Roto Riteup: May 13, 2015
Today the second leg of the Real Madrid vs Juventus UEFA semi-finals will be played. Count on yours truly tuning in to hopefully watch Juve advance.
On today’s agenda:
1. I still like Stephen Strasburg
2. Matt Moore’s progression
3. George Springer’s return
4. Streaming Pitching Options
I still like Stephen Strasburg
Let’s start with a .398 BABIP, a number so high it’s practically in the stratosphere. Moving past that we get to his 60.2 percent strand rate, something largely hurt by his BABIP. Strasburg owns a 3.45 FIP and 3.84 xFIP, both of which tell he’s pitched much better than the superficial 6.06 ERA shows. His velocity isn’t down and for the most part his pitch selection hasn’t changed, though he is throwing more four-seamers than previous seasons according to Brooks Baseball. It’s the last point which should cause the most amount of interest — I won’t venture calling it a concern yet — as Strasburg isn’t getting as many swinging strikes as usual, possibly due to more four-seamers and fewer secondary pitches. Prior to getting shelled by Arizona yesterday, Stras had a 7.0 percent SwStr%, 3.9 points fewer than his career average. He managed a mere six swinging strikes out of 72 pitches in the game last night, still below his norm from past seasons.
I could be picking nits here as Strasburg still owns a 8.83 K/9 however it is worth noting that number would be a single season low for him. Still, with his velocity just fine and the advanced metrics telling of better days ahead, I’d be willing to make a buy-low offer on whoever currently owns Stras in your leagues. Given that he hasn’t thrown a quality start in four consecutive outings, now is the time to get a great price on a stud pitcher. Once Strasburg’s BABIP comes down then maybe we’ll see him return to his lofty status up in the Stras-mas-sphere.
Matt Moore’s progression
Moore will throw a simulated game tomorrow, followed by another later on before starting a minor league rehab assignment, reports Roger Mooney of the Tampa Tribune. This is my own speculation, but barring any setbacks, expect Moore to take the mound for the big league club sometime in mid June. He’s worth picking up in deep leagues as Moore could be rejoining the Rays around June 18, his 26th birthday. The high-upside southpaw can be grabbed in over 65 percent of CBS formats and over 90 percent of ESPN and Yahoo! leagues. Standard 12-team mixed leagues can wait a few weeks to make a move on him, just don’t wait too long as Moore has the potential to be a second half impact starter.
George Springer’s return
The Houston Astros will welcome back Springer in time for their game against the San Francisco Giants today. After being placed on the seven-day concussion disabled list, Springer was cleared to rejoin the team after playing a Double-A rehab game with no issues. His batting average will never dazzle you, however count on plenty of counting stats as he is an excellent power/speed option and should return to hitting in a prime spot in the Houston lineup, likely third where he has spent most of this season.
Streaming Pitching Options
If you enjoy streaming pitchers, tune into the Roto Riteup for recommendations each and every day.
A pitcher for today: Wade Miley at OAK (Sonny Gray)
Miley will be dueling against a tough pitcher in Gray, but the A’s lineup has not fared very well against southpaws this season. Their team 52 wRC+ is second worst in baseball and three of their better hitters to date, Stephen Vogt, Josh Reddick and Ike Davis are all left-handed hitters. Miley is available in over 80 percent of the three major fantasy sites.
A pitcher for tomorrow: Chase Whitley at TB (Erasmo Ramirez)
Owner of a 90.4 percent strand rate, Whitley doesn’t figure to be a 3.06 ERA pitcher for much longer. To his credit, he does limit the free passes and misses bats. The Rays have been a tick below average against right-handers thus far and Whitley is a pretty solid option. He can be picked up in 75 percent of CBS leagues and more than 90 percent of Yahoo! or ESPN formats.
You can catch David spouting off about baseball, soccer, esports and other things by following him on twitter, @davidwiers.
I picked up Moore yesterday in a few leagues and stashed him on my DL. Control was a problem for him before Tommy John so it will be interesting to see how he bounces back with that and his velocity obviously.
