Roto Riteup: July 12, 2013
Today’s Roto Riteup was written while enjoying the latest episode of Uhh Yeah Dude. UYD is an excellent comedy podcast, though the explicit tag should be taken seriously, as there is some swearing. Special thanks to Craig Glaser for recommending UYD.
On today’s agenda:
1. Thoughts on Ryan Dempster
2. Evan Gattis begins his rehab assignment
3. A setback for Trevor Cahill
Thoughts on Ryan Dempster
Yesterday Ryan Dempster was lit up for seven runs (four earned) in 3.1 innings against the Seattle Mariners. He struck out four and walked one while allowing nine hits — including a solo home run. Dempster has seen a rise in his walk and home run rates this year to the point where his 4.24 ERA matches his xFIP. While his 60.2% first strike rate is in line with his career norm, his overall 39% Zone% is well below his 46.9% career rate. His strikeouts haven’t dissapeared nor has his 10%+ swinging strikeout rate, so Dempster isn’t finished just yet.
Dempster’s PITCHf/x shows a change in his pitch repertoire. This year he is going to his sinker less while depending on his four-seamer and splitter more. Be it his new pitching style or just small sample size noise, Dempster has served up a few more home runs than one would expect and his 1.63 HR/9 rate is well above his 1.01 career rate. By allowing more walks and serving up more home runs Dempster has lost a lot of his credibility in standard 12-team mixed leagues. He is owned in less than 60% of both ESPN and Yahoo! leagues, though his 78% CBS ownership rate is still healthy.
Both ZiPS and Steamer project Dempster to get the walks and home runs back under control, however neither are too optimistic for his ERA. For now, 36-year-old Dempster can be considered a spot starter. Be careful with his matchups/ballparks and Dempster can deliver some wins as well as some strikeouts.
Evan Gattis begins his rehab assignment
Today Evan Gattis is scheduled to DH for Triple-A Gwinnett. The Atlanta Braves are hopeful that Gattis will be able to join the club for the first series after the All-Star break. Gattis has been a huge surprise with his 14 home runs in 183 plate appearances and he’ll look to grab playing time wherever he can. His less than ideal batting average and on-base percentage is somewhat mitigated by his utility. Gattis has already made enough starts to gain eligibility at catcher as well as left field and he should gain first base eligibility soon. He is still owned in 76% of CBS leagues, however just 43% of Yahoo! formats and 26% of ESPN leagues.
A setback for Trevor Cahill
After being placed on the disabled list for a hip contusion, Trevor Cahill found tightness in his throwing shoulder in recent days. Cahill’s shoulder felt better as recently as Tuesday, however there seems to have been another flare up. The Arizona Diamondbacks have expressed concerns that Cahill could be out until August.
With Tyler Skaggs being optioned down to High-A to stay on track with his normal throwing schedule, he makes for the likely replacement for Cahill. Skaggs should be able to be grabbed in most leagues as he is currently available in over 60% of CBS leagues and over 90% of ESPN and Yahoo! formats.
You can catch David spouting off about baseball, soccer, esports and other things by following him on twitter, @davidwiers.
What do you make of Erasmo Ramirez’s debut yesterday? Obviously he got pounded while walking more batters than I would’ve expected, and he was pitching against a potent Boston lineup, but trying to figure out if he’s a hold in a 12 team roto mixer. Not a lot of solid replacements on the wire, so thinking about holding but wanted to get your thoughts.
If there aren’t any great options on the wire, keep him. I’m not in love with him, I’d like to see more consistent strikeouts, but he is worth holding on to.
Still wondering what you guys think about Kemp ROS with this AC joint irritation business? I don’t mind him going on the DL before the ASB, which I’m assuming was the Dodgers’ mentality for DLing him to give him some rest and avoid reinjury even if it’s not related to the surgery. Having said that, he had homered in back to back games before suffering the irritation and was looking better at the dish over the last month.
He got a PRP on Wednesday. That combined with the rest during the ASB should make Kemp ready to go. I think this is a blip on the radar. I’d buy him for the right price.
Red Sox have the best wRC+ vs RHP. Erasmo just ran into the perfect storm. Def hold.
Yep. He was thrown to the wolves a bit in his first start.
Seatbelts!
Seatbelts!
I love this podcast. It’s my favorite comedy podcast, above The Nerdist and even Comedy Bang! Bang! I’ve heard good things about the WTF podcast, but I’ve never really listened to that yet.
Hey this is a great little advice column! Erasmo burned me yesterday too. What a jerkstore. Y’all think Carlos Villanueva can be trusted today? Or would Saunders (ugh) be a better option for a stream start? Just dropped Carl Crawford today too…worried he’ll suddenly start playing like he did for the Rays, but that’s probably a longshot.
Reply fail. That happens to me once a week or so. See below, sorry!
I wouldn’t start Villanueva against St. Louis. That offense is too strong. Saunders against the Angels isn’t terribly appealing either.
If you just dropped Crawford, I’ll assume you aren’t in a crazy deep league. Maybe Corey Kluber is available to stream today? He’s going against the Royals and is available in 80% of both ESPN and Yahoo! leagues.
