Roto Riteup: July 27, 2016

Maybe I’m just a really cool badass, but I find rules to be dumb when they’re enforced in a way that polices to the letter and not the spirit. The latest example? Yasiel Puig getting warned by MLB and threatened with a fine if he wears his Vin Scully colorway Nike cleats again. Rule of thumb: If a tribute is cool enough that your own social media accounts tweet it out, it’s probably doing more good than harm.

These Vin Scully cleats are ?. pic.twitter.com/TQ3Im1NJ4e

— MLB (@MLB) July 17, 2016

I get that rules are rules and there can be a slippery slope, but…really? Make Baseball Garish Again.

On the agenda:
1. Hard Hit % Gains
2. Various News and Notes
3. Streaming Pitcher Options

Hard Hit % Gains
In doing some research for a trade yesterday, I was diving into Wilson Ramos’ improvements this year, looking at what may have caused his home run per-fly ball rate spike. Among the changes that have accompanied that jump is a major surge in his hard-hit percentage, which has jumped from 26.4 percent to 35 percent. That’s not always going to come with a resultant spike in home run rate – batted ball distance, exit velocity, and trajectory all factor in, for example, and understanding leaps can require some qualitative analysis, too – but as a quick frame of reference, hard-hit percentage isn’t a bad indicator. Using the pool of 90 players who qualified in 2015 and are qualified so far this year, the relationship between hard-hit changes and home run per-fly ball changes has a weak-but-not-entirely-nothing 0.15 R-squared.

Here’s a look at the 15 biggest gainers and losers in hard-hit percentage this year:

Name	2015 HR/FB	2015 Hard%	2016 HR/FB	2016 Hard%	HR/FB Change	Hard% Change
Salvador Perez	12.4%	24.0%	12.6%	36.4%	0.2%	12.4%
Asdrubal Cabrera	8.7%	26.4%	12.4%	35.9%	3.7%	9.5%
Ian Kinsler	5.0%	26.4%	14.0%	35.1%	9.0%	8.7%
Wilson Ramos	15.8%	26.4%	23.8%	35.0%	8.0%	8.6%
Jose Altuve	7.4%	25.9%	14.8%	34.4%	7.4%	8.5%
Jean Segura	5.3%	19.7%	9.4%	27.9%	4.1%	8.2%
DJ LeMahieu	6.7%	26.6%	10.0%	34.8%	3.3%	8.2%
Matt Carpenter	15.8%	37.0%	14.7%	44.5%	-1.1%	7.5%
Nick Markakis	2.1%	25.7%	4.9%	33.0%	2.8%	7.3%
Derek Norris	8.9%	28.8%	14.8%	36.1%	5.9%	7.3%
Evan Longoria	10.8%	30.8%	15.7%	38.1%	4.9%	7.3%
Daniel Murphy	8.3%	31.1%	13.3%	38.3%	5.0%	7.2%
Kole Calhoun	15.7%	28.0%	8.3%	35.1%	-7.4%	7.1%
Starling Marte	18.6%	29.1%	9.7%	35.8%	-8.9%	6.7%
Jason Kipnis	6.9%	30.6%	14.8%	37.1%	7.9%	6.5%
Chris Davis	29.4%	41.4%	21.6%	39.3%	-7.8%	-2.1%
Lorenzo Cain	11.2%	32.2%	12.7%	29.6%	1.5%	-2.6%
Brett Gardner	11.0%	26.2%	8.3%	23.6%	-2.7%	-2.6%
Miguel Cabrera	15.8%	40.1%	19.8%	36.7%	4.0%	-3.4%
Jose Abreu	19.7%	34.2%	10.8%	30.8%	-8.9%	-3.4%
Ryan Braun	20.5%	36.3%	21.5%	32.6%	1.0%	-3.7%
Jason Heyward	12.0%	29.1%	4.7%	25.4%	-7.3%	-3.7%
Prince Fielder	12.2%	32.3%	8.1%	28.5%	-4.1%	-3.8%
Brandon Belt	13.6%	39.8%	9.2%	35.7%	-4.4%	-4.1%
Paul Goldschmidt	22.3%	41.4%	21.3%	37.0%	-1.0%	-4.4%
Adrian Gonzalez	16.4%	36.0%	13.0%	30.6%	-3.4%	-5.4%
Andrew McCutchen	13.6%	39.4%	11.8%	33.1%	-1.8%	-6.3%
Todd Frazier	15.1%	37.4%	22.7%	30.9%	7.6%	-6.5%
Matt Kemp	14.3%	41.6%	18.9%	34.9%	4.6%	-6.7%
Bryce Harper	27.3%	40.9%	17.4%	32.5%	-9.9%	-8.4%

