Roto Riteup: June 10, 2017

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June 10, 2017

I’ll be taking over the weekend set of Roto Riteups, covering Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. (Keen observers will note I didn’t do one on 6/9/17, but I’ve got y’all covered on Fridays going forward)

And now this…

https://twitter.com/iamjoonlee/status/873385285140307968

It’s only hubris if I fail. –Julius Caesar

https://twitter.com/iamjoonlee/status/873385768567402496

That should be the end of this RR. You’re not going to care about anything else. In fact, 92% of you won’t even stop watching the GIF long enough to read this sentence.

On the Agenda:

  • Hicks Homers Twice
  • Mallex Quadruples His Waiver Cost
  • Call Me Maybin
  • Santana Does It Again
  • Maeda with the… Save?
  • In Other News
  • What I’m Watching

Hicks Homers Twice

Aaron Hicks stayed hot with a pair of home runs in Yankee Stadium on Friday night. He now has 10 on the season along with 34 RBIs, both totals matching the output of teammate Starlin Castro, who also went yard. Hicks is on a tear over his last 15 games with a .364/.413/.600 line, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 10 R, 16% K%, and 10% BB% in 63 PA. A much more selective approach has helped Hicks turn up the power, cut his strikeout rate and double his walk rate. He is finally taking advantage of his switch-hitting, too, with a virtually non-existent platoon split in his 1.010 OPS.

Joe Girardi also confirmed that Hicks’ playing time won’t take a big hit when Jacoby Ellsbury returns from a concussion:

“He’s going to play a lot. That’s the bottom line, when (Ellsbury) comes back,” Girardi said of Hicks. “I know that at some point I’m going to have to give Gardy a day off. I’m going to have to give Judge a day off. I’m going to have to give Hicks a day off. But he’s going to continue to get a ton of at-bats.”

As a long-time believer in Hicks, I’m all in on this, but I assure you that this isn’t just some confirmation bias for a former prospect crush. While he may not maintain a filthy 1.010 OPS with a 30 HR/25 SB pace, the skills are there to keep him very productive. He’s at least an .850 OPS-type player which is usually about a top-40 bat by season’s end. Of the 39 hitters with an .850 OPS or better last year, only 16 has 40+ HR+SB (min. 400 PA).

Mallex Quadruples His Waiver Cost…

…and makes me look silly in the process. I didn’t exactly dismiss Mallex Smith when he was brought up repeatedly during my chat on Friday, but I wasn’t really hyping him up, either. He made a huge splash in his first start since taking over for an injured Kevin Kiermaier (fractured hip) with a 2-for-3 night that included a home run, three runs, three stolen bases, two RBIs, and a walk!

Smith posted a .678 OPS and 3 SB in a brief stint with the club in early April before suffering a hamstring strain on April 14th and then being sent out upon returning April 27th. He was up for two days at the end of May and shipped back out for a week prior to Kiermaier’s injury. This great game doesn’t really change my outlook on him particularly with respect to my Jarrod Dyson comparison from the chat, but it will definitely raise his price this weekend.

The one revision I might make is to acknowledge a little extra punch in Smith’s bat vs. Dyson, but 2-3 extra homers (one of which you already missed on Friday) isn’t a major difference maker. Smith only has to jump over the incredibly low bar set by Peter Bourjos to obtain the overwhelming majority of Kiermaier’s playing time. He’s obviously must-own in AL leagues, but let your needs dictate his mixed league viability. Consider that Dyson (.227 AVG, 14 SB) – Smith’s likely outcome – is on just 16% of ESPN rosters while his upside, Delino DeShields (.295 AVG, 10 SB), is even lower at 4%.

Call Me Maybin

Hey, I just activated you, and this is crazy, but I need four steals, so Cameron Maybin. Maybin was activated Friday and picked up right where he left off with a 3-for-4 night that included a walk, four runs, and four stolen bases. Prior to his oblique injury, he had put together a .391/.509/.674 line in 57 PA with 2 HR, 4 SB, 7 K, and 11 BB. To further the point about Smith’s mixed league viability, Maybin is on 15% of ESPN rosters and I’d prefer him to Smith as well.

Santana Does it Again

We all understand that Ervin Santana can’t maintain his insane .153 BABIP over a full season and by golly, we were right! It soared to .154 on Friday night after a four-hit shutout in San Francisco. It was his third shutout this year, an MLB-best, and a strong response to his 4 IP/7 ER nightmare against the Angels on June 3rd. In fact, he has answered each of his three blowups with a tremendous outing:

  • 6 IP/6 ER v. BOS on May 7th, 7 IP/0 ER at CLE on May 12th
  • 7 IP/5 ER v. COL on May 18th, 9 IP/0 ER at BAL on May 23rd
  • 4 IP/4 ER at LAA on June 3rd, 9 IP/0 ER at SF on June 9th

Part of the reason he has been able to maintain such a low BABIP is that it’s usually home runs causing his damage. Eight of his 11 homers this year have come in the three duds. A .308 BABIP against the Angels is only outing over .238 this year. He’s better than his 8.7% K-BB rate which is his worst mark since 2006 (8.4%) and markedly worse than his 12% career rate.

The schedule lines up with the Mariners, White Sox, and Indians (on the road) in his next three and I’m not sure you can do much but ride it out. This outing might present a selling opportunity, but you’re not getting anything commensurate with a 2.20 ERA. Your best bet is a distressed asset with a proven track record like Carlos Gonzalez, Todd Frazier, Rougned Odor, Matt Carpenter, or Carlos Santana. If you want some upside that won’t cost a ton, seek out Yasiel Puig, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos or Maikel Franco.

Maeda with the… Save?

Kenta Maeda has labored through 56.3 innings with a 4.95 ERA, but his 1.24 WHIP, 18% K-BB, and 15% SwStr rate point to a much better arm than such an ERA would normally indicate. However, his home run rate has shot up to 1.6 and he’s gone more than five innings just twice in 11 outings, both of which amp up volatility and cut his margin for error. The Dodgers decided to push him to pen to piggyback with Rich Hill’s start as Hill himself has yet to go more than five even once. Maeda’s lone mistake was a solo shot to Joey Votto en route to a four-inning save that saw him fan six, walk nobody, and allow just three hits.

The Dodgers haven’t committed to this as Maeda’s long-term role as they no doubt realize the fragility of their rotation. Alex Wood is going to be activated for a start today and Hyun-Jin Ryu will pitch Sunday which left Maeda on the outside looking in, but none of Hill, Wood, Ryu, or Brandon McCarthy have a positive health record and even Clayton Kershaw showed his mortality last year. While I’m fairly certain Maeda will get another crack at starting, I’m not sure he’s much more than a five-and-dive guy which helps explain why the Dodgers were able to get such a favorable deal with him last year (8 years, $25 mil).

In Other News

What I’m Watching

Here are the pitchers and pitching matchups I’m keeping an eye on today:





 

Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

10 Comments
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TheNewTenTwelveMember since 2020
7 years ago

Now That’s a Riteup!

42
balancedman178
7 years ago
Reply to  TheNewTenTwelve

comment image

17
Jackie T.
7 years ago
Reply to  balancedman178

Agreed. Excellent work, Mr. Sporer.

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