…not crazy deep…12 team H2H…I’m starting Puig, A-Jax, & Gomez at OF…have HanRam at UTIL so Crawford just basically a reserve. Had to drop either Rizzo, Wilin Rosario, or Crawford (all bench) to stream…and Crawford was my weakest link…but I am plagued by regret at the moment. No Kluber btw…Villanueva & Saunders best options. Go Saunders?
Ahh, I see. Surprised that no one would trade for Crawford. Anyways, yeah, Saunders is the less of two evils if you’re desperate for wins. Cross your fingers!
crazy, right? no one will trade for Rizzo either…or Rosario…or V-Mart…or HanRam (have Tulo)…pretty tough to improve under such stubborn conditions…
No one wanted Rizzo? What madness is this!?
No one wanted any of those guys? Sounds like a stuffy league…
Safe to drop Rutledge? I have to make room for some DL-returns. Was very high on his upside this season, and he has yet to be optioned down again, but….
He’s a warm body at SS/MI. I wouldn’t drop him yet, as I think his BABIP, though currently in the toilet, should rebound.
10-team, H2H, ESPN points, redraft league:
Traded: Scherzer, Segura, Liriano
Received: Lee, Verlander, H. Kendrick
Figured Scherzer/Lee was a wash, sold high on Liriano, bought low on Verlander, and Segura/Kendrick downgrade was small for my MI spot. Thoughts?
As long as you can take the MI downgrade (which really should only be SB), I like this. Like you said, you pretty much flipped Liriano for Verlander. That’s an A+ trade in my book.
Any value in Kyle Gibson this year? Last two games have been tough.
Gotta like the early signs in his SwStr%. His K rate should come around to 17-18% and right now he is getting BABIP’d to death. I think he’ll stabilize and be useful in 14-team mixed leagues, though 12-teams can probably look elsewhere. He just doesn’t offer the win potential.
I just traded Adam Dunn and Dan Straily for Billy Butley in a keeper points league. Thoughts?
PS: I got Billy, I don’t know if the sentence is well written… (I’m spanish)
Straily is frustrating; I don’t know what to make of him. His AAA numbers suggest he’ll improve on his MLB performance, but I don’t think he’ll be more than a #3/4 starter. In a 10 or 12-team league, that’s near replacement level.
The comparison between Dunn and Butler depends on the points structure of your league. Butler is the safer bet for the rest of the season just given how wildly inconsistent Dunn can be.
However, Butler is not much of a keeper, either. He’s 27 and it seems everyone is still waiting for him to develop 30 HR power. I don’t see that happening. His 29 HR last year looks like the outlier. This year, his HR/FB% and FB% are in line with his career averages, so there’s little to suggest substantial upward regression in his power.
The sentence was perfect!
Straily could come back to haunt in you a year or two, but Butler is a solid improvement on Dunn. Less power, but the average makes all the difference in the world. If you’re trying to win this year, it’s a okay-but-not-great move.
Regarding my Erasmo Ramirez question above, Zack Wheeler is available to pick up. Who would you think has more value going forward – Wheeler or Erasmo?
I’d much prefer Wheeler.
Just tried to trade Lester/Jennings for Scherzer and had it vetoed by my league. Tried to explain that Scherzer has never pitched more than 195 innings and this is a risk for me too, but the league wasn’t buying it. I’m very upset given that (I feel) the veto power should only be used against collusion (which this is not–don’t even know the guy). That said, do you feel this trade is so uneven as to be worthy of veto? I just need to know how upset I should be!
(Of note: I’m tied for first in the league and some people already think I’m cheap because I take out all my pitchers and sacrifice Ks/Ws once I hit the innings minimum and have a good WHIP/ERA because I have a lot of closers. Sorry this is so league-specific!)
Garrett, I don’t think that is veto worthy. You should probably adjust your league constitution.
What do you think about this one….I am in 1st and buying from a seller looking to next year. I am offering Kemp and Teixeira for Gio, Carlos Santana, and Ian Desmond. In our league, I wouldn’t get to keep my haul based on my situation, but my trade partner would get Kemp for 1 year and Teixeira for 2 years in the mid-teens, whereas he can only keep Desmond for 2 years currently in the 22nd round.
Would you make that or not make that from either side?
I wouldn’t give up Desmond at 22 round value. What, is he going to find a better shortstop for a fairer price?
For you, I’d take this deal.
Agree with David. A clever offer, especially if you’ve lost faith in Kemp ever recovering, but I personally wouldn’t give up Desmond at that value.
The veto is basically the “nuclear” option in fantasy leagues. I’ve never vetoed a trade, but we have kicked multiple people out.
I’m surprised any time a league veto’s a trade.
Mr Wiers, love the stuff. Keep it up. Quick SP question for you. ROS: Archer, M Perez, doubront, Nova, Hefner. Pick one. Looking to add SP depth. Thanks!
Gotta go with Archer there.
Thanks – that’s what I was thinking