David, any thoughts on a couple of early 30’s Outfielders who have caught fire in May in Andre Ethier and Shin Soo Choo? I know Choo was featured here in an article last week, but I mostly ignored him since he was terrible last year and in April. Obviously he wont keep up his current May pace, but is it possible he remains a strong fantasy OF option the rest of the year? Would I be crazy to grab Choo if it meant having to give up on someone like Jake Marisnick? Either has less upside obviously than Choo, but he seems to be playing himself into an near everyday role (against righties) even when Crawford and Puig come back. As a Leonys Martin owner I am preparing for him to go on the DL and see Either as a option to replace him for a bit. Do you like Either or Colby Rasmus more as a possible Martin replacement should he go on the DL?
I’m still not sold on Choo. His power to the pull field was terrible in 2013-14, though it appears to be rebounding this year. I definitely would not drop Marisnick for him.
With Puig’s setback, I talked myself into Ethier in a league, and I like him more than Rasmus.
Hmmm, okay thanks for the advice. Would you take either Choo or Ethier over Justin Morneau at this point as a bench bat?
Also, I am desperate for a First Basemen in one of my leagues with Chris Carter scuffling so bad. I have some depth at OF, with Yelich, Marisnick and Polanco as my “depth” bats right now. I am thinking of trying to move Marisnick for a First Basemen and have been offered Brandon Belt for him. Is this selling too low on Marisnick or is this a fair offer? I know Belt’s power has disappeared so far this year, but he seems to be hitting the ball better since the calender turned to May and would be an upgrade over the guys that populate the Waiver Wire like Kyle Blanks and Logan Morrison.
Morneau > Ethier > Choo
Belt for Marisnick is fair if you can spare the steals.
I just offered Shelby miller for Stras. You like or should I offer less? Thank you.
I think that’s fair, it might not get the job done in terms of getting Strasburg, but it’s not an insulting offer either. I’m not sure you would be able to offer much less to get Strasburg though.
It might be a little light, but seems like a reasonable price to at least get a counter-offer.
Thanks David and Mike W.
Starling Marte too much for Stras? I’m loaded at OF and injuries hit me at SP already, but still…
Personally I would hang onto Marte and try and offer a player a little lower for Strasburg. Giving up Marte for Strasburg is a trade I would make if Strasburg was rolling. While I agree with David that Strasburg should start to bounce back soon, I’m not sure you would be really buying low on Strasburg if you gave up Marte.
Seems like a lot, yeah.
I don’t necessarily disagree about Strasburg. However, I will say that using K/9 can help sugarcoat bad performances by pitchers. For example, Strasburg’s 8.83 K/9 looks pretty decent compared to the major league average. It is below his career average and is a 12.8% decrease from last year, but still not that alarming. But if we use K%, which is a more useful measure, then his 20.6% looks like a significant concern because that is a 26.2% decrease from last year.
By seeing more batters per inning (because he’s giving up more hits and walks), his K/9 is inflated.
Using K/9 instead of K% is only an issue when a pitcher’s BABIP and/or walk rate are significantly different from past years – and this is certainly the case with Strasburg.
You’ll get no argument from me. I like K%-BB% even more, but of all the fantasy leagues I’ve played in, plenty have used K/9 and none have used K%.
Strasburg appears to be an emotional mess, which of course is something which can’t be measured. Don’t forget, he left a game in Atlanta a couple of years ago because it was too hot. Ever hear of that before? I didn’t think so.
Doesn’t seem crazy Jim.
Yeah dehydration is a myth.
I think the biggest concern around Strasburg isnt so much his attitude on the mound, but the fact he is out of the “grace period” for a Tommy John guy. That might not mean anything, but listening to both Eno and Jeff Zimmerman note that both in the pre-season and so far this season a couple of times along with the fact Strasburg’s mechanics have always been a big question mark about him and his long term health it is worth pointing out.
I think Strasburg will bounce back and be a very valuable fantasy starter, but I do think there a number of “warts” about him that are fair for fantasy owners to worry about. As for his attitude, I think that will be fine once he starts to have a good outing or two. As long as he doesnt develop the “yips” or something crazy like that he will pull out of it.
He just seems very hittable this year: contact rate up ~9%, zone % up 6%, o-contact up ~18%. Brooks baseball has his fastball “grooved %” at 7-10% when historically it’s around 5-6%. Not positive signs.
Well, Halladay left a start from the heat once.
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/2011-07-18-phillies-cubs-halladay_n.htm
Thoughts on a Duda for Stras deal? Too much? I’ve got Freeman, Rizzo and Hosmer, so one of those guys is always the odd man out.
