Roto Riteup May 13, 2017
Matt Harvey returned after, you know, the usual supermodel drama we all deal with. After coming back from his suspension, Harvey allowed five runs and three balls were hit over the fence in five innings. He had a high K/9 rating during the outing, but that just left him at a 5.85 K/9 rating on the season.
He mentioned to ESPN following the game he got behind in the count and “left the ball in the middle of the plate.” He’s also not throwing a lot of first-pitch strikes which was very apparent Friday night in the loss to the Brewers.
On the Agenda
- News and Notes
- Gallo, Gallo, Gallo
- The Jeurys out
- Probable DFS Pitchers
News and Notes
–Hisashi Iwakuma is expected to miss 4-6 weeks with some right shoulder inflammation. He recently underwent an MRI that didn’t reveal any structural damage which is great news. The 36-year-old has an alright season under his belt thus far. In 31 innings, he’s posting a 5.45 SIERA with an increase in flyball rating (42.9%).
-The Yankees and Astros have postponed their matchup on Saturday. That game will be part of a doubleheader on Sunday. Luis Severino and Mike Fiers should get the starts for the initial game.
–Colby Rasmus is out of the lineup against the Tampa Bay Rays. The team is facing the Red Sox with Chris Sale starting on the bump.
–Chris Iannetta suffered a scary injury Friday night when he was hit in the face with a 93 mph fastball. He walked off, but was taken to a local hospital following the incident.
Gallo, Gallo, Gallo
Let’s talk exit velocity. (This is just an excuse for me to post a pretty picture).
Joey Gallo has been riding a hitting rollercoaster this season and he seems to be at a high at the moment. In the last ten games, he is hitting a .200/.263/.629 line with five home runs. He’s striking out a lot. Like a lot, a lot (52.6%). But that’s okay from the daily perspective. We love the power, and he has plenty of it. Those inconsistency patterns so far could be worrisome. He faces Sonny Gray at Arlington Saturday.
The Jeurys out
Jeurys Familia underwent surgery Friday to maintain a blood clot in his armpit area. There is a slight possibility he could be back before the end of the season, but at the moment the timetable is for him to be out several months this season, so don’t bank on it.
Addison Reed will be taking over responsibilities as the main closer.
Probable DFS Pitchers
Marcus Stroman vs. Seattle Mariners
Chris Sale vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Carlos Martinez vs Chicago Cubs
Trevor Cahill @ Chicago White Sox
Taijuan Walker vs Pittsburgh Pirates
A terrifying season under his belt!
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/siera/
Rating SIERA
Excellent 2.90
Great 3.25
Above Average 3.75
Average 3.90
Below Average 4.20
Poor 4.50
Awful 5.00
Ouch. That’s a pretty big miss.
I’ve come to enjoy reading these just to see how poorly written and inaccurate they are.
Not defending the author, but the general conclusion that Iwakuma is having an ‘alright’ season (so far) isn’t that far off base from a fantasy standpoint. He’s given you what you should have expected minus, a few wins. The SIERA is awful, which could be due to small sample size, declining skills, or pitching through injury. Like the link says, SIERA is just one factor to consider, which should not be used by itself to invalidate or confirm an opinion of a pitcher’s seasonal performance.
No wins? 12.5 K%? Bad ERA? His saving grace is a .220 BABIP and 80% LOB so far. What fantasy category has he been average or above in? He’s replacement level or worse in most formats.
What exactly where you expecting? He is 36 y.o. and wasn’t very good last year. He is beating his Steamer projections in both ERA and WHIP (probably due to a low BABIP). He is a few Ks down from his projections, but Steamer projections were for 6.1K/9 anyway. Lack of wins is not his fault. In 5 of his 6 starts, he’s gone 5-6 innings and allowed 3 or fewer runs in each. He is who he is.
My issue isn’t that Iwakuma is good, it’s just that he has been serviceable in 5 of his 6 starts…which is all anyone could have expected. Author says he has been “alright” (which is not incorrect) and gets jumped on. Seems unduly harsh to me. Just my opinion.
Missing point=ALRIGHT ISN’T A WORD
The author was criticized because she chose to point to two data points alone to support her contention that Iwakuma has been “alright”: a sky high SIERA of 5.45 and an increase in flyball rating (42.9%). The high SIERA is evidence against her assertion; the increase in fly ball rating seems to have as much to do with Iwakuma’s performance as the colors of the Mariners’ uniforms.
The author was criticized for her earlier roto-riteups because she made no use of statistics or analysis on a website that tried to distinguish itself on both measures. As of late, she has started to cite some advanced statistics, but as in the case with Iwakuma, in ways that demonstrate that she does not understand those stats or how to support a contention by citing evidence that actually supports the contention.
As for Iwakuma being serviceable, that depends on the context of the Fantasy league: Are strikeouts a category? How deep is the league? You make a reasonable argument that Iwakuma has been serviceable for a very deep league that doesn’t count strike outs: He has one awful start, two below-average starts and three good starts.
How deep is the league? Deep enough that Iwakuma was draftable. Deep enough that Bronson Arroyo is a suitable replacement. If Iwakuma was drafted in a shallow league or for Ks, I wouldn’t lay any of the blame for that on Iwakuma himself.
Colby Rasmus out of lineup. This is exactly the analysis I need out of my Roto Riteup…
I thought it was 2013 when I saw Colby Rasmus and Iwakuma
Come on! Give the author some credit — “The Jeurys out” is a solid line.
Gallo’s strikeout percentage is 39.7% on the season and 52.6% over the past ten, but both are much better than his 63.3% from last season.
Who knows if Gallo will ever hit for average and he will probably always strikeout more than most, but he hasn’t even reached 300 plate appearances at the major league level yet.
Joey Gallo is worth talking about, I would have linked to Henry’s article from last week called, Who Most Embodies the Three True Outcomes?
The answer is Joey Gallo and the article is great, informative.
Of course Joey Gallo is worth talking about — but only if the author adds something new that hasn’t already been written and isn’t already widely understood be even the most casual fan..
Fangraphs’ reader Henry’s article was worthwhile because he placed Gallo among the group of six hitters this season who are near the top of the leaderboards for homers, walks and strikeouts, noting that among that group, Gallo had the highest k-rate and the lowest BB-rate and contact rate. A week earlier, Jeff Sullivan wrote a piece entirely about Gallo, and cited average exit velocity and max velocities since 2015, noted his improved contact rate from God-awful to merely awful, showed that his whiff rate with two strikes had gone from N.L.-pitcher level to just bad. Sullivan then looked to comparable batters who thrived despite higher k-rates to provide a sense of Gallo’s ceiling should he continue to improve his k-rate.
So what does this author add to our knowledge of Gallo? She writes in three different ways how bad his k-rate has been: “He’s striking out a lot. Like a lot, a lot (52.6%).” She notes his performance the past 10 games as if that has statistical significance, but not only is the sample size minuscule, the key stat for those 10 days, k-rate, is virtually identical to his lifetime k-rate in the majors (between 45% and 46%).
So what did you learn from the article about Gallo that was new and statistically significant?
Nothing
“underwent surgery Friday to maintain a blood clot”
huh
Well that sure explains why he’ll be out so long.
-Why are you citing Iwakuma’s horrible SIERA and FB% as evidence that he’s having an “alright season”?
-Does anybody actually care that Colby Rasmus is not in the lineup?
-That Gallo graph… what is that communicating? Just… why…
-Familia had surgery to “maintain” a blood clot.
I’m sorry, but this author’s Riteups stand out like a sore thumb on this website, who hired this person?