Roto Riteup: June 18, 2017

I’m not Mr. “Everything from Years Ago is Better” Guy, but I personally find it impossible not to get hyped when I hear this song, especially Pac’s verse:

On the Agenda:

• All Eyez on Healy
• 2 of Chicagoz Most Wanted
• Strictly for R.A.M.I.R.E.Z
• Picture Cutch Rollin’
• Keep Ya Head Up, Porcello
• Holler If Ya Hear Meyer
• In Other News
• What I’m Watching

All Eyez on Healy

Ryon Healy only posted a .690 OPS with 3 HRs in April and probably got cut in a lot of mixed leagues as he was likely being used as a corner infielder and 1B has produced tons of potential pickups this year. However, Healy has been one of the best hitters going since May 1st. He has a .974 OPS with 14 HRs, including eight this month which ties him for the lead with Cody Bellinger and Lorenzo Cain. He’s crushing his way to a .288 AVG, but his 26% K and 3% BB rates make him somewhat BABIP dependent. I’d plan for plenty more power, but more of a .260 hitter.

2 of Chicagoz Most Wanted

Matt Davidson and Todd Frazier are powering the middle of the White Sox lineup lately with a combined 15 HRs in the last 30 days. Frazier only has a 107 wRC+ in that span compared to Davidson’s 151, but Frazier is heating up of late with a 136 in the last two weeks. Frazier was popping up on some waiver wires, but I’d actually prefer him over Davidson the rest of the way. Frazier might not reach the 40 HRs he hit last year, but I think 30 HR/10 SB is quite viable, leaving 19/7 the rest of the way.

Strictly for R.A.M.I.R.E.Z

Who’s the best hitter on the Cleveland Indians? Most would answer Francisco Lindor without even thinking, but I think Jose Ramirez is right there. In fact, throughout the spring I suggested that the two just weren’t that different with the bat. While Lindor has fallen off a bit after a blazing hot April (1.018 OPS, 7 HR) with a .706 OPS and 6 HR since May 1st, Ramirez had his lull in May and is once again on fire. He hit 2 HRs in game 1 of the doubleheader, going 5-for-10 in the two games combined, and he’s got five straight multi-hit games (.565 AVG in 24 PA). Ramirez was the 14th-best middle infielder on ESPN’s Player Rater last year and he sits 8th this year. He’s a fantasy superstar and should be treated as such.

Picture Cutch Rollin’

Don’t look now but Andrew McCutchen has just two hitless games in his last 21 en route to a healthy .395/.472/.724 line with 6 HRs, 17 RBIs, and 19 runs scored in 89 PA. He was at .200 flat with a .630 OPS prior to the run and has added 60 points to the AVG and 177 to the OPS. With plate skills (18% K, 9% BB) and a batted ball profile in line with his career marks, it was hard not to see the .214 BABIP as a big drag on Cutch’s numbers, but in the shadow of last year’s disappointing performance, it was easy to see his struggles as something more.

Look, we’re not getting MVP Cutch back, but that’s OK. There’s plenty of wiggle room between his .926 OPS peak of 2012-15 and fantasy usefulness in all formats. I’m also encouraged by the 6 SBs, matching his 2016 total. An .850ish OPS, mid-teens HRs, and another handful of SBs (4-7) the rest of the way would keep McCutchen as a must-start outfielder.

Keep Ya Head Up, Porcello

Rick Porcello: “If I can just get the Cy Young this year, I don’t care what happens next year!”

The Devil: “OK, but I’m gonna saddle you with a 12.0 H/9 and 1.6 HR/9.”

Porcello: “Deal! I hope this pisses off Kate Upton, too, she wouldn’t sign my swimsuit issue a couple years ago.”

Yes, I’m a Bitter Barry over Verlander not getting the Cy Young last year, sue me. And the worst about the faux anger is I actually quite like Porcello. I always thought he was destined for more when he was coming up with Detroit. At his best, he looked like an elite #2 type, but he could never harness it for more than a handful of starts before an inevitable blowup. And of course his winning an award has zero effect on me so I don’t really care that much.

Porcello was knocked around the yard in Houston on Saturday, allowing 10 hits in six innings for the second straight start. In fact, he has allowed at least eight hits in each of his last eight starts: 9, 9, 11, 11, 8, 8, 10, and 10 – all in starts ranging from 6 to 6.7 IP. His .366 BABIP is a career-high, but he’s not just getting unlucky.

Batters putting it in the air more often (GB rate down from 43% to 37%) and doing so with authority as he has a career-worst 43% Hard contact rate. That also happens to be the worst mark in the league. He’s better than a 5.05 ERA, I’m not going out on a limb to say that, but I think you have to start a projection around 4.00-4.20. If things start to break his way, he can be more of a 3.75ish arm.

To Live and Die in LA… with Alex Meyer

You know you’re walking too many batters when a 6 IP/1 BB performance brings your rate down to 15%. Alex Meyer has always had control issues and Saturday’s start marks just the second start in nine that he’s walked fewer than three batters. That said, the opposition has struggled to hit the 27-year old righty this year, helping him to a 3.52 ERA despite a 1.41 WHIP. He has a 2.35 ERA/1.25 WHIP combo in his last seven including three strong quality starts in his four June outings. He throws 96 mph, misses bats with his curveball, and has a role. That said, I’m skeptical of how useful he can remain in non-AL only leagues with that walk rate. If at any point more hits start to fall, those walks will score in throngs and send his ERA skyward. Be careful.

In Other News

• Cole Hamels is making his final rehab start on Wednesday
• Felix Hernandez is slated to return Friday
• Manuel Margot is out on a rehab assignment
• Matt Shoemaker hit the DL with a strained right forearm
• Matt Andriese was transferred to the 60-day DL with his hip injury
• Andrew Cashner and the league’s most fraudulent ERA hit the DL with an oblique injury
• Seven guys popped 2 HRs yesterday
• Will Sunday be the third straight day with a pitcher home run? Jeff Samardzija and Jake Arrieta went yard on Friday and Saturday, respectively

What I’m Watching

• I’ll be zeroed in on Jacob Faria against my beloved Tigers, I haven’t been able to watch either of his starts entirely yet
• Which Jacob deGrom shows up Sunday? His last five outings by ER: 0, 1, 7, 8, 1
• Can Robbie Ray stay hot? After back-to-back home gems, he faces the Phillies on the road
• Jameson Taillon makes his second start since returning from the DL