Duda wouldn’t be enough to get Stras from me, but Freeman and Rizzo would be too much to give up.
Given your 1B depth, you made the most reasonable offer.
How did you come to be a Juve fan?
More of a Pirlo fan than anything!
I cheer for QPR (Go Hoops) but now we’re back in the Championship, sigh.
Do you like Moore over say, Matt Cain for a single DL spot league that is deep with pitching?
I would go with Moore for sure. Cain is older and just no longer has the upside that Moore who should just be entering the prime years of his career has.
Moore carries risk, but considering his upside vs. Cain, I would definitely go with Moore.
Definitely Moore.
Moore’s control was bad before TJ, how could it be better without some good stretching out.
In my yahoo league, alternatives such as greene, ruby, karns, and heston are available.
Moore’s control was shaky, but the upside that he gives is hard to pass up. Honestly, I am looking at Matt Moore the same way I am looking at someone like Carlos Rodon or Syndergaard. Risk is definitely something that they all share, but the potential upside that all three have is hard to pass up. Could I roster a “safer” pitcher like Shane Greene or Nate Karns or Nathan Eovaldi, sure. None of those guys carry a ton of upside though, certainly not like Moore and company carry.
I look at guys like Matt Moore as a sort of “fantasy lottery ticket”, could they not pan out or struggle? Sure, but they could also come back and be a top 40 Fantasy Starting Pitcher the rest of the way. That’s something that the guys I mentioned earlier, probably don’t possess.
Risk vs reward, my good man!
Moore is freely available and offers high upside. A bench spot for a few weeks is well worth a potential pay off given his talent.
I made a trade for Strasburg today based on the reasoning in this piece and a little verification work of my own. I swung a deal for McCutchen also.
I gave up Bumgarner, Kinsler, and Trumbo for McCutchen, Strasburg, and Martin Prado. I worry if I overpaid for Strasburg. Maybe I could have gotten away with trading Trumbo or Kinsler for Strasburg straight up.
You bought low on Cutch and Stras, nicely done.
Giving up Bumgarner to get Stras is a lateral move to me, though. You picked up a ton of AVG though.
Seems like Strasburg is a popular buy low candidate today.
I own him in a 16 team points keeper league. I’ve just been asked to send an offer to another member of the league. Miller is on the other guy’s team.
Miller is pitching about as good as he can. Strasburg is pitching about as bad as he can. So I see both negative and positive regression coming.
If I ask for Miller for Strasburg, what else can I ask for? Since this is a slugger’s league (very little deduction for Ks by batters) can I try to balance it out by offering Kyle Seager for Todd Frazier at 3B? Would that be an insulting offer since Frazier’s power numbers are off to a good start and Seager hits in a more difficult stadium for power?
Or how about Cano for Dozier? While Cano’s batting average is going to be good, I wonder if he’ll ever get to 20 HRs again. Dozier can’t hit for the same average, but he can probably bang out more dingers, get more steals and maintain a good walk rate. And he’s younger.
Seager for Frazier is okay given the park factors, but Frazier is two years older.
I Miller + Cano for Stras + Dozier is a solid deal. Dozier’s AVG and OBP won’t be near Cano’s but both may be around 15 HR and Dozier will get that many steals. You get the younger position player and the better pitcher.
Is a Stras-buy low for a Pineda- or Salazar-sell high completely insane?
I’d be shocked if Salazar or Pineda were able to fetch Stras in a 1-for-1 deal.
I currently have in a four outfielder league – J. Upton, Wil Myers, George Springer, Melky Cabrera and Ben Revere.
Thinking about offering either Springer or Myers for Strasburg. Which one? Please help!!
I would offer Myers first and see if that is able to get the deal done. If you have to, then you could consider Springer. I think a lot of it depends on what kind of Waiver Wire you have or the state of your starting pitching. As good as Strasburg can be, if you already have really solid Starting Pitching and little OF help on the wire you might actually end up hurting your team a bit if you have to end up playing both Melky and Revere everyday.
Agree with Mike below, offer Myers first.
I just offered Greinke, A Jones and B Phillips for Dozier, King Felix and Yelich. 10 tea, keeper league. What do you think?
If you can handle the loss of home runs, I like it
Thank you. Is a points league.