Roto Riteup: June 29, 2012
This will be my only installment of the Roto Riteup this week. I know you’ve all come to love and depend on my weekend posts, but alas, I have a wedding to attend to. In Heaven Iowa.
• The much hyped debut of Trevor Bauer was similar to the knock-off fireworks I used to buy as a kid: not much bang for the buck. In his first MLB start, Bauer lasted a mere four innings and allowed two earned runs. He recorded three strikeouts (one was against Jair Jurrjens though) and allowed as many walks. Going in to this start, Bauer is owned in almost 50% of Yahoo! formats and almost 60% of ESPN leagues. I didn’t get a chance to pick him up in any of my leagues, but it may not matter. He only got three whiffs in this abbreviated start, and clearly control was an issue. Of course it is still absurdly early to draw any conclusions, but it does seem like his minor league walk totals tagged along with him on his promotion.
• Another instance of “It’s way too early to read into this: Arizona Diamondbacks Edition” is shortstop Stephen Drew. With a 0-4 performance last night, Drew has but one hit in his return to action so far. His sample size is all of two games, so I’m nowhere near concerned yet, just pointing out fact. If Drew is out there on your league’s waiver wire, I would be quick to grab him. ZiPS predicts a rest-of-season .325 wOBA, and if Drew manages to hit that, that would place him squarely in the top 10 of shortstop production. Drew is currently available in 75% of Yahoo! leagues and over 80% of ESPN leagues.
• I’m boarding the Xavier Avery bandwagon. Again. I know I’ve touted him before, but I can’t help myself. This year in Triple-A he is averaging over four pitches seen per plate appearances, a walk rate above 13% and has 16 steals to just three caught stealing. He has even passed his entire 2011 home run total. On top of all that, he is only 22. It isn’t like he some career minor leaguer. With those stats in mind, he is everything that I look for in a sleeper. Avery is exact definition of a sleeper, as he owned in 0.1% of ESPN and Yahoo! leagues combined. If you play in a mixed league 14-team or a deep 12-team league, I’d look to grab Avery now.
• Somehow David Murphy remains undervalued. I’m not surprised that he isn’t owned as much as he should be, but more surprised that after I had him in my 4th tier of the June AL OF update, he didn’t fall off of a cliff. Murphy’s seasonal line now sits at an outstanding .289/.378/.500; good for a .380 wOBA. To put that in perspective, among players who have garnered at least 200 PA’s this season, Murphy’s wOBA ranks tied for 25th in all of baseball. To be more specific, his wOBA is tied with Giancarlo Stanton and Paul Goldschmidt. Even when Murphy is hot, he isn’t getting noticed by fantasy owners. Over the past 14 days, Murphy has cranked three homers and stolen a pair of bases, all while hitting at a .387 clip. Despite all this, Murphy is owned in less than 10% of both ESPN and Yahoo! leagues. Go get him. Now.
For those of you who play daily fantasy games like FanGraphs: The Game, or just like to stream players, here are a couple matchups you may be able to exploit.
A Pitcher for Today: Bud Norris at CHC
Generally I don’t like starting players on their first game back from a stay on the DL, but I’m a fan of Norris. Also, the Cubs are bad. Really bad. Norris is only owned in about 40% of both Yahoo! and ESPN leagues. I’d stream him if he is available.
A Pitcher for Tomorrow: Cole Hamels at MIA
The Marlins are among the worst in the league against left-handed pitching. I will absolutely be buying Hamels on tomorrow.
A Hitter for Today: Colby Rasmus vs LAA (Ervin Santana)
Rasmus is torching right-handed pitching right now, and he has always hit well against them. He looks like a good buy today.
You can catch David spouting off about baseball, soccer, esports and other things by following him on twitter, @davidwiers.
Rasmus is 0-8 with 4 K’s in his career versus Ervin Santana…just saying
Without sounding too snarky, I think I’ll take his slightly larger body of work against all RHP than just a single individual match-up.
Drop Campana for Avery?
Campana will run a little bit more, but Avery has infinitely more power. I’d go with Avery, but I’m super high on him.
How much PT do you see him getting? Is he any everyday guy? 2013 starter?
I have to think that he’ll get the vast majority of time in LF.
I’ve had Bauer taking up a bench spot for about 3 weeks, picked off the wire, so let’s call this a pretty minor investment.
I’m reserving judgement for now, but the initial impression was not great. I was watching the mlb.com gameday feed, and he was not showing good control at all. Even in the good innings, there were a good number of “wild” pitches (that didn’t get away from Montero). Maybe that’s part of his deception, but I doubt it.
That said, he did a great job of limiting the damage, and ultimately keeping the D-backs in the game. But 4 free passes (3 BB & 1 HB) in an inning is gonna hurt no matter what.
Being a Braves fan, the best part of the night was Jurrjens. It’s good to see him perform. I don’t trust him yet, and it looked like the wheels were about to fall off in the 6th, but I hope he pulls it together for a few more starts.
Yeah, I wanted emphasize that it is far too early to draw conclusions, I wanted to make note of a few things that I noticed that I find important.
Jurrjens was never a strikeout guy, but his K/BB this year is just abysmal. I’m not looking to pick him up any time soon.
Bauer was pitching on 3 days rest, so we shouldn’t be coming to any conclusions until he gets his normal rest days and throwing programs. That being said, I’m excited to watch his next few starts, which are both at home against the Padres (yuck) and the Dodgers (those same Dodgers that just got shut out 3 games in a row and who are starting Scott Van Slyke.
Excellent point re: 3 days rest.
Hmmm I like Avery’s upside… been holding onto Kalish tho… who will be more prominent next year?
Oh wow. For next year? I’ll still say Avery. With Ellsbury and Crawford + Sweeney/Ross/Kalish, that is a crowded Boston OF.
FWIW, I like Avery more than Kalish anyways.
Thanks for always being a good replier to your posts, David. Obviously SSS, but Kalish hasn’t impressed me in his time so far. Think I’ll roll the dice on Avery.
No need to thank me kind citizen, just doing my job!
But I do appreciate the thanks. And I liked Kalish pre-injuries. Now? I’m a lot more skeptical.
Norris is a fine choice today, certainly better than Ross Detwiler (I’m looking at you, Sanders). I’d go for Delgado today, though, over either. Only 5% owned in Yahoo leagues, will be cheap otherwise, and should get a decent number of Ks, a good ERA, and a good chance at a W.
I like the Nats offense more than I like Delgado’s pitching, but I can see your point there.
Great job again, Dave.
Can you recommend any 2nd-half SPs to target via trade/WW? I recently lost D. Hudson, in addition to B. Morrow, and D. Haren has been atrocious, esp in a QS league. Thankfully I have Strasburg to mitigate some of my awful ratios, but I scooped up Liriano and still looking for ERA/WHIP. I also traded for M. Moore recently but he too had not turned it around.
Anyone else out there?
Off the top of my head, I’m super high on Masterson and Ubaldo. Those guys carry obviously huge questions marks though. I’m a little scattered right now because I’m right about to leave for the wedding, but I should have a better answer for you sometime late Sunday.
Guys like Zimmerman, Bender, Duronio et al are all way smarter than me; I’m sure they have good insight and answers for you!
Awesome – thanks Dave.
I just picked up Masterston; it’s kind of a shallow league so he was floating around.
Enjoy the wedding, man.
Thanks. We visited the worlds largest truck stop last night. And that has been the highlight of Iowa so far…
Looks like a short-lived shot for Avery, sadly…