Roto Riteup: June 22, 2013
Few movies can evoke the same amount of uproarious laughter that Hot Shots! or the sequel, Hot Shots! Part Deux brings out. After watching the former yesterday evening, this particular scene stuck out as especially inane and hilarious.
On today’s agenda:
1. Quick thoughts on Matt Garza
2. A trio of hot middle infielders
Quick thoughts on Matt Garza
Though Garza’s seasonal numbers aren’t impressive, he has picked it up recently. Yesterday’s eight innings and eight strikeouts was his finest start of the season, and now he is working on 15 consecutive innings of one run ball. The sole run allowed was on a solo home run. Beyond that one blemish he allowed just five other base runners on the day. He’ll still be prone to the occasional home run, but he is a solid source of strikeouts and decent ratios. His WHIP last year was 1.18 and prior to yesterday’s gem, Garza had a 1.22 WHIP. Garza should be rostered — not just streamed — in most formats at this point. He is free to own in over 40% of ESPN and Yahoo! leagues as well as 25% of CBS leagues.
A trio of hot middle infielders
Jose Iglesias is now hitting a scorching .431/.482/.578 through 114 plate appearances and has received starts at third base over the struggling Will Middlebrooks. Don’t expect home runs from him, but Iglesias will run into a double or the occasional triple for you. The Boston Red Sox have been rewarding Iglesias’ hitting with playing time; you should as well as long as he stays hot. He is eligible at both third base and shortstop and will continue to garner plate appearances as long as his .494 (!) BABIP maintains. Of course he won’t keep that BABIP up for long, so grab him while he is hot and ride him until regression kicks in. Iglesias is currently owned in just 19% of Yahoo! leagues, 31% of CBS leagues, and 61% of ESPN formats.
Another shortstop — as well as second base — eligible player that has been on fire recently is Brian Dozier. After yesterday’s home run, Dozier has crushed four home runs in his past five games. Over his past 30 days, Dozier has hit .270 with six home runs, 14 RBIs, 14 runs, and three steals. The power is certainly a surprise, as Dozier’s current .151 ISO is almost 40 points above his career average, but the question looms about whether or not his new found power legit. Prior to yesterday’s dinger, five of his six home runs were rated as “plenty” according to ESPN’s Hit Tracker, so he isn’t hitting wall-scrappers. His batted ball profile hasn’t changed, nor has his strikeout and walk rates, so this power increase could be the real deal. It wouldn’t be unheard of for a 26-year-old to find his power suddenly, after all, look at what Trevor Plouffe did for Minnesota in his 26-year-old season just last year. If Dozier is able to keep up this pace on the counting stats, he may end up with a nice little 15-15 season. Dozier is owned in just 7% of ESPN and Yahoo! leagues and 19% of CBS formats.
Now that we’ve covered the AL East and AL Central, let us not make the AL West feel left out. Nick Franklin has been crushing the ball since being called up and now owns a .277/.362/.494 line in 94 PA’s. He’s powered four home runs and six doubles while stealing three bases to boot. Like Dozier, Franklin is eligible at both short and second, giving him an extra layer of goodness to enjoy. If you have room to add just one of these middle infielders, Franklin should be the favored pick. For now, Franklin is free to own in 70% of Yahoo! leagues, 54% of ESPN formats, and 35% of CBS leagues. Grab him now before you miss out on a smooth hitting 22-year-old middle infielder with a strong prospect pedigree.
You can catch David spouting off about baseball, soccer, esports and other things by following him on twitter, @davidwiers.
Would you rather Franklin or Alcides at this point? OPS counts
Franklin, but Alcides’ steals makes it close.
I picked up Franklin and dropped Alcides about a week and a half ago and I haven’t been disappointed. Franklin gets a lot more extra base hits than Alcides because he hits a lot more line drives and fly balls which get in the gap. He also walks more than Alcides which helps out with the OPS
Do you expect Pedro Ciriaco to continue to rake in SD? 8 hits and 3 steals over the last week. He did have some good runs in Boston when given playing time. Right now he is being used at 3B till Panda gets back. Might keep him as Swiss army knife player on the bench.
He’s got a little speed, but I’d rather have the three guys listed above.
Duex
Where do you rank Josh Rutledge in that group- both short and long-term?
