Roto Riteup: May 1, 2015

We’ve wrapped up the first month of the season! While none of my teams are currently in first place, I like my chances in most of my leagues.

On today’s agenda:
1. Buying Jon Jay stock
2. Mike Foltynewicz to start today
3. Love/Hate with James Paxton
4. Streaming Pitching Options

Buying Jon Jay stock
I’d probably buy his bouillon too. Jay’s current .261/.346/.290 line isn’t something to go bonkers over, however his .295 BABIP is nearly 50 points below his career average. A career .293 hitter — and .291 since 2012, the 34th highest AVG in baseball among qualified hitters — Jay has hit leadoff in the last two times he’s started. He may continue to see time atop the lineup when the St. Louis Cardinals face a right-handed pitcher. It’s an idea the club has at least pondered since the off-season and it’s a move I agree with. I love his batting eye and plate discipline, especially this season. If his 4.8% swinging strike rate holds it would be the lowest of his career and his contact rate is now above 90%. I’d like to see Jay run some more, though if he hits for a .280/.355/.370 line while spending most of his time in a prime run scoring position, I can live without the steals. Now is the time to swoop in and claim Jay as he is available in over 90% of CBS, ESPN and Yahoo! leagues.

Mike Foltynewicz to start today
The Atlanta Braves No. 5 prospect according to our own Kiley McDaniel, Foltynewicz will take the mound at home against the Cincinnati Reds. Sporting a fastball that touches 100 as well as a curveball that can sometimes look like a plus pitch, he can miss bats. Be wary of his control as even in the minors avoiding walks was never Foltynewicz’s specialty. At Triple-A for both the Houston Astros last season and the Braves this, he has posted a BB/9 north of 4.00. On whether or not Foltynewicz will stick, Atlanta skipper Fredi Gonzalez was quoted: “It’s not a one-deal tryout. I’m excited, and he’s earned it.”

With Trevor Cahill being moved to the long-reliever role, expect Folty (I’m not sure if that actually is a nickname, but his name makes him my new Marc Rzepczynski already) to stick in the big league rotation for more than just a one game trial. He’s free to pick up in 85% of CBS leagues and over 95% of Yahoo! and ESPN formats.

Love/Hate with James Paxton
After positive reviews in last Friday’s Roto Riteup, this may become a running feature before the weekend hits and Zach Sanders takes over the RR duties.

Love:
– 26 K’s in 26.2 innings
– 51.8% GB%
– 94.4 mph average fastball yesterday
– 3.53 xFIP

Hate:
– A tendency to groove pitches
– 4 HR allowed partially due to the above point
– 54.3% first strike rate versus 60.8% league average

Availability:
37% CBS
54% Yahoo!
87% ESPN

Verdict:
Paxton’s home run rate should normalize and with it his 55.6% LOB%. He should be rostered and spot started in 14-team or deep 12-team formats, but is probably a stream option in standard leagues.

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Streaming Pitching Options
If you enjoy streaming pitchers, tune into the Roto Riteup for recommendations each and every day.

A pitcher for today: Mike Foltynewicz vs CIN (Anthony DeSclafani)
The Reds haven’t performed too well against right-handers thus far, being held to an 89 wRC+. I’ve grabbed Folty in a few leagues and may even roster him if he shows potential.

A pitcher for tomorrow: Dan Haren vs PHI (Cole Hamels)
Haren has struggled with giving up the long ball this season but tomorrow he’ll be in the comfortable dimensions of Marlins Park. He’ll take on a Phillies lineup that ranks 29th in baseball as per wRC+ against right-handers.