Various News and Notes
It was a pretty slow news day. It wasn’t even that hot of a rumor day, beyond the Blue Jays making their Melvin Upton Jr. acquisition official, landing Joaquin Benoit for Drew Storen, and winning on a walk-off wild pitch in extras. Here’s what we’ve got, though:

Dee Gordon is eligible to return from suspension on Thursday. While he’s ineligible for the playoffs, he may be able to help the Marlins push for a postseason berth, one they currently have a tenuous grasp on. From a fantasy perspective, Gordon is a must re-add if he’s been dropped, which is the case in 16 percent of leagues.

There’s still no clarity on a return for Clayton Kershaw, who said Tuesday “there is a lot of gray area” and that they’ll continue to manage to the symptoms. Here’s hoping he’s back sooner than later.

The Reds continue to shop Jay Bruce, who’s having quite the bounce-back year after two down seasons. That resurgence at the dish was something we warned might be coming before the season but may inflate his value – he’s not a 129 wRC+ hitter, and even at that level of production he’s been worth less than a win so far. If he heads to the AL, he’ll be a top waiver priority in AL-only formats, but hope for a hitter-friendly park to keep the power surge rolling.

Also on the rumor front, the Yankees are thinking “hard” about offers for Carlos Beltran. The Yankees are in a weird purgatory where they don’t seem like a playoff team and have some assets they could sell off (hi, Ivan Nova) but are also “just” four games out of a playoff spot. Big week for them.

Trevor Rosenthal and his 5.13 ERA are off to the DL. He’d been moderately better since being taken out of the closer’s role but something wasn’t right here, and the Cardinals are calling this right shoulder inflammation. Luckily for the Cards, The Final Boss aka Stone Buddha aka Ohmega, Seung Hwan Oh, has been terrific at the back of the pen.

On a final note, shout out to Tyler Skaggs, who made his first MLB start in two years yesterday, throwing seven shutout innings with five strikeouts.

Streaming Pitcher Options
If you enjoy streaming pitchers or play DFS, tune into the Roto Riteup for recommendations each and every day.

A pitcher for today: Archie Bradley @ MIL (Jimmy Nelson)
Much as I’d like to ride the Dylan Bundy train (he looked great last time out and the Rockies aren’t particularly threatening on the road), I like Archie Bradley’s setup just a little better here. Bradley’s in Miller Park, sure, but the Brewers are also the league’s most strikeout-prone team, giving the 23-year-old a nice upside. With a 13-percent ownership tag, the risk-reward play in Bradley is available in most leagues.

A pitcher for tomorrow: Aaron Nola @ ATL (Julio Teheran)
Picking Aaron Nola nearly skirts the rules for inclusion here, as he’s 46-percent owned. But there are only eight arms throwing owned in less than half of leagues, and they’re either bad or in bad setups (or are against the Brewers, and I hate the monotony of recommending back-to-back plays against the same team). If he’s out there for you, Nola boasts a terrific strikeout-to-walk ratio and peripherals that speak to a much better pitcher than his 4.75 ERA would suggest. And, of course, this is the Braves, the league’s worst offense.