Roto Riteup: June 10, 2015
Despite my South Koreans falling 2-0 to Brazil in yesterday’s World Cup match, I remain (blindly) optimistic on their chances to advance out of group play.
On today’s agenda:
1. Quick thoughts on Chris Heston
2. Joe Panik is raking
3. Travis d’Arnaud reminder
4. Streaming Pitching Options
Quick thoughts on Chris Heston
In the wake of the 27-year-old’s no-hitter, it seems like a good time to discuss him. Heston has been a bit of a pendulum this season, swinging from very good to not-so-hot from one start to the next. Overall he is up to a 66:18 strikeout to walk ratio and his 3.77 ERA is backed by even better 3.32 FIP and 3.21 xFIP estimators. I’m not convinced he’ll continue to post a 8+ K/9 as he is more of a ground ball pitcher than swing-and-miss guy, however Heston should be reliable in most leagues as a stream or spot starter. Currently available in just 32 percent of CBS formats but over 70 percent of Yahoo! and ESPN leagues, Heston isn’t likely to remain on the waiver wire for much longer.
Joe Panik is raking
In not quite half a season last year, Panik posted a .305 batting average and a .343 BABIP along with it. Thus far he’s essentially repeating the feat, with a .318 AVG and .346 BABIP. Panik is flashing more power, as his .152 ISO is higher than anything he’s accomplished in a full season in the minors. He may reach double digit home runs this season but counting on his AVG is the much safer bet. Given his increased walk rate — 8.8 percent — and his position as the number two hitter in the Giants lineup, Panik could surprise with his runs scored total as well. As a middle infielder with more than a pulse at the plate, Panik is already owned in over 70 percent of CBS leagues. Only 65 percent of ESPN managers have caught on to his game and even fewer, just 38 percent, of Yahoo! owners have picked him up.
Travis d’Arnaud reminder
The Mets are set to activate d’Arnaud prior to today’s game against the Giants. After a hot start, an errant pitch broke his hand and forced him to miss eight weeks of action. Most, that is 90 percent, of CBS leaguers opted to hang onto the 26-year-old, however d’Arnaud was dropped down to sub-50 percent ownership rates in both Yahoo! and ESPN leagues. If you happen to play at either of those sites and are in need of an upgrade at catcher, d’Arnaud is your guy.
Streaming Pitching Options
If you enjoy streaming pitchers, tune into the Roto Riteup for recommendations each and every day.
A pitcher for today: Rick Porcello at BAL (Wei-Yin Chen)
Porcello is owned in 70 percent of CBS formats — though only about 50 percent of Yahoo! and ESPN leagues — so he is a pseudo stream option. The O’s own the fourth highest strikeout rate when facing a right-handed pitcher and Porcello could have a nice strikeout day while still getting his normal ground ball outs.
A pitcher for tomorrow: Alex Colome vs LAA (Garrett Richards)
With an up-and-down season thus far, hopefully Colome can settle down against the Angels. The Halos have not fared too well against right-handers thus far and Colome should post a quality outing.
You can catch David spouting off about baseball, soccer, esports and other things by following him on twitter, @davidwiers.
Wieters or TDA rest of the season? Have Gattis as my starter but can’t really roster 3 catchers. Thanks!
TDA, but it’s close.
thanks david. in a 12 team one catcher points league is it een worth trying to shop one of TDA or Wieters? I have a feeling not many in my league will bite but id hate to just drop one of them.
Not sure what could be obtained there. Single catcher leagues makes trading C’s really, really tough.
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/travis-darnaud-tda-less-tbd/
Check out this piece on d’Arnaud. ZIPs and Steamer predict very close numbers for both Wieters and TDA for the remainder of the season.
But historically, with the exception of last year, Wieters has had trouble beating the shift as a LHB. It’s too early yet to tell if Matt can duplicate what he was doing last year before he got hurt, but it’s clear that D’Arnaud can hit to all fields.