Franklin is the best regardless of short or long term. I’d probably want Iglesias, Rutledge, then Dozier in that order.
So your advice on Iglesias is to note that he has strung together rolls of double six’s and bet that he’s going to do so again but quickly — don’t delay or the magic will wear off. Tom Tango’s findings about hot streaks be damned!
Word of warning: Don’t go near a casino.
Here’s another approach. Do you think his .147 ISO is sustainable? If it is than he may put up respectable numbers for a SS in a moderately deep league. His minor league record suggests it’s not but maybe at age he’s growing into some gap power.
upvote
The doubles power is fine, they might even stick around for awhile. Of course, his career high in a single season for doubles is 11, and he’s at 10 already. So, yeah, there are some things to think about. Of course he’s still really young and for a shortstop, his bat will play.
What I’m saying won’t be fine is his .494 BABIP. But if you think that *will* stick around, lets go play some poker.
Exactly. It is wrong and downright irresponsible on a respected, statistics-oriented site to encourage people to chase hot streaks.
Okay, I suppose my mistake was assuming that the readers could tell from my caveats (e.g. “past 30 days” and “through 114 PA’s”) that these guys aren’t the second coming of Trout, but useful options if they needed help.
Citing BABIP in small sample sizes isn’t to indicate a players true talent level (we all know that is a fools errand, at least we should if we’re reading FG/RG), but to help frame his hitting performance to date.
If you think I was encouraging fantasy owners to chase hot streaks that is my mistake, as I only wanted to emphasize and highlight some under-the-radar hitting performances. FWIW, I’ve added Franklin in one league and Dozier in another.
In the end it’s my fault if this came across as “HEY CHASE THIS PHANTOM HOT STREAK” as that wasn’t the point at all. My bad. I’ll work on that.
“grab him while he is hot”
downvote
Who would you rather own ROS McCann or Lucroy? I ask because I picked up Lucroy off the waiver wire when he got hot and McCann started to slump, but carrying two catchers is a bit of waste of a bench spot for me.
At this point, I’d rather have Lucroy. That isn’t a total lack of faith in McCann to bounce back, but Lucroy should post a better average with similar counting numbers.
Might be a silly question, but would you rather have Michael Young, nick Franklin or josh Rutledge? (12 team, roto). They would be a fill-in until Aaron hill returns, then I’d use as bench depth. Currently rostering young and just dropped Rutledge, so thinking about making the switch to Franklin. Thoughts?
Gotta go with Franklin here.
You like Franklin a lot, but what’s up with his ZiPS and Steamer projections? They aren’t too kind to him
Last year’s Triple-A performance (85 WRC+ in 296 PA’s) drags down his projection. He posted a .264 BABIP in August last year that equated to a .303 wOBA. This is my personal hypothesis, but I think he just wore out down the stretch a bit.
As of August 1, Franklin already recorded 500 PA’s across Double and Triple-A. He had recorded more PA’s in a single season in 2010, but 2011 saw him get 503 total PA’s against 2012’s 625.
I’m optimistic about him short and long term.
Nix, Andrelton, or Dozier?
Andrelton, Dozier, Nix.
Gyorko or Franklin? I like Gyorko a lot but Franklin has the steals and great BB% (OPS league).
It’s close, but I’ll go with Franklin due to the walk rate. In 5×5 I think it’s a push.
“grab him while he is hot and ride him until regression kicks in”
The ole’ reverse gambler’s fallacy.
Rehashing previous comments. Clever!
In a daily league, only SS all year has been Starlin. Just grabbed Franklin last night. Should I start him over Castro until Starlin starts producing better than Franklin? Seems like the answer is an obvious yes, but just wondering if the experts see it any differently.
Yeah I’m in a similar position as you. Thinking about straight out dropping Castro for Franklin since bench spots are such a premium in my points based daily roster lock league. Hard to pull the trigger on it though…
For now I’d start Franklin over Castro, at least until Castro strings together a week or so hitting.
Jacob, I wouldn’t drop Castro yet.
in a dynasty league, should I move Profar/Simmons for Franklin/Jarrod Parker? I’ve got a logjam at 2b, and the uncertainty in playing time for Profar will hinder my strength as the playoffs approach. I’m not sure how to value Profar given his situation in TX.
I’d rather have the two middle infielders over one and pitcher.