Roto Riteup: July 3, 2015
In the final tune up match before the Gold Cup, the USMNT will take the field against Guatemala tonight at 6:30 pm eastern!
On today’s agenda:
1. Quick thoughts on Francisco Cervelli
2. Shaky starts from Matt Moore and Jose Fernandez
3. Streaming Pitching Options
Quick thoughts on Francisco Cervelli
Yesterday Cervelli popped his fourth home run of the season during his 2-for-5 day, bringing up his seasonal line to .304/.377/.411 in 242 plate appearances. The owner of a career .339 BABIP, even his current .372 mark seems unsustainable high for Cervelli. I’m not quite ready to write off his batted ball numbers merely as good fortune given his soft contact rate ranks 21st lowest in baseball. Over the past calendar year (prior to yesterday though), Cervelli has hit for a 127 wRC+, 6th best among catchers with at least 350 plate appearances. Cervelli may not hit .300 for the rest of the season, however given his status as a starter on a solid offensive team, I like him in two catcher leagues or as a budget pick in DFS formats. A lack of power makes me hesitant to name him a primary catcher in single catcher leagues, but his rate stats are more than playable in most leagues. He’s free to pick up in more than half of CBS leagues and 80 percent of Yahoo! or ESPN formats.
Shaky starts from Matt Moore and Jose Fernandez
Moore couldn’t escape the fifth inning yesterday, going 4 2/3 before being lifted. He allowed four runs on six hits and two walks, though four strikeouts was nice to see. Beyond the pair of walks, Moore recorded just 13 of a potential 21 first pitch strikes, plus three wild pitches. This type of outing doesn’t speak too well of his control post Tommy John surgery. To Moore’s credit, he managed to coax 10 swinging strikes out of 81 pitches, so the stuff is there to succeed. Via Brooks Baseball, Moore sat 90-91 mph and touched 93 on occasion after averaging 93 in 2013. I’d give him another start before deciding on whether or not to insert him into starting lineups.
Fernandez had a better day as he posted (the bare minimum for) a quality start. The 22-year-old last six innings and coughed up three runs on seven hits and zero walks, striking out six. Of his 89 pitches, Fernandez induced 11 swings-and-misses out of the Giants and got ahead of batters with a first pitch strike 20 out of 25 times. I’m much more encouraged in Fernandez’s outing and he seems like a safe option to start moving forward. I wouldn’t count on either him or Moore going deep into games for some time, but there is no doubt both should be be counted on to produce strong strikeout numbers this season.
Streaming Pitching Options
If you enjoy streaming pitchers, tune into the Roto Riteup for recommendations each and every day.
A pitcher for today: Dan Straily vs BOS (Justin Masterson)
This is another risky start, but as mentioned yesterday, today doesn’t offer a ton of great streaming options. Straily is making his major league debut with the Astros and is sporting an impressive 5:1 strikeout to walk ratio in Triple-A. He’s free to pick up in over 98 percent of the three major fantasy sites.
A pitcher for tomorrow: Kendall Graveman vs SEA (Felix Hernandez)
It’s doubtful that Graveman gets the best of King Felix, but I’m still anticipating a solid outing from him today. The Mariners rank near the bottom of the pack of wRC+ and own the fourth highest strikeout rate against right-handers. Graveman can be streamed in about 50 percent of CBS settings and over 80 percent of Yahoo! and ESPN leagues.
You can catch David spouting off about baseball, soccer, esports and other things by following him on twitter, @davidwiers.
Hey Dave,
So I inherited a dregs-ey OF on a team I just took over. 12-team, 30-man rosters, H2H 5×5 and we start 4 OFs. Right now I’m rolling with Melky, Granderson, Tomas, L. Martin & Maybin. I’m hoping Martin is a buy low and Maybin can keep it up.
Can you see dropping any of those guys for D. Peralta, G. Blanco or M. Byrd? Thanks!
If you need power, dropping Melky for Marlon Byrd wouldnt be a bad idea. I’m not crazy about Blanco period and depending on when Pence comes back, his playing time could take a hit. Peralta is someone I would be more interested in if I knew what his PT situation would be once Inciarte comes back. I have a feeling they will platoon since Pollok and Tomas are pretty much locked into starting roles.
Byrd should give you good power numbers going forward and I just don’t like Melky the ROS.
I love Peralta. Wrote this in the NL OF rankings a few days ago:
David Peralta has been a delightfully undervalued piece for me, even in a 12-team mixer. The Trumbo trade cleared playing time for him, and he just murders RHP. His career RHP split per 162 games is roughly .300-15-70-70-10.
I’d drop Melky for Peralta and bench him against LHP. Melky’s batted ball profile doesn’t suggest much positive regression.
Depending on your team needs and league settings, I’d consider dropping Martin for Byrd. For a speed guy, Martin gives you surprisingly little R upside.
I like Peralta as well, hes been especially good since getting regular AB’s in June/July. My concern with him is what happens to him and Inciarte when the latter returns after the ASB. Pollock isnt going anywhere in CF and the D-Back’s dont seem interested in keeping Tomas at 3B.
I’d probably drop Blanco first. No guarantees he still has a starting spot when Aoki and Pence return.