On the other hand, Camden Yards and the entire AL East (with the exception of the Trop) offers better hitting environments. Citi Field is much friendlier to batters than it used to be, but Camden Yards is still a better hitting environment.
It’s a wash? I guess concerns about Wieters’ arm holding up might tilt the decision in favor of d’Arnaud.
Thanks Vil awesome stuff! A wash is about what i thought too. Hand injuries for hitters scare me a little making it even more even between the two IMO. I guess i could wait, but I want to clear a spot for a guy like Matz (who i can keep for next year)
What’s up with the CBS leagues? Do they have bigger rosters than ESPN and Yahoo? Why such a huge discrepancy in ownership percentages over the other two major web sites?
Maybe it’s time for me to switch. If you play only in keeper leagues as I do, ESPN has always lagged in adding rising prospects during the season. Does CBS do a better job with adding prospects to the player universe than ESPN?
It’s been my experience that CBS leagues are a bit more competitive, where you are a lot less likely to run into 2-4 owners that just ignore their teams and give up after April or May like in ESPN and Yahoo leagues. Plus, and I may be wrong about this, but I think CBS leagues are generally a bit deeper in terms of teams, most running 12-14 team leagues whereas ESPN still has a ton of 10 team leagues.
I’ve played at all 3 sites and my “home” league (keeper + distinct MiL roster and draft) moved from ESPN to CBS Commissioner this season.
Last year, someone on this site said that ESPN’s player ownership stats were pulled only from the standard, public leagues. True or not? Don’t know, but if so it would make sense that the ESPN ownership % would be closer to Yahoo.
There would be a big disparity in the numbers, but maybe not in reality if CBS is reporting ownership from all its leagues.
If you were really going to get into it you’d want to know what percentage of CBS and ESPN’s leagues are standard, what were custom public, private, what were Commissioner or other Pay to Play, the size of those leagues, etc. and look at those breakdowns.
The minor league universe at CBS is very large and updated frequently. It’s not all inclusive, but that doesn’t matter. As Commissioner, I can add players at any time. I’ve only had to add a couple. They were in the low minors and in the CBS database, just not in the free agent list.
Hard to say for sure. I think CBS (other than Ottoneu of course) handles keeper/dynasty leagues better than any site out there.
CBS is on point with their minor leaguers, basically the opposite of Yahoo!.
Yahoo! pisses me off to no end when they don’t include minor leaguers on the 40 man roster right from the get go, but they’ll put out that big name draftee from last year with zero chance of making the MLB roster.
TDA or yadier. I feel like TDA has the bigger upside.
I would go TDA, even if I am a bit nervous about him coming off this hand injury. Yadier looks done as a fantasy contributor.
TDA for me.
TDA. Molina’s power is gone.
Need to trade for a SP and I have a glut of OF’s on my roster. Which OF should I be looking to move? Souza, Ozuna, JD Martinez, Calhoun, or Moss?
I have been using Moss as an OF since I own Rizzo and Hosmer so his 1B eligibility doesn’t matter to me.
I think Calhoun and Martinez would fetch the best return. Were you looking to do a 2-for-1 or something?
Just a straight swap, I’m looking to get someone I can stick at the back end of my rotation. I have been offered Clay Buchholz and was thinking of giving the guy Moss or Ozuna in return. Do you see Ozuna’s power coming back or Moss’ average rebounding?
I like Ozuna, but I’d take Bucco over him in a heartbeat.
Note: I’m awfully high on Buchholz.
Also, what are you feelings on Carlos Rodon, David? I know a lot of people, myself included, were scared to death of his Walk Rate and control in general, but he seems to have tightened that up and has been much better of late. Is he still a streamer due to the risk of his control or is he nearing must own status?
Just five walks in his past three starts is very encouraging. I was very low on him this season and remain skeptical of his repertoire, but I’d given him several starts in DFS.
As for must-own? In 12-team mixed leagues (non-keeper/dynasty of course) I don’t see him as a must-own. Deeper leagues like 14-team, or 12-team with very deep benches, etc., yeah, I’d roster him.