off the correct number merely to bring in action on the other side strongly limits your hold. I can break it down further if you still don’t understand. I love that someone that is so clueless on the topic just said if I was smart I would know. Sportsbooks aren’t gambling. By shading a line, you are gambling and limiting your hold. Gambling is a market. Misprice a market and you will fail. Only underfunded books shade lines to even out action which is why they don’t succeed and will go bankrupt. Public money is irrelevant to a sportsbook.
David, I seem to do pretty well at daily fantasy and gambling. I read this column every day because I like to accumulate as much knowledge ad possible. You’re being ignorant by ignoring the lines in your daily fantasy league. How one doesn’tlook at team totals before stacking is beyond me. I llove that I’m considered a troll because I brought up a very common sense daily strategy that you seem to overlook.