Roto Riteup: May 1, 2015
We’ve wrapped up the first month of the season! While none of my teams are currently in first place, I like my chances in most of my leagues.
On today’s agenda:
1. Buying Jon Jay stock
2. Mike Foltynewicz to start today
3. Love/Hate with James Paxton
4. Streaming Pitching Options
Buying Jon Jay stock
I’d probably buy his bouillon too. Jay’s current .261/.346/.290 line isn’t something to go bonkers over, however his .295 BABIP is nearly 50 points below his career average. A career .293 hitter — and .291 since 2012, the 34th highest AVG in baseball among qualified hitters — Jay has hit leadoff in the last two times he’s started. He may continue to see time atop the lineup when the St. Louis Cardinals face a right-handed pitcher. It’s an idea the club has at least pondered since the off-season and it’s a move I agree with. I love his batting eye and plate discipline, especially this season. If his 4.8% swinging strike rate holds it would be the lowest of his career and his contact rate is now above 90%. I’d like to see Jay run some more, though if he hits for a .280/.355/.370 line while spending most of his time in a prime run scoring position, I can live without the steals. Now is the time to swoop in and claim Jay as he is available in over 90% of CBS, ESPN and Yahoo! leagues.
Mike Foltynewicz to start today
The Atlanta Braves No. 5 prospect according to our own Kiley McDaniel, Foltynewicz will take the mound at home against the Cincinnati Reds. Sporting a fastball that touches 100 as well as a curveball that can sometimes look like a plus pitch, he can miss bats. Be wary of his control as even in the minors avoiding walks was never Foltynewicz’s specialty. At Triple-A for both the Houston Astros last season and the Braves this, he has posted a BB/9 north of 4.00. On whether or not Foltynewicz will stick, Atlanta skipper Fredi Gonzalez was quoted: “It’s not a one-deal tryout. I’m excited, and he’s earned it.”
With Trevor Cahill being moved to the long-reliever role, expect Folty (I’m not sure if that actually is a nickname, but his name makes him my new Marc Rzepczynski already) to stick in the big league rotation for more than just a one game trial. He’s free to pick up in 85% of CBS leagues and over 95% of Yahoo! and ESPN formats.
Love/Hate with James Paxton
After positive reviews in last Friday’s Roto Riteup, this may become a running feature before the weekend hits and Zach Sanders takes over the RR duties.
Love:
– 26 K’s in 26.2 innings
– 51.8% GB%
– 94.4 mph average fastball yesterday
– 3.53 xFIP
Hate:
– A tendency to groove pitches
– 4 HR allowed partially due to the above point
– 54.3% first strike rate versus 60.8% league average
Availability:
37% CBS
54% Yahoo!
87% ESPN
Verdict:
Paxton’s home run rate should normalize and with it his 55.6% LOB%. He should be rostered and spot started in 14-team or deep 12-team formats, but is probably a stream option in standard leagues.
Streaming Pitching Options
If you enjoy streaming pitchers, tune into the Roto Riteup for recommendations each and every day.
A pitcher for today: Mike Foltynewicz vs CIN (Anthony DeSclafani)
The Reds haven’t performed too well against right-handers thus far, being held to an 89 wRC+. I’ve grabbed Folty in a few leagues and may even roster him if he shows potential.
A pitcher for tomorrow: Dan Haren vs PHI (Cole Hamels)
Haren has struggled with giving up the long ball this season but tomorrow he’ll be in the comfortable dimensions of Marlins Park. He’ll take on a Phillies lineup that ranks 29th in baseball as per wRC+ against right-handers.
You can catch David spouting off about baseball, soccer, esports and other things by following him on twitter, @davidwiers.
Is now a good time to try and buy low on Erik Aybar or Danny Santana? I have been using Wilmer Flores at SS with Zobrist going on the DL, but would like to upgrade to someone that could chip in some steals and Runs at short. Any chance Aybar or Santana can rebound soon and be starting options in standard Fantasy leagues?
ehhh neither are good options, I’d hang onto Flores a little longer.
aybar, maybe, but santana isn’t worth rostering absent that .400 babip he lucked into, last year…
so, you wouldn’t be buying low, you’d be buying danny santana…
I picked up Yunel Escobar as a Lowrie replacement in a league, so him or Flores, I suppose.
Yeah, SS has been a black hole for me once again this year. I’m intrigued by Brad Miller since I know he was someone a lot of people loved last year and he’s off to a nice start, but it’s hard to consider him as a solid option as long as he keeps batting so low in the order limiting his Runs other counting stats upside.
Any thoughts on Chris Davis this year? Was offered Freddie Freeman for him yesterday for him straight up in a 5×5 league…I feel inclined to take that deal but would love to hear any thoughts.
I wouldn’t. Freeman will end up with a much higher BA, more R than Davis. Davis strikes out way too much for comfort.
as of now, davis looks close to his ’13 numbers with regards to FB rate/contact %, fb distance. the average will probably be ~240 due to strikeouts and the shift but 35+ homers is possible.
Yeah I’d take it. The loss of AVG will (hopefully) be offset by Davis’ counting stats.
Better keeper for next season? Foltynewicz or syndergaard?
I would go with Snydergaard personally. He seems the safer bet barring injury, the jury is still very much out on if Foltynewicz can consistently throw strikes and I have read some scouts who remain convinced he profiles more as a reliever/potential closer due to his control issues. I haven’t heard that about Snydergaard.
Syndergaard…not even close. Folty is way too wild to be a reliable MLB starter.
Noah by a pretty comfortable margin.
Thanks everyone. Thats what i thought too i just hate having Noah burn a bench spot right now (in addition to rusney, whos killing me) on somewhat of a short bench. but my teams solid enough where it doesnt hurt me
No mention of the Dilson Herrera call-up? I know it’ll just be a few weeks, but the guy is pretty darn good and should be up permanently after about three more weeks of service time suppression in Vegas.
He almost made the cut, but I don’t like to drag the RR on for too many words.
If he does I beat him.
So far only my emotions have been scarred.
Sorry for being completely off topic, but whats everyones thoughts on maybe selling high on HanRam? Am i crazy to try and shop him?
Captain America, you spelled your name wrong!
I wouldn’t shop Hanley. If someone offers you a Godfather type deal, then certainly entertain the idea, but having him a lineup at SS every day is a great feeling.
Would you grab Folty over Shane Greene in a 2 move per week, keep forever 12 team H2H?
Keep forever? I’d go with Folty. Better pedigree and is